Braves vs Mets Prediction, Picks, Odds

With Yonny Chirinos toeing the rubber for the Braves, the Mets have their best shot at winning a game in this otherwise lopsided four-game set. We're steering clear of the moneyline, though, and opting to lean on a ton of offense in our betting picks.

The New York Mets and Atlanta Braves will wrap up their weekend series tonight on Sunday Night Baseball.

The Braves have recently dominated the Mets, and this series has been no different. It started with Atlanta blanking the Mets for a 7-0 win on Friday Night, despite starting pitcher Charlie Morton walking an eye-popping seven batters. Things got significantly worse in Saturday's doubleheader when the Braves outscored the Metropolitans 27-3 over the two games. Atlanta will be looking for the four-game sweep tonight to improve on its +21 run differential in this series. 

Read on for my best bet and full MLB picks and predictions for Braves vs. Mets on Sunday, August 13th.

Braves vs Mets odds

Braves vs Mets predictions

There's fun psychology in sports betting sometimes. You want to be someone other than the one who fades specific teams when they seem to dominate the other side. This occurs mainly in baseball for obvious reasons, and it's what we have today. I previously noted how the Braves have dominated this series this year in New York, but that's been a more significant continuation of what we've seen over the last few seasons. Atlanta has won nine of the previous 10 matchups against the Mets, including seven straight. That's a good reason why, according to our Covers matchup page, the Braves collected over 75% of the bets at publication.

Even with all this, I'm unsure I can justify it tonight. Kodai Senga will take the mound for the Mets, and he has outclassed Braves starter Yonny Chirinos by any definable metric. That said, I'm also not in any hurry to fade this Braves team, especially against the Mets, who look to have little interest in the rest of the season. Instead, I will avoid the moneyline and pivot to the total.

Chirinos has been downright abysmal since the Braves picked him up off waivers from Tampa Bay. In the most basic of breakdowns, he has given up at least three earned runs in four consecutive appearances, which includes his final outing as a member of the Rays. He was always trending towards more negative regression, and it's not reached its peak yet. As things stand, Chirinos sits with an ERA of 4.83 (8.56 with Atlanta) but an expected ERA above 6.00. That, paired with underlying metrics such as an expected batting average near the bottom of the league, tells me things are more likely to worsen before they improve for him. The Mets should be able to take advantage of this. 

This Mets offense hasn't been prolific, but they have enough professional hitters to cause trouble tonight. The bats of Pete Alonso, Franciso Alvarez, and Franciso Lindor all have barrel rates that are unsurprisingly set among baseball's elite. This is troubling for a pitcher who has suffered hard-hit and home run issues (Chirinos served up four long balls in his last start alone). 

On the other side, are we at this point where we expect the Braves to plate 4-5 runs once a night? Senga will take the mound, and I'm high on him after he's delivered some big-time whiff rates and strikeouts. However, he can't do much to hold this Braves lineup that continues to top the league in barrel rate, exit velocity, and hard-hit rate down. Additionally, the Braves mash the fastball as a group and Senga leans on his four-seamer more than any other pitch.

Expect runs tonight. My projection was 10. Whether it's each team doing its share to get things Over or one team dominating the game like we've seen much of this series, we feel pretty good about double-digit runs this evening. 

My best bet: Over 9.5 (-115 at FanDuel)

Braves vs Mets same-game parlay

Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 1.5 total bases (+100)

Pete Alonso Over 1.5 total bases (+125)

Over 9.5 (-115)

We're talking the total with an extra half run to lead off things in our same-game parlay this evening before pairing it with two of the best hitters riding hot streaks. 

The first player is Mets 1B Alonso and his Over 1.5 total bases prop. There are few better hitters to target when facing a pitcher with barrel and hard-hit rate issues. For another season, Alonso leads the Mets in barrel rate and is near baseball's best in that metric. So, it's a natural strength vs. Chirinos' chief weakness. We'll happily take the Polar Bear to do something he's done in six of the last 10 games.

Rounding things out is the ever-reliable Ronald Acuna Jr. and the Over on 1.5 total bases. I mentioned it earlier, but the Braves are far and away the best team in baseball against the fastball. They should see it a decent amount tonight, as Senga throws it just over 40% of the time. The best fastball hitter on the Braves? You guessed it, Acuna. He has slugged over .500 against it this season and batted over .300 against it this season, making him the only Brave to eclipse both numbers in tonight's lineup. 

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Braves vs Mets moneyline and Over/Under analysis

It's hard not to side with the Braves here, given their historical dominance against the Mets, but there's not enough value at the price of -135 to -130. My projections made this one much closer to a coin-flip game. With that in mind, the value is certainly on the side of the Mets, but I'm staying away altogether. 

"Give their pitchers a lot of credit, but it's going to make it hard to be competitive in those games against that quality of team unless we figure out a way to score some runs," Mets manager Buck Showalter said.

That sums things up for the Mets over the last week. They are second-to-last in the league in BABIP over the previous few weeks and last in the league in runs scored per game over the last three. Contrast that to playing the best baseball offense over most of the season, and things get simple. While I expect the Mets to have some success in the run-scoring department, it may not be enough.

As mentioned above, I'm on the Over for tonight's best bet. 

One pitcher on the mound has been quite bad this season and is likely to get worse before he gets better. And on the other side, the pitcher is less consequential because he's facing an offense running on all cylinders. It also doesn't hurt that we'll be in for another warm evening at Citi Field, which should be an excellent little help for ball carry. That's a good thing when we have two teams with big bats in the lineup. 

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Trend to know

The Braves are 9-1 in their last ten games against the Mets. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Mets

Braves vs Mets game info

Starting pitchers

Yonny Chirinos (5-4, 4.83 ERA): Chirinos gets by because he can get a decent amount of ground balls. However, most of the contact he allows is very hard. He has one of the worst expected batting averages in baseball to go along with that is a barrel rate in the Bottom 20% of baseball and a hard hit rate that's slightly worse than that. He comes into this one off a rocky start against the Pirates, where he allowed six earned runs in five innings.

Kodai Senga (8-6, 3.24 ERA): It's been an excellent first season for Senga. He's posted some elite strikeout numbers, including a K-rate in the Top 20% of baseball and a whiff rate that's slightly better. In a season full of underperforming players, Mets fans have been pleased with what they've seen from Senga. He comes into this matchup off a solid performance against the Cubs, allowing two earned runs over six innings.