2023 Wurth 400 odds, picks and predictions
The NASCAR Cup Series is at Dover Motor Speedway Sunday for the 2023 Wurth 400. Green flag is scheduled to drop shortly after 1 p.m. ET (FS1), moved up an hour due to inclement weather in the Delaware forecast. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the 2023 Wurth 400 odds, and make our expert NASCAR picks and predictions.
Wurth 400: What you need to know
- Hendrick Motorsports driver Chase Elliott won last season’s stop at Dover, posting an average speed of 104.507 mph, the slowest average winning speed since Sept. 23, 2007
- Elliott has managed 2 victories in 12 career Cup starts at DMS, posting 9 top-5 finishes, 394 laps led and a tremendous 9.8 Average-Finish Position (AFP)
- Elliott’s teammate, Kyle Larson, has also been strong at Dover, going for a win, 7 top-5 runs, 11 top-10 finishes, 899 laps and a 6.9 AFP to lead all active drivers
- New Jersey native Martin Truex Jr. considers Dover his home track and has always done well here, with 3 career Cup checkered flags in the Delaware capital city and an 11.8 AFP in 32 starts
- Richard Childress Racing driver Kyle Busch, fresh off his win at Talladega, looks to go back-to-back. He has 3 career Cup wins in 34 Dover starts, posting 1,316 laps led with a 14.0 AFP
- Team Penske’s Austin Cindric made his 1st Cup start at Dover last season, and it was a disaster, finishing 36th
- Front Row Motorsports driver Michael McDowell has struggled in his career at Dover, posting a dismal 31.0 AFP with 9 DNFs in 22 Cup starts
- TrackHouse Racing’s Ross Chastain has also had his issues on the cement at Dover, posting a 25.3 AFP with 1 DNF in 8 Cup runs
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Wurth 400 – Expert pick(s)
BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:58 a.m. ET.
CHASE ELLIOTT (+600) is a strong play at this price point, as he is the defending champ, and he has run well at this track in his career. In fact, Hendrick Motorsports, in general, is usually in contention. Both Elliott and favorite KYLE LARSON (+400) should be at the top of everybody’s list for the win on Sunday. Elliott obviously represents the better value, however.
Wurth 400 – Long shot
It’s hard to believe, as KYLE BUSCH (+1200) has 2 wins, but he has some rather long odds Sunday. He is coming off a checkered flag showing on the superspeedway at Talladega, and now he arrives at one of his better tracks.
Busch has won 3 times at Dover, while cashing in the Top 5 on 13 occasions. Yes, he has 7 DNFs at the Monster Mile, but he also has been out front of the pack for 1,316 laps. He knows how to win here, so it’s rather surprising to see such long odds.
Wurth 400 prop pick(s)
CHASE ELLIOTT (-175) over Ross Chastain
You’ll have to eat a little chalk here, but the risk is worth it.
As mentioned, Elliott is the defending champ, and he has been one of the best at Dover in his 12 career Cup starts. He has led 394 laps, winning this race twice, while 75% (9-of-12) of his starts have resulted in top-5 finishes.
Chastain has just a single top-5 finish with a DNF in 8 career Cup starts, posting a dismal 25.3 AFP. This should be easy money for backers of the No. 9 Chevy machine.
TOP TOYOTA – MARTIN TRUEX JR. (+230)
Truex picked up his 1st-ever Cup Series win at Dover at the Autism Speaks 400 on June 4, 2007, and this has always been a special track for him.
While he was collected in “The Big One” at Talladega last week, tumbling to 27th, he had 3 consecutive finishes of 11th or better prior to ‘Dega. That includes a 3rd-place showing at Martinsville 2 weeks ago, his best finish of the season in a points race. Look for Truex to show out at one of his favorite tracks.
