Predicting MLB's 5 Worst Lineups for 2024 Season

If it's a list of the best lineups heading into the 2024 MLB season you want, well, that's easy. In some order, they're in Atlanta, Houston, Los Angeles, the Bronx and Arlington.

The five worst lineups, on the other hand, are fodder for a proper conversation.

First, let's clarify that "lineup" is not the same as "offense." One is a generally set collection of regulars and platoon guys, while the other hints at a broader collection of hitters and is also generally associated with baseball's main currency: runs. And rightfully so, but a team's run output is likewise determined by the stadiums and competition it encounters.

So if we're going to rank MLB's worst lineups heading into 2024, it's best to strip things down to what really matters:

• What is each team's starting nine?
• How good are they?

To these ends, I leaned on RosterResource's roster projections and otherwise consulted ZiPS, Steamer and Depth Charts for each player's wins above replacement outlook. The resulting aggregation can be found here.

Yet taking those numbers' word for it would have been too simple. Though they were instructive in making the picks for the bottom five, they don't account for top prospects who could come to the rescue at some point. That should matter.

In any case, let's first touch on some honorable mentions and then count 'em down.

Cleveland Guardians

The lineup the Guardians have isn't too different from the one they had last year, when they ranked 18th in rWAR and all the way down at 27th in scoring.

Yet let's give it up for José Ramírez, the most underappreciated superstar in MLB. There's also more to be gained from Andrés Giménez and the Naylor brothers, Josh and Bo, who were quietly Cleveland's two best hitters in the second half of 2023.

Detroit Tigers

The Tigers offense kept sputtering along last season, ultimately ranking in the bottom five of MLB in pretty much every major category.

There's nonetheless ample room for hope here, starting with how Spencer Torkelson, Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter are a good-looking young trio. And for his part, top prospect Colt Keith may make it a good-looking good foursome.

Kansas City Royals

I'm not saying the Royals had a good lineup last year, but something clearly had to go right for them to rack up more runs and rWAR than the New York Yankees.

It obviously helps to have Bobby Witt Jr., who's up there with Julio Rodríguez among the most dynamic offensive players in the American League. Yet don't sleep on MJ Melendez, who had a good second half in 2023, and Vinnie Pasquantino, who hits when he's healthy.

Pittsburgh Pirates

This lineup isn't going to scare anyone, but it's also one of those that'll catch your eye if you bother to glance at it.

Pittsburgh's Bryan Reynolds-Oneil Cruz-Jack Suwinski trio is a good one, and Ke'Bryan Hayes proved in the latter half of 2023 that he's more than just an ace defender. He hit 10 of his 15 home runs after the All-Star break, with an .874 OPS.

Projected Lineup

1. LF Andrew Benintendi (L)
2. 3B Yoán Moncada (S)
3. CF Luis Robert Jr. (R)
4. DH Eloy Jiménez (R)
5. 1B Andrew Vaughn (R)
6. RF Dominic Fletcher (L)
7. SS Paul DeJong (R)
8. 2B Nicky Lopez (L)
9. C Martín Maldonado (R)

Average 2024 WAR: 12.5

Here's how bad it was for the White Sox last season: They were second-to-last in MLB in runs and OPS, and dead-last in rWAR.

In the abstract, it's a good thing that the lineup that bore responsibility for all that now has four new faces. But out of those, only Fletcher really offers anything in the way of intrigue after posting a .791 OPS in Arizona last year. DeJong was last an effective hitter in 2018, while that label has never hung on Lopez or Maldonado.

It's thus going to be up to the incumbents to point Chicago's lineup in a better direction this year, and that's where there's only so much room for optimism.

Especially deserving of pessimism are Vaughn, who's yet to break out in three seasons, and Benintendi, whose only real specialty is hitting singles.

On the plus side, Robert established himself as a proper superstar in mashing 38 home runs and stealing 20 bases last season. And even if both have been infuriatingly unreliable in recent seasons, Moncada and Jiménez are too young and talented to be given up on.

