Colorado Rockies news: For Rockies Jones, Doyle, and Tovar, the odds are against a sophomore slump

I know it exists. It’s very real. And yet, I didn’t allow the idea to penetrate my hope-springs-eternal mindset going into the 2024 Major League Baseball season. I’ve been dreaming of full seasons for Nolan Jones and Brenton Doyle and the new heights they could reach. I’m excited about watching the glove work continue to amazing and seeing the power grow in Ezequiel Tovar’s second year.

That allusion of purely positive improvement was shattered when I read Kenneth Weber’s Purple Row article on Feb. 12 about all the projections that the Rockies will be the worst team in baseball this season. I wasn’t so far gone from reality in imagining a .500 record or anything, but hopes of seven or eight more wins and some fun players were at least making me not completely dread the season.

In putting all my eggs in the Jones-Doyle-Tovar basket, I forgot about the possibility of the sophomore slump until Kenneth mentioned it. He’s right. It’s really hard to not only live up to the hype after an impressive rookie campaign, but it’s also daunting to make the needed adjustments to counteract the changes that opposing pitchers and baserunners will make. Matching the numbers of 2023 will be hard. Going even higher? That’s a very high bar.

Then, I wondered about the history of sophomore seasons for standout Rockies who claimed a starting spot in their rookie seasons. Do Colorado Rockies commonly suffer from diminished success in their second year? Or, have they been able to avoid the dip? Would looking at the past help shine a light on the chances of Jones, Doyle, and Tovar continuing down a promising path?

With 31 seasons of Rockies stats, it’s too much to look at every impactful rookie. So, I narrowed it down to make it a little more manageable. To be considered in the list, players have to have at least 130 at-bats in consecutive seasons (this rules out David Dahl), but also really have taken over a starting role with 90 or more games by their second season in the league. This also excludes Charlie Blackmon, whose official rookie season was in 2012, but he didn’t have over 130 at-bats until 2013. For fairness's sake, I am not counting 2020 (rules out Garrett Hampson, Sam Hilliard). For comparison's sake, both seasons also have to be with the Rockies.

While I know I didn’t get everyone who qualified, I picked 11 players who fit the criteria. From newest to oldest, they include two current Rockies, four current MLB players, and one Hall of Famer. The group we’re looking at is Brendan Rodgers, Ryan McMahon, Trevor Story, Wilin Rosario, Dexter Fowler, Troy Tulowitzki, Brad Hawpe, Cory Sullivan, Matt Holliday, and Todd Helton.

Snapshot: Rockies Rookie vs. Sophomore Seasons

By my holistic analysis, I think six of them improved in their sophomore seasons (McMahon, Arenado, Rosario, Hawpe, Holliday, and Helton), one stayed about the same (Fowler), and four fell victim to the sophomore slump (Rodgers, Story, Tulo, and Sully). That gives us 2:1 odds that Jones, Doyle, and Tovar will play better or about the same in 2024 as they did in 2023. Another way to look at it is that, hopefully, at least two of them will be as good or better than in their rookie seasons — if history has established any kind of pattern.

This methodology would be rejected by Las Vegas and any kind of credible study, but it’s baseball. So trends, luck, and superstition all have a valid seat at the table.

Overall, the FanGraphs ZiPS projections have Doyle’s average going up 40 points from 2023 to .243, Tovar jumping from .253 to .263, and Jones regressing from .297 to .279. The three combined for 45 homers with Jones leading the way with 20, Tovar adding 15, and Doyle chipping in 10 in 2023. In 2024, the projections put the trio’s total at 57. Their combined runs batted in are set to increase from 183 to 228. Those runs could really help the Rockies this year. That’s meaningful improvement.

Rockies Rookie Sensations vs. Sophomore Projections

The biggest jumps from rookie to second season have historically come from McMahon and Hawpe with pretty darn impressive gains from Arenado, Holliday, and Helton. If Jones, Doyle, and Tovar can avoid the struggles Story faced or the injuries Tulo faced in year two, they will give the Rockies a lot to cheer for in 2024. Even if they prove to be steady like Fowler, that would be considered a win.

★ ★ ★

Thomas Harding has come up with a great phrase to capture the mindset of the Rockies starting rotation on Thursday when pitchers and catchers reported to Scottsdale: “Camp ChipOnTheShoulder.” Kyle Freeland, the competitor, wants to live up to his contract. Gomber wants to prove he can be consistent. Cal Quantrill and Dakota Hudson want to show their former teams that they made a mistake by letting them go. In addition to motivating quotes from the starters, he’s also got insight into what changes they have made and how they are prepping for success in 2024.

Tanner Vogt makes some predictions about two pitchers and a switch hitter who he thinks will start the season in Albuquerque. With too many infielders and four pitchers battling for the fourth and fifth spots in the starting rotation, not everyone will make it.

Elected in 2015, Rob Manfred announced on Thursday that he’ll be stepping down in 2029 when his third term concludes. This article recaps all the action from Florida as the Grapefruit League gets underway and the commissioner discusses the new uniforms, streaming, the future of the A’s, and more.

★ ★ ★

Please keep in mind our Purple Row Community Guidelines when you’re commenting. Thanks!