2024 Baseball Hall of Fame voting: Eight things to know about potentially dramatic reveal, plus predictions

The results of the Baseball Hall of Fame vote, from the BBWAA ballot, will be revealed on Tuesday evening. We already know that manager Jim Leyland is headed in after the Contemporary Baseball Era Committee elected him back in December. Which players will join him? This is the vote that'll reveal those results. 

2024 Baseball Hall of Fame vote details

• Time: 6 p.m. ET | Date: Tuesday, Jan. 23
• TV channel: MLB Network
• Live stream: fubo (try for free)

Let's dive into the biggest storylines from the vote and conclude with a prediction on the 2024 Hall of Fame class. As always when it comes to projecting Hall of Fame results, Ryan Thibodaux's Ballot Tracker is heavily used.

1. Beltré to fly in with ease

Among publicly revealed ballots so far, only two voters have left Adrián Beltré off. Both voted for just Alex Rodriguez and Manny Ramirez (we'll get to them). Regardless of any reason for or against a Beltré vote, we know that he will not be inducted unanimously but will get in on his first attempt. 

2. Sheffield falls off

This isn't a done deal, as there's still an incredibly minute sliver of a chance that Gary Sheffield makes it in. There's about a 99.99% chance he doesn't get to 75% of the vote, however, meaning Sheffield will have gone through his maximum of 10 years on the ballot without gaining induction to the Hall. It's hard to see a veteran/era committee any time soon that puts Sheff in, so that is that. He's likely to end up with around 2/3 of the vote, which just isn't good enough to get in. 

I'm pro-Sheffield and have made his case numerous times, including here. 

3. Mauer likely in

Joe Mauer was one of those candidates where I wasn't sure if the voting body would favor him highly enough for a first-year induction, but the returns right now look like he's going to make it in. He's been polling with around 5/6ths (83.3%) of the vote since ballots were sent out. The biggest drops between public and private ballots are in the 7-8% range, so it's entirely possible that Mauer ends up in the low-70s and misses induction this season. The odds are in his favor at this point, though. 

4. Helton, Wagner close

Here's the major drama. 

Todd Helton got 72.2% of the vote last year and he's only gained a few new voters while also having lost some. It really seems like he'll be in the mid-70s and, remember, he needs 75% to get in. It's going down to the wire. I discussed Helton's candidacy here.

That could also be the case with Billy Wagner. He has a ton of momentum and got to 68.1% last season. He has gained more than a handful of voters, but is still polling slightly below Helton. It looks like there's a chance Wagner works his way up into the mid-70s, but he could still fall shy of 75%. I talked Wagner, along with several others, here. 

5. Jones should be within striking range

While I don't have much confidence in a prediction either way on Helton or Wagner, I'm very confident that Andruw Jones won't make it in this time around. He will, however, get right within range to where it's realistic for him to make it next year. He's arguably the greatest defensive center fielder ever and could also hit plenty. 

6. A-Rod, Manny, stagnate

Alex Rodriguez and Manny Ramirez have statistical cases that easily align with a Hall of Fame resume, but they are also bogged down with PED suspensions. While the voting body continues to evolve, albeit slowly, toward a more new-school bloc, neither of these candidates is gaining any momentum. Manny appears to be stuck around 1/3 of the vote while A-Rod has a chance to get to 40% in his third year. I think he falls short of it, but even if he makes it there, it doesn't appear to be enough movement from his first year (34.3% in 2022) to believe it's meaningful. I dived deeper into this topic here.

7. Momentum for Beltrán?

Carlos Beltrán has the numbers that say he should be a Hall of Famer and I've covered as much. He also has the 2017 Astros sign-stealing scandal and it helped to keep him at 46.5% last year in his first time on the ballot. He could use a decent jump this year in order to have some optimism for his future chances at induction. He has gained a good chunk of votes so far and it looks like he'll easily clear 55% and maybe even get to 60%. If that's the case, I'd say he'll make it pretty soon. 

8. Strong first showing for Utley

Similar to Mauer, but with a lesser case, I've been extremely curious on Chase Utley and how he'll fare here in his first time on the ballot. At this point, we can be sure he will not make it in this year but he'll also remain safely on the ballot. It appears he'll sit around the 40% range and while that isn't a sure thing by any stretch, we've seen a decent number of players come in lower than that on their first ballot and still make the Hall of Fame eventually. Assuming the returns right now aren't fluky and Utley does come in around 40%, his chances of one day making it are pretty solid.

Predictions

Beltré is obviously in and he'll get more than 95% of the vote. Mauer will make it, too. I'll say Helton gets in while Wagner gets within just a few percentage points, maybe even within 1%. Sheffield will fall short while Jones and Beltrán pave the way for enshrinement within the next few years. 

That means the 2024 Hall of Fame class will be as follows, and I'll predict their percentages in parentheses: 

• Adrián Beltré (97.6)
• Joe Mauer (79.9)
• Todd Helton (75.1)
• Jim Leyland