2024 MLB player props: The best bets for the upcoming season

The 2024 MLB season is right around the corner, which could be a shock to some people, considering their favorite free agent probably hasn't signed with a team yet. Maybe due in part to the lackluster offseason, the 2024 regular season might be one of the more predictable ones in recent memory.

We all sort of know who is going to be good, who is going to be bad, and who is going to be mediocre. There are a few teams that could surprise fans like the Arizona Diamondbacks did a season ago. There are even a few that could disappoint after stellar 2023 campaigns (looking at you Diamondbacks). That said, the World Series contenders have mostly been determined already.

This is incredible news for anyone looking to place a wager on the upcoming season. While team records may be easier to predict, there are some player props that are worth considering as well. Whether a player is being undervalued because of recent trends, or someone is being overvalued on name brand, there is a myriad of props that can make you money this season.

Here are our picks for the four best player props to bet on heading into 2024. Lines via DraftKings.

Aaron Nola OVER 195.5 strikeouts (-110)

Make this make sense. You're telling me that Aaron Nola, who has missed minimal time to injury over the last six years and hasn't pitched less than 180 innings in a full season since 2017, has his strikeout line set at 195.5?

That would be a solid line if Nola hadn't proven himself a great strikeout pitcher, but Nola absolutely has. He has recorded at least nine strikeouts per nine in each of the last eight seasons. Sure, Nola endured a sizable drop in that department between 2022 and 2023, falling to just 9.4 K/9 from 10.3 the prior season, but Nola still recorded 202 strikeouts. At that rate, Nola would need to pitch only 187.2 innings in order to secure 196 strikeouts, which he has accrued in four of the last five full seasons. And that's assuming he doesn't recover some of his strikeout stuff and return to 10+ strikeouts per nine innings like he had been from 2019 and 2022.

Max Muncy UNDER 26.5 home runs (-110)

There's no denying that Muncy has the power to hit 30+ home runs every year. He hit 36 just last year. The issue is that Muncy likely won't play as much this year as he did a season ago.

Muncy was not good against lefties last year. He was downright atrocious in fact. He slashed .155/.263/.378 against southpaws a year ago, good for a 72 OPS+. Muncy could enter a platoon with Miguel Rojas at third base this season. Rojas isn't great with the bat, but against lefties in 2023, he still recorded a .737 OPS and 100 OPS+, making him a league average hitter against southpaws. While Rojas has not played more than five innings at third base in a season since 2018, Rojas has been a solid defender at the position in the past. Muncy recorded -3 Defensive Runs Saved, per Baseball-Reference a year ago. Rojas could certainly eat into Muncy's time at the position throughout the year.

Shota Imanaga OVER 150.5 strikeouts (-110)

It's hard to project such high numbers for someone who has never pitched in MLB before, but there's reason to feel good about Imanaga's chances at success. For one, Imanaga doesn't get hurt. Outside of COVID-shortened 2020, Imanaga has pitched at least 140 innings every season of his career in NPB. Considering the NPB league plays only 143 games, Imanaga could pitch even more innings in MLB.

Now that we know durability won't be the issue, the next logical step is to look at whether or not he has the stuff to consistently strike out MLB hitters. Short answer...almost definitely. As a member of Team Japan in the World Baseball Classic, Imanaga led the team in Stuff+. Yes, ahead of guys like Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

Furthermore, pitchers who transition to MLB from NPB tend to increase their strikeout numbers. Ohtani's last season with NPB, he recorded 10.6 strikeouts per nine. In his first season with the Angels, he recorded 11 K/9. Kodai Senga went from 9.7 in NPB in 2022 to 10.9 in 2023. Yu Darvish did not increase his strikeouts his first year, dropping to 10.4 K/9 in 2012 from 10.7 in Japan. That's almost the same mark though, and during Darvish's sophomore year in MLB, he recorded 11.9 K/9.

Jorge Soler UNDER 28.5 home runs (-110)

Pop quiz! How many right-handed hitters have hit 29 or more home runs for the Giants since Oracle Park opened in 2000?

The answer? Two. Rich Aurilia accomplished that feat in 2001, while Jeff Kent did so in both 2000 and 2002. Outside of them though, the most home runs by a Giants' right-handed hitter was 27 by Hunter Pence in 2013.

Jorge Soler is a powerful dude, but he could take a hit playing at Oracle. While Oracle would have only cost Soler four of his 36 home runs from a year ago, there is still some injury concern surrounding Soler as well. He's about to turn 32 and missed half of the 2022 season with back and pelvis injuries. Even when Soler played a full season in 2021, he only recorded 27 home runs. There are just too many question marks to feel comfortable betting on Soler to reach 30 bombs. The Giants don't have a history of supporting powerful righties, and asking Soler to record the fourth-most home runs by a righty in Oracle Park history is just too much.

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