2023 World Series odds and best bets: Astros, Yankees, Mets pace the pack

The 2023 MLB season is just around the corner with pitchers and catchers reporting to Spring Training today. While we’re still months away from the World Series, it’s time to take a look at where the odds currently stand and if there are any value bets to make. 

At this point in the offseason, most of the major moves have already been made, and while a few free agents are left, we now have a pretty firm understanding of what the teams will look like this season. As a result, we can tell which teams have a real shot to take home the title, which need a few things to break their way, and who has, realistically, no chance. 

Parsing through that will help us determine which bets could be profitable for you in a few months’ time, so let’s dig in. 

2024 World Series Odds

Favorites

The Astros (+600) are no surprise as the betting favorites since they are coming off of their second World Series title in franchise history. The biggest news for them in the offseason was losing Justin Verlander to the New York Mets and while that’s a big loss they do still have a wealth of pitching talent with Framber Valdez, Lance McCullers Jr., Cristian Javier, Jose Urquidy, Luis Garcia, and top prospect Hunter Brown.

The Astros also upgraded at first base from Yuli Gurriel to 2020 AL MVP Jose Abreu, so this should still be an incredibly well-rounded team that will be postseason-bound barring some catastrophic injuries. As a result, they feel like one of the safer bets you can make right now. 

The Dodgers (+800) feel like the next safest bet amongst the favorites, even after a surprising loss to the San Diego Padres in the NLDS. The Dodgers lost Cody Bellinger to the Cubs; although, with the way he’s been playing that is hardly much of a loss, and they did replace his bat in the lineup with veteran J.D. Martinez.

They were able to bring back longtime ace Clayton Kershaw and add Noah Syndergaard on a one-year contract, but the biggest loss is the departure of shortstop Trea Turner, which is why you see the Dodgers sitting with the fourth-bets odds. Still, this team is loaded with talent, so they could easily make a run at the title. 

I’m less enthusiastic about the chance of the Yankees (+700). Yes, they brought back Aaron Judge, which was crucial, and added left-hander Carlos Rodon on a six-year contract. However, Nestor Cortes is already battling a hamstring issue and felloe starter Frankie Montas is likely lost for the year due to shoulder surgery. If the starting rotation isn’t elite then the Yankees could be in trouble because there are major concerns about their offense.

Judge had a career year last year, but the Yankees were inconsistent at best apart from him. Anthony Rizzo and Giancarlo Stanton can be productive hitters, but both carry major injury risk and there’s a good chance that Josh Donaldson is washed. A lot has to break right and the rookies have to be immediate contributors for me to feel good betting on the Yankees at these odds. 

I also don’t love the betting odds for the Mets (+750), even though I prefer them to the Yankees. The Mets have a solid offensive core in Brandon Nimmo, Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil, and Starling Marte, and a pitching staff anchored by Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, which makes me less worried about them losing Jacob deGrom. 

However, the Mets also replaced Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker with Japanese rookie Kodai Senga and journeyman left-hander Jose Quintana, so there remain questions in the back half of the rotation and the end of the lineup. Is Daniel Vogelbach good enough to be a full-time DH? What will they get from Brett Baty and Francisco Alvarez? There remain too many questions to bet them over the Dodgers at this point. 

Contenders

It’s a bit of a surprise to see the Braves (+950) down this low after winning the NL East and then adding catcher Sean Murphy in the offseason. Their only real departure was Dansby Swanson, but they have a solid rookie in  Vaughn Grissom to help fill the void. With Michael Soroka returning to join a rotation headlined by Max Fried, Charlie Morton, and last year’s breakout stars Spencer Strider and Kyle Wright, the Braves look like a great bet at this price. 

The Padres (+1100) are an intriguing bet after making it to the NLDS last year. They still have Juan Soto and Josh Hader and added shortstop Xander Bogaerts to bolster an already-solid lineup that should also see the return of shortstop/right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. They also added Matt Carpenter and Nelson Cruz, but I still have some concerns about the back half of their rotation. Still, they are an intriguing bet given their long odds. 

Dark Horse

The Blue Jays (+1300) are another intriguing long-shot bet after recording their second-straight 90-win season. They have not been able to get over the hump and win a big game in the playoffs, but they improved their defense by adding Daulton Varsho and Kevin Keirmaier to one of the most talented offensive lineups in the AL. Adding Chris Bassitt to their rotation should also help, but the AL East is going to be a grind again, so I think you will likely be able to find better odds for the Blue Jays a few weeks into the season if the Yankees or Rays start out strong.

The Phillies (+1700) are surprising to see ranked so low after making the World Series last year. We know Bryce Harper will miss the start of the season, but the team added Trea Turner to a lineup that already features J.T. Realmuto, Nick Castellanos, Rhys Hoskins, and Kyle Schwarber. They have the talent to keep them in the playoff race until Harper comes back, but there remain questions about the depth in their rotation.

Still, given how long the odds are since Harper is currently injured, it feels like now is the best time to place a bet on the Phillies.