2023 MLB betting preview: Pitching futures predictions for wins, strikeouts and saves
At this time a year ago, Kyle Wright’s MLB pitching résumé read like this: 21 regular-season appearances, 16 starts and a 2-8 record over parts of four seasons.
Today, the Atlanta Braves right-hander is the only pitcher on the planet who can say he was a 20-game winner in 2023. Not only that, but Wright finished three victories ahead of his closest pursuer (three-time American League Cy Young winner Justin Verlander).
The only people more stoked than Wright about his stunning 21-5 record last season? Sportsbook operators, all of whom cleaned up on the most pitching wins prop — because nobody invested in the little-known Alabama native.
Will another out-of-nowhere long shot finish atop the pitching wins leaderboard in 2023? Or will it be a household name like in 2018, when Verlander had a league-high 21 victories?
Read on for our pick to finish with the most pitching wins in 2023, along with predictions for the pitchers to record the most strikeouts and most saves.
Odds updated as of 1:30 a.m. ET on March 29.
2023 MLB pitching futures: Most wins
Prediction: Framber Valdez
Best odds: +1600 (BetMGM)
2022 leader: Wright (21 wins)
There’s probably no more arbitrary statistic in modern-era baseball than pitching wins. The reason? Starting pitchers rarely are allowed to pitch deep into games anymore.
That’s not to say that predicting which pitcher will finish the season with the most victories is a total crapshoot. But it isn’t easy.
A few factors we lean on when handicapping the field:
Does the pitcher have a history of taking the ball every fifth day, or is he a frequent visitor to the injured list?
Is the pitcher a workhorse (or at least a modern-day version of one) who eats up innings, sticking around long enough to qualify for victories?
And does the pitcher play for a quality team, particularly one with a potent offense and strong bullpen?
The starter we like who checks all those boxes this season is southpaw Framber Valdez, the Houston Astros’ new ace after Verlander bolted for the Mets in the offseason.
Valdez is coming off his best season (17-6, 2.82 ERA). He finished fifth in innings pitched (201 1/3), tied for third in victories and obviously plays on a loaded Astros team that won 106 games in 2022 and is projected to finish in the mid-90s this season.
Valdez is tied for third in odds to have the most wins at Caesars Sportsbook. He and two New York hurlers — the Yankees’ Carlos Rodon and the Mets’ Max Scherzer — are +1200. That trio trails only the Yankees’ Gerrit Cole (+700) and the Brewers’ Corbin Burnes (+800).
But BetMGM has Valdez as the co-fourth choice at +1600, along Atlanta’s Max Fried and Cleveland’s Shane Bieber.
Like Wright’s chance to repeat? You can get him at +4000 at both BetMGM and Caesars. Meanwhile, Verlander’s best price is +1600 at Caesars.
2023 MLB pitching futures: Most strikeouts
Prediction: Sandy Alcantara
Best odds: +2500 (Caesars Sportsbook)
2022 leader: Gerrit Cole (257 strikeouts)
Cole is the consensus favorite to lead all pitchers in strikeouts for the second straight season and third time in the last five years. The Yankees’ right-hander has +550 odds at BetMGM, Caesars and FanDuel.
Milwaukee’s Burnes — whose 243 Ks in 2022 led the National League and were 14 fewer than Cole — is the clear-cut +800 second choice at all three sportsbooks (although FanDuel has Burnes tied with Braves flame-thrower Spencer Strider; BetMGM and Caesars have Strider alone in third at +900).
But we’re going down the board a bit and rolling the dice on reigning National League Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara — and a bomb of a price.
The Marlins right-hander meets the two main criteria you’re looking for in a strikeout king — the same criteria we referenced in the wins-leader section above: He consistently takes his turn in the rotation and sticks around for the long haul.
In the last three 162-game MLB seasons — 2019, 2021 and 2022 — Alcantara made 32, 33 and 32 starts. He pitched at least 197 innings each year, topping out an MLB-leading 228 2/3 last year.
Additionally, Alcantara’s strikeout numbers have improved along the way, from 151 to 201 to 207 (the latter being the eighth-most in 2022).
Alcantara does pitch in a division with three teams — the Phillies, Braves and Mets — that are loaded offensively. But those three squads also have a lot of free-swingers. Plus, he’ll get a bunch of starts against the lowly Nationals.
Alcantara is 20-to-1 or better at all three sportsbooks, but Caesars offers the best odds at +2500.
2023 MLB pitching futures: Most saves
Prediction: Camilo Doval
Best odds: +800 (at BetMGM)
2022 leader: Emmanual Clase (42 saves)
If you’ve ever played fantasy baseball, you know there’s no more frustrating position than that of closer.
Gone are the days of Mariano Riveria and Trevor Hoffman— you know, elite-level, shutdown closers whose jobs were secure from the first pitch in April till the last pitch in October.
Whether it’s impatient, trigger-happy general managers who can’t tolerate a couple of rough outings, or numbers geeks playing the closer-by-committee matchup game, many teams these days have a revolving ninth-inning door.
All of which has made it nearly impossible to forecast who will lead the league in saves. And if you think that’s an exaggeration, chew on this: Cleveland’s Emmanual Clase in 2022 became the 10th different saves leader in the last 10 years.
Clase is favored to snap that streak in 2023 — but only barely. Among Caesars, FanDuel and BetMGM, the latter is the only one taking saves-leader action and it has Clase at +600 to repeat. However, six other closers are right behind him:
Toronto’s Jordan Romano (+700), San Francisco’s Camilo Doval (+800), San Diego’s Josh Hader (+800), Pittsburgh’s David Bednar (+1000), Houston’s Ryan Pressly (+1100) and Atlanta’s Raisel Iglesias (+1200).
There’s a good chance the winner comes from that group. And our money is on Doval, for two primary reasons.
First, he should have a very long leash after posting a 2.53 ERA last year and finishing with 27 saves in 30 chances.
Secondly, the Giants, who slipped from 107 wins in 2021 to 81-81 last year, should be somewhat improved in 2023. But because of a mediocre-at-best offense, most of San Francisco’s wins are going to be in close games — the kind that require a steady closer.
The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.
