Farmers Insurance Open 2024 picks and best bets for PGA Tour golf this week

Some weeks just don't go as planned. On one hand, you come out with your PGA Tour expert picks and get struck out thanks to some Sunday falls down the leaderboard. And then in an unrelated hand, you head to a wedding out of town only to come back and find that your internet is out. Both of these were my plight in the past week, but now, it's onto the Farmers Insurance Open with good vibes and internet firing at the best speeds northern New Mexico has to offer.

As mentioned, The American Express was not kind in regards to our betting card. Patrick Cantlay, who's also in the field this week for the Farmers Insurance Open, collapsed on Sunday to really rip up a Top 20 parlay, while J.T. Poston came up short of a Top 10, but only barely. It's not been the best of starts for PGA Tour expert picks and best bets, but then again, with three extreme longshot winners, it's been an unpredictable 2024 thus far in golf.

So now we head to the familiar confines of Torrey Pines, a place where good driving -- either long or accurate -- strong approach and the ability to pop putting-wise on poa annua is crucial. It's also another PGA Tour event with a two-course rotation for the week... only this time, we also get a Wednesday start on top of that.

Let's dive into it and try to make up some ground with our Farmers Insurance Open picks and best bets for the golf this week on the PGA Tour.

Golf betting record in 2024 through American Express One and Done Total for 2024: $1,055,355 (Sungjae Im at the AmEx, $63,980)

Top 10 pick for the Farmers Insurance Open: Jason Day (+260)

Even when Jason Day wasn't in top form, Torrey Pines was still kind to him. In the last five years, the Aussie has five starts here that have resulted in four Top 20 finishes and three finishes of T7 or better. Last week at The AmEx, he also showed what I would love to see from him in terms of form, gaining 1.41 strokes from tee-to-green, but losing with the putter. The flat stick should cooperate with him and his newfound baggy clothing at Torrey Pines where he's exceptionally comfortable, so this number for a Top 10 is tasty.

Outright Winner pick for the Farmers Insurance Open (0.5 Units): Collin Morikawa (+1100)

With the rain that has soaked Torrey Pines throughout this past week, I suspect that we'll have lift, clean, and place in effect for the first two rounds. It also means that we could be looking for accurate, though not necessarily long, drivers of the ball who can play target practice at the greens. So that's how we land on Collin Morikawa as our outright pick this week. Yes, the odds are short in what has been the year of the longshot thus far, but Morikawa finished T3 here last year and was also crushing at The Sentry, gaining 2.12 strokes tee-to-green. This fit feels right and he's going to show up well.

One and Done pick for the Farmers Insurance Open: Luke List

Playing Luke List in any capacity can be a bit of a tricky proposition simply with how bad he can be with the putter, which is what we saw last week at The AmEx as he lost 1.43 strokes on the greens. Torrey Pines and the Farmers Insurance Open, however, has been far more kind to him than any other place. He won in 2022 but has finished Top 25 in each of the past three years and Top 40 each of the past five years. With the way he's striking the ball right now, I'm willing to bank on him in One and Done.

Will Zalatoris to finish Top 40 at the Farmers Insurance Open (+135)

I picked on Will Zalatoris in his PGA Tour return a couple of weeks ago at the Sony and he indeed missed the cut. However, I'm starting to see some signs. Though his driving has been erratic since he returned, we've seen players be okay with long and wild at Torrey Pines if they can make up for it on approach. Zalatoris gained 1.38 strokes on approach last week and had a second-place and T7 finish in 2022 and 2021 here. Getting plus odds for an uber-talented player who might be trending in the right way for only a Top 40 is too good to pass up.

Luke List to finish Top 20 at the Farmers Insurance Open (+260)

Back to Luke List and for good reason. I almost had him as a Top 10 play at +600 (which I still don't hate), but we're playing it just a tad bit safer with the Top 20 and still good odds. List is gaining 1.22 strokes tee-to-green over his last 24 rounds and, though the putter remains volatile, he's had some nice weeks there by his low standards. Now, returning to a place where he's thrived, I love for him to do so once again.

Luke List and Taylor Pendrith to both finish Top 40 at the Farmers Parlay (+396)

If Luke List plays poorly this week, we are going to be hurting, but I'm all-in. Now we have him parlayed with Taylor Pendrith for him to finish just Top 40. Pendrith is as volatile as List but his game also fits Torrey Pines extremely well. Plus, he's been a positive player in every strokes gained category over his last 24 rounds, even with some missed cuts mixed in there. Though he was only T60 here last year, he was Top 20 in 2022. I like for him and List to both take advantage this week at the Farmers.

Longshot pick to win the Farmers Insurance Open (0.1 Units): Akshay Bhatia (+9000)

Don't be deterred by Akshay Bhatia shooting 12-under over three days and missing the cut at The AmEx. It's cooking right now for the talented youngster. His ball-striking should be a great fit to take advantage of Torrey Pines if he's on and he can get hot with the putter. As a longshot, we could go deeper, but I think there's value on this number with Bhatia.