2024 F1 betting preview, Bahrain Grand Prix odds: Max Verstappen is still the king

Every time a new Formula One season begins, hope is a common trait among drivers and teams. Hope that the car improved in the offseason and things will be different. However, the betting odds show that the 2024 season might be more about “same as it ever was” than any real reason for hope.

Max Verstappen is an overwhelming favorite to win the championship and is a significant favorite to win this weekend’s opening race in Bahrain. Verstappen is a whopping -600 (1-to-6) on BetMGM to win his fourth straight championship. The implied odds give Verstappen better than an 85 percent chance of winning the championship before a race even starts. Oh boy.

The constructor side is no different with Red Bull a staggering -650 to win the championship for the third straight season. Preseason testing seemed to indicate Red Bull dominance is here to stay as well.

Verstappen’s teammate, Sergio Pérez, is the favorite to finish second, with +125 (5-to-4) odds in the winner without Verstappen bet, ahead of Charles Leclerc (+225, 9-to-4).

The odds don’t offer confidence that this season will be more competitive than the last. The way the odds are now suggests very few expected changes in the pecking order overall. Ferrari is second in the odds to win the constructors’ championship, but is a +600 (6-to-1) longshot. The Italian team largely outperformed Mercedes on track, especially in the second half of the season, but had four retirements, a disqualification and two did not starts. Mercedes had four retirements and a disqualification. Those two extra did not starts are a massive difference when Ferrari was three points behind Mercedes for second at the end of the season.

Mercedes is next at +800, followed by McLaren (+1200) and then a dropoff to Aston Martin (+6600). Aston Martin started hot last year but was the fifth-best team by the end of the season. In other words, the odds are predicting more of the same with more hope that Ferrari will be able to have reliability catch up to performance.

As for this weekend’s season-opening race in Bahrain, Verstappen is the clear favorite. His -300 (1-to-3) odds are not as dominant as the season-long ones, but for a single race that is about as dominant as you will see in a season opener.

Bahrain Grand Prix odds

Odds update live and are from BetMGM.

Verstappen’s win here last year was his first victory at Bahrain International Circuit. Madeline Coleman has a full track breakdown, which notes the circuit in Sakhir has long straights and fairly tight corners. Three DRS zones should allow for passing opportunities.

This opening race takes place on Saturday, with the traditional race weekend schedule being moved up a day. Next week’s Saudi Arabia Grand Prix had to take place on Saturday, March 9 to avoid a conflict with the start of Ramadan and there must be at least seven days between races so the Bahrain Grand Prix had to shift forward a day as well.

Lights out is scheduled for 10 a.m. EST and will air on ESPN and ESPN+.

The Ferrari and Mercedes cars appeared to have an edge ahead of McLaren and Aston Martin in the battle for second. That’s reflected in the odds with all six Red Bull, Ferrari and Mercedes drivers in the top six spots. Fernando Alonso is just ahead of Lando Norris after that.

In another trend returning from last year, Leclerc is closer to Verstappen in the pole position odds. Verstappen is “only” -155 to win qualifying while Leclerc is +250. Leclerc took pole position five times last season, only Verstappen had more with 12, including in three of the last five races last season.