2024 Farmers Insurance Open Sleeper Picks & Predictions

Luke List's second PGA Tour victory came here at Torrey Pines in 2022 and he just so happens to be rounding into form in time for the 2024 edition. He highlights our best Farmers Insurance Open sleeper picks.

In a lot of ways, the 2024 PGA Tour season starts this week in San Diego with the Farmers Insurance Open. The past three events have been birdie contests, but that all changes at Torrey Pines Golf Course. 

Additionally, it's also a rare event that always starts on Wednesday and finishes on Saturday to avoid going head-to-head with NFL Conference Championships on Sunday. 

Xander Schauffele is the consensus betting favorite, while Patrick Cantlay, Max Homa, and Collin Morikawa slot in just behind him to form a clear top tier in the Farmers Insurance Open odds.

This is another event where I’m recommending quarter-unit bets in the outright market for the following sleepers and long shots. There are plus-money golf odds available to back the following golfers with a finishing position bet.

Here are my free golf picks for this week’s Farmers Insurance Open, including a trio of Top-40 picks.

2024 Farmers Insurance Open sleeper picks

• Luke List outright (+8,000 at FanDuel)
• Shane Lowry outright (+8,000 at FanDuel)
• Austin Eckroat outright (+15,000 at FanDuel)
• Luke List Top 40 (+110 at bet365)
• Shane Lowry Top 40 (+100 at bet365)
• Austin Eckroat Top 40 (+163 at BetRivers)

Picks were made on 1/23/2024 at 11:30 a.m. ET.

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2024 Farmers Insurance Open and Torrey Pines key stats

Three of the four rounds are played at Torrey’s South course, which is considerably more challenging than the North. Each player will play the North once on either Wednesday or Thursday, and it’s proven pivotal to capitalize on the easier layout.

Weather and length are the top defenses of the South course, and the forecast isn't calling for rain or prohibitive winds during this week’s event.

Additionally, the track’s narrow fairways haven't always catered to bombers despite the course stretching a demanding 7,765 yards. After all, Patrick Reed, Marc Leishman, and Brendt Snedeker (twice) have all won here, and distance isn’t a notable strength for any of them. It shouldn’t be ignored entirely, either.

Strong long-iron play, a solid short game, and avoiding squares on the card have been the keys to success for prior winners. Additionally, capitalizing on the Par 5s has been paramount the past two years, with 13 of the 20 players finishing inside the Top 10 having a birdie or better on at least eight of the 16 Par 5s.

I’m also prioritizing bogey avoidance, strokes gained around the green, strokes gained putting, and especially strokes gained tee to green. Only seven players were able to finish in the Top 20 without gaining strokes tee-to-green the past two years, after all.

• Strokes gained tee to green
• Strokes gained off the tee
• Par-5 scoring
• Bogey avoidance
• Strokes gained around the green

2024 Farmers Insurance Open sleeper predictions

Luke List to win outright (+8,000)

The 2022 Farmers Insurance Open winner will and should be a popular target for punters this week. List heads to Torrey Pines in respectable form, and he’s a proven course fit.

Including his victory, List has six consecutive Top-40 results and another three Top 25s. He’s also played the weekend in nine straight events dating back to the summer and picked up his second career win at the Sanderson Farms Championship in October.

Of course, the real draw here is his length and tee game. He ranked ninth in strokes gained off the tee and 31st in strokes gained tee-to-green last season, and there’s also statistical correction ahead of his Par-5 scoring. His 43.15% Par-5 birdie-or-better percentage last year was way below the 46.03% and 50.33% marks he posted over the previous two seasons, and he’s already at 62.5% through two 2024 events.

Finally, List finished fourth in strokes gained approach when he won in 2022, and he’s gained true strokes on the field in both events this season. The knock with List is his short game, but it’s more than priced into these long odds given his track record at Torrey, current form, and ball-striking prowess. 

Pick: Luke List to win outright (+8,000 at FanDuel, 0.25 units)
Pick: Luke List Top 40 (+110 at bet365)

Shane Lowry to win outright (+8,000)

The Irishman has the game to play well here and has a knack for taking what the course gives you and patiently taking advantage of scoring opportunities when they present themselves on difficult tracks. Additionally, he has some familiarity with the event and strung together T7-T13-T33 finishes from 2015-2017.

Don’t fret about his missed cut at The American Express, either. Birdie contests don’t fit his skillset, and Lowry posted three consecutive Top-20 finishes on the DP World Tour this fall preceding last week’s blip on the radar.

Above all, I value the lack of weaknesses in Lowry’s bag. He's accurate off the tee and has a solid short game. None of his numbers are going to jump off the page, but he’s gained strokes on this field across the board over his past 18 measured rounds.

It’s also notable that he’s priced in the +3,500 to +5,000 range in all four major championships this season, so we’re receiving a fair number here for the Farmers. This isn't a major championship field, after all.

Pick: Shane Lowry to win outright (+8,000 at FanDuel, 0.25 units)
Pick: Shane Lowry Top 40 (+100 at bet365)

Austin Eckroat to win outright (+15,000)

An inconsistent 2023 rookie season was highlighted by four Top-10 finishes, including a T2 at the Byron Nelson and a T10 at the U.S. Open.

Eckroat also heads to San Diego in solid form. He’s made five consecutive cuts and he gained strokes across the board at the Amex last week and has gained strokes off the tee in each of his past three events where ShotLink data was measured.

The strong tee game is nothing new and reinforced by ranking No. 1 in total driving this season after finishing 17th last year. Eckroat also ranks 21st in true strokes gained tee-to-green in this field across his past 20 rounds. His 54th finish in bogey avoidance (14.46%) was also comfortably better than the PGA Tour average (16.18%).

This will be the 25-year-old Americans' third trip to the Farmers, so despite missing the cut the past two years, Ekroat’s current form is fit for a flier ticket. He had a strong amateur career, and now he’s finding his way at the highest level.

Pick: Austin Eckroat to win outright (+15,000 at FanDuel, 0.25 units)
Pick: Austin Eckroat Top 40 (+163 at BetRivers)