2024 Super Bowl props: Bets, SGP, AI predictions, sim's NFL picks for Chiefs vs. 49ers include Travis Kelce

Already with two Super Bowl MVP awards on his mantle, Patrick Mahomes will be a favorite to land a third when the Kansas City Chiefs face the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl 58 on Sunday. However, you shouldn't assume gaudy stats from Mahomes, which is something to keep note of for Super Bowl prop bets. The latest Chiefs vs. 49ers props have his passing yardage bar at 262.5, and Mahomes has gone under that in each of his last four postseason games. Additionally, San Francisco has held its opponent to 260 passing yards or fewer in its last five postseason contests.

Mahomes won Super Bowl MVP last season despite just 182 passing yards and has averaged 246 across his three appearances in The Big Game. How much stock should you put into these stats and figures when it comes to making Super Bowl prop picks? Before betting any NFL props for 49ers vs. Chiefs or entering selections on sites like PrizePicks or DraftKings Pick 6, you need to see the NFL prop predictions powered by SportsLine AI.

Built using cutting-edge artificial intelligence and machine learning techniques by SportsLine's Data Science team, AI Predictions and AI Ratings are generated for each player prop. The AI predictions are determined by statistically learning from each player's historical data and then quantitatively evaluating the strength of the opponent's defense by assigning a numeric value out of 100 called a matchup score. 

Once a prediction is formulated, the AI rating is generated using the prediction, the matchup score, and the odds of the market. For example, you could see a 5-star rating on an over bet if a player is facing a poor defense, their prediction differs from the line and there are favorable odds.

In addition, SportsLine AI is the first fully automated predictive model at SportsLine. It continuously refreshes on the most recent available data and can help you spot the biggest discrepancies in the lines. So far this season, SportsLine's AI PickBot has hit a whopping 1,674 4.5- and 5-star prop picks. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

For Super Bowl 58, the AI PickBot has evaluated the NFL player prop odds and provided NFL prop picks for every available prop market. You can only see the AI player prop predictions for the 2024 Super Bowl here.

Top NFL player prop bets the 2024 Super Bowl

After analyzing Super Bowl 58 and examining the many NFL player props, the AI PickBot says Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce goes over 72.5 receiving yards. Kelce has had 71-plus receiving yards in 12 straight playoff games, the longest streak in NFL history. He's also averaged 85 receiving yards in his three career games versus San Francisco in which Mahomes was starting under center.

The Niners defended the tight end position well to start the year, but they tailed off towards the end. Over their last six games, including the postseason, the 49ers allowed 79.2 receiving yards to opposing tight ends, despite facing just one Pro Bowler in Sam LaPorta. The Lions rookie had 97 yards in the NFC Championship Game versus San Francisco, and Kelce plays an even bigger role in his team's offense than LaPorta does in Detroit's. SportsLine AI sees value in the over for receiving yards for Kelce, as it has him finishing with 91.5 yards on average. .  

How to make NFL player prop bets for Chiefs vs. 49ers

In addition, the AI PickBot says another star sails past his total and has five other NFL props rated four stars or better. You need to see the AI PickBot's analysis before making any NFL prop bets for 49ers vs. Chiefs.