2024 MLB Cy Young predictions, odds: NL & AL futures bets to lock in
The 2024 MLB season is about to hit us like a fastball — before that happens, let’s dive into the MLB Cy Young futures bets you should lock in right now.
Spencer Strider is a worthy favorite for the National League Cy Young, and even at +500 is a solid option.
He’s added a curveball to his arsenal, and is looking to increase the usage of his changeup as well. Have fun trying to cheat on his absurd fastball with that in mind.
He projects to lead the NL in WAR from the pitching position, and he is the favorite to lead the league in wins (+700) on a stacked Braves side.
Still, pitchers will need to pitch around 175 innings to have a good chance in the Cy Young race.
Even for a pitcher as dominant as Strider, running relatively well in terms of BABIP will be important as well.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto has to be mentioned here, as he could be right in the mix for the NL Cy Young and has become a trendy pick.
Many respected analysts consider him bettable at +1200, and the upside is obviously there.
It may not be a strategy that works out for me because one or two strong starts could make his price plummet, but I am looking to wait and see how his MLB career begins before jumping in.
It’s also important to note that Kodai Senga will start the injured reserve, which is why his number has trended down to +2000 from a consensus price in the +1200 range pre-injury.
One or two excellent starts could also have a similar effect on Hunter Greene’s betting price, but I’m not waiting to jump in because I think +4000 is the best we might see.
On the good days last season, it was plain to see that his electric stuff could be nearly untouchable.
A propensity to allow a ton of home runs, as well as blowup innings lead to a 4.82 ERA despite generating 12.21 K/9 last season.
Greene has added a splitter this offseason, and the early reports on it are really strong.
Per Eno Sarris, Greene’s splitter owns a 128 Stuff+ rating in spring training thus far.
If he can look to improve in terms of sequencing and keep some more meatballs out over the plate, Greene holds sky-high potential this season based on the nearly unparalleled quality of his stuff.
Pitching at Great American Ballpark half the time is a flaw with this bet, but at +4000 I believe we have the right number to look past that and buy on Greene’s upside.
There are just enough question marks around Gerrit Cole, as well as a number of high-upside American League pitchers, for me to feel his price is only fair at +500.
He still owned his lowest strikeout rate since leaving Pittsburgh at 27 percent and overachieved his 3.48 xERA.
He’s thrown a ton of innings over the last three seasons,and could be due for some lesser luck in terms of injuries at age 33.
It’s scary to nitpick Cole, but +500 doesn’t project to hold much value to me.
Tarik’s Skubal’s price has trended downwards all offseason, but he is still a solid option at +1400.
The big question for Skubal will be if he can pitch the 175-plus innings needed to win the award.
He pitched just 80 innings last season after a preseason flexor tendon surgery, and has never pitched more than 150 in a season.
Betting on him ending up on the high end of his innings pitched projection is worth it, though, because of how dominant he has been when in the lineup.
He put up a 2.58 xFIP and 2.28 xERA to go alongside his actual ERA of 2.80 last season.
Skubal has pitched to a Stuff+ of 119 across five innings of work in spring training thus far, which has added to the hype around a potential full-blown breakout season.
George Kirby is another candidate in a similar price range that should end up in the mix.
He was priced at +7500 prior to last season and hung around in the race until the very end of the season, offering a good sweat to bettors like myself.
He gets the benefit in a pitcher friendly ballpark, and is entering his true prime at age 26.
Kirby did outperform a 3.63 xFIP last season, but his 109 Pitching+ tied for first among AL pitchers and suggests his expected rates could improve.
