MLB picks today: Best player prop bets for Monday, August 21

Monday means a bit lighter slate around MLB, as several teams travel after this weekend’s series. But if you’re looking for profitable player props today, fear not: With 10 games on tap and some big names in play, there are plenty of options to choose from. We’re here to help with three of our favorite lines, with odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

MLB player prop bets: Monday, August 21

Aaron Nola, over 6.5 strikeouts (+100)

Nola has been struggling a bit of late, with 15 runs allowed in 20 innings over his last four starts. But despite that, his strikeout rate has remained healthy: The Phillies ace has fanned at least six batters in each of his eight starts since the beginning of July, clearing this number in four of those. Nola also gets an ideal matchup on Monday night, as Philly welcomes a San Francisco Giants crew that has the eighth-highest K rate against righties since August 1 — including 36 Ks in three games over the weekend against the Atlanta Braves. Nola has plenty of experience against key Giants bats Michael Conforto, JD Davis and Wilmer Flores from their days with the New York Mets, tallying a strikeout rate over 40% against each of them. if he goes at least five innings tonight, he should have no problem hitting the over here.

James Paxton, under 5.5 strikeouts (-125)

Paxton has stayed afloat of late, but he’s been far less impressive than he was during his first two months in Boston. Since the start of July, the lefty has fallen short of this strikeout total in five of his seven starts, with a steady drop in his fastball velocity and swinging strike rate — his bread and butter, as he throws the pitch some 56% of the time. Now he has to deal with the righty-heavy Houston Astros, who have the league’s second-highest team OPS against lefties and a strikeout rate vs. southpaws that ranks just 18th. Even if Paxton goes deep enough into this game to give himself a shot at six or more Ks, it’s unlikely that Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and Co. whiff enough to push him over.

Manny Machado and Ha-Seong Kim, over 1.5 total bases (+250)

The San Diego Padres will be facing an old friend on Monday night, as the Marlins send lefty and former Padre Ryan Weathers to the mound. Weathers flamed out of San Diego’s rotation after posting a 6.25 ERA over his first 12 appearances (10 starts) this season, and things didn’t go much better in his Miami debut, as he let up six runs on six hits and four walks in just 3.2 innings of work against the Rangers earlier this month. San Diego figures to have the book on their former teammate, and their righty-heavy lineup should feast in this spot. Machado (.968 OPS vs. lefties) and Kim (.957) have both thrived with the platoon advantage all year, and they’re both a very good bet for at least one extra-base hit tonight.