2024 Washington Nationals Predictions with World Series Odds and Season Win Total Picks
The positive take away for the Washington Nationals last season is they were not the worst team in the National League, but they still finished last in the NL East and 20 games below .500. Their 71-91 record is actually five games better than their expected record, which is thanks to their 28-21 record in one-run contests and 6-2 record in extra inning games.
Shortstop CJ Abrams led the offense with a 3.4 WAR thanks to 47 stolen bases and 18 homeruns. He also finished with the second most amount of hits on the team and tallied 64 RBIs on the season. Lane Thomas finished right on Abrams heels with a 3.3 WAR. Thomas was the only Washington Nationals player to hit over 20 homeruns, as he clubbed 28 bombs and notched 20 stolen bases. His 86 RBIs was the second most on the team, and he was tied for the team lead in hits. Joey Meneses was the team leader in RBIs with 89, while Keibert Ruiz slugged 18 homeruns and 67 RBIs. The offense wasn’t great, as they ranked 21st in runs, 29th in homeruns, and 21st in OPS.
As for the pitching, Patrick Corbin led the team with 180 innings but struggled over the course of the season with a 5.20 ERA and a 10-15 record. Josiah Gray had the best ERA in the rotation, posting a 3.91 average over 159 innings of work. Trevor Williams, MacKenzie Gore, and Jake Irvin all recorded more than 120 innings, but all recorded ERAs of 4.42 or more. Kyle Finnegan was a force out of the bullpen, as the closer recorded 28 saves across 69.1 innings, while Hunter Harvey posted a 2.82 ERA with 10 saves and 19 holds in 60.2 innings. As a team, the Nationals ranked 27th in ERA and 28th in WHIP.
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Washington Nationals Key Additions/Losses
It was a quiet offseason for a team trying to let their prospects develop as they continue to plan for the future. Carl Edwards Jr, Dominic Smith, Cory Abbott, and Andres Machado all became free agents. They did take some fliers to stock up on some trade bait for later in the season. They added outfielders Nick Senzel and Joey Gallo while also signing reliver Dylan Floro. The Nationals then would add outfielders Eddie Rosario and Jesse Winker and pitchers Matt Barnes, Derek Law, Zach Davies, Jacob Barnes, and Luis Perdomo to minor league deals.
Washington Nationals Prospect Outlook
While Washington is at no loss for prospects, especially after the Juan Soto trade, most of their top prospects haven’t seen action higher than AA, with the exception of pitcher Cade Cavalli, who ranks as the team’s 4th overall prospect. Jackson Rutledge (13th), DJ Herz (16th), Cole Henry (18th), Mitchell Parker (26th), and Zach Brzykcy (29th) are all likely to get their shot at the big-league level this season.
Aside from the pitchers, the big-league roster is fairly young, and the last thing Washington wants to do is rush their development. Catchers Israel Pineda (21st) and Drew Millas (22nd) are both big league ready backstops, while infielder Nasim Nunez (23rd) and outfielder Jacob Young (30th) project to land bench roles.
Washington Nationals X-Factors
The Front Office- The Nationals will finish in the basement of the NL East and won’t be close to wild card contention. It is up to the Front Office to get creative and execute a plan that has them competitive in the near future. While there are a lot of pitching prospects expected to have an impact this season, this is one of the worst pitching staffs in the MLB who have no shot at slowing down the Braves or Phillies lineups, much less what lingers outside the division. Gallo, Senzel, and Floro may be nice trade pieces. However, how far down the roster will the front office go to load up on future capital?
CJ Abrams/Keibert Ruiz- These two are an inexpensive, yet dynamic duo for the Nationals. Ruiz (25) and Abrams (23) combined for a 4.7 WAR last season, with both players recording 18 homeruns and over 60 RBIs. These two may be the cornerstone pieces that Washington is planning around. Their health and continued growth at the big-league level is paramount for the future.
Washington Nationals Expectations
There is little excitement surrounding this club. They are far from fielding a competitive roster. I expect most of the offseason additions to be dealt at the Trade Deadline, along with some other names like Joey Meneses, Patrick Corbin, or Victor Robles. Top prospect Dylan Crews could be an exciting player to watch if he gets the call at some point this season.
Washington Nationals Notable Odds:
World Series Champions- +25000
Pennant Winners- +12000
Division Winners- +12000
NL Cy Young- Josiah Gray- +6000
NL Rookie of the Year- Dylan Crews- +3000
NL Manager of the Year- Dave Martinez- +6000
Washington Nationals Prediction
Washington’s win total projects to be 66.5. I like the over because they did win 71 games last season and didn’t get any worse. Washington may exceed their competitive standards this season as they did add a lot of pop to the lineup, and doing so would make the wins add up in the first half. They have a few more years ahead of them before they compete for the playoffs, and I see them sitting around 70 wins this season.
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