There would otherwise seem to be decent odds of shortstop prospect Colson Montgomery debuting this season. Last year was a star turn for him in the minors, where he racked up a .456 on-base percentage on a journey that ended with Double-A Birmingham.

Projected Lineup

1. 2B Luis Arraez (L)
2. SS Tim Anderson (R)
3. 1B Josh Bell (S)
4. 3B Jake Burger (R)
5. CF Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)
6. LF Bryan De La Cruz (R)
7. RF Jesús Sánchez (L)
8. DH Avisaíl García (R)
9. C Nick Fortes (R)

Average 2024 WAR: 13.3

There's at least one good reason to tune in when the Marlins lineup is at work this season, and it's because they have the best pure hitter in the sport.

That's Arraez, of course. He's hit under .300 once in five seasons, and even that year saw him come close in finishing with a .296 average. He probably won't make another run at .400 this year...and yet, he might. He's just that kind of good.

Even with Arraez, though, Miami was fifth from the bottom in scoring and eighth from the bottom in rWAR last season. And that was with 36 home runs from Soler, who's now a San Francisco Giant.

The plan seems to be to hope that full seasons of Bell and Burger make up for Soler's absence. Which is possible, at least. The two of them only played in 106 games with the Marlins down the stretch of 2023, yet still produced 20 homers.

Yet neither can rightfully be called reliable, as Bell is notoriously inconsistent and Burger is a low-.300s OBP guy. And even if you chalk up Anderson's awful 2023 to an early-season knee injury, you still have to go back to 2021 to find the last time he was a wire-to-wire offensive force.

It's Chisholm, the erstwhile All-Star and MLB The Show cover model, who represents the best hope to elevate this offense. But that also hinges on him staying healthy, something he notably hasn't done, as he has been limited to 197 games over the last two years.

Projected Lineup

1. SS CJ Abrams (L)
2. RF Lane Thomas (R)
3. LF Joey Gallo (L)
4. 1B Joey Meneses (R)
5. DJ Jesse Winker (L)
6. C Keibert Ruiz (S)
7. 3B Nick Senzel (R)
8. 2B Luis García Jr. (L)
9. CF Victor Robles (R)

Average 2024 WAR: 9.7

The Nationals were actually OK on the offensive side for the better part of 2023, but that's not worth reading into. Things naturally got more volatile after they traded Jeimer Candelario, and they were generally overly reliant on hitting with runners in scoring position.

The hope now is that the Candelario model—i.e., pick up a diminished asset and hope for the best—will work with Gallo, Winker and Senzel. But good luck with that.

Neither Gallo nor Winker has had anything to offer in the last two seasons, while Senzel is tacking toward being one of the worst No. 2 draft picks ever.

Elsewhere, Meneses hit exactly as many home runs (13) in 154 games last year as he did in his surprising 56-game breakthrough in 2022. Thomas' own breakthrough in 2023 didn't last, with his OPS taking a 140-point tumble from the first half to the second.

It's a good thing the Nats had Abrams and Ruiz after the break last year. That's when the former stole 33 of his 47 stolen bases, and when the latter hit .300 with nine homers.

Yet in placing the Nationals here despite that awful WAR projection, what I'm really doing is putting faith in Dylan Crews and James Wood. Both are among MLB's top 10 prospects, as ranked by B/R's Joel Reuter, and are on track to debut this year after making it to Double-A Harrisburg last season.

Projected Lineup

1. 1B Ryan Noda (L)
2. 2B Zack Gelof (R)
3. DH Brent Rooker (R)
4. RF Seth Brown (L)
5. C Shea Langeliers (R)
6. LF JJ Bleday (L)
7. CF Esteury Ruiz (R)
8. 3B Abraham Toro (S)
9. SS Nick Allen (R)

Average 2024 WAR: 12.0

The question here is how one can even feign optimism when talking about a team that finished last in MLB in runs and OPS and second-to-last in rWAR just a year ago.

Well, let's start with the Noda-Gelof-Rooker trio at the top of Oakland's lineup. It's a sneaky-good one, as all three made at least 300 plate appearances and racked up at least a 120 OPS+ last season. You may be surprised by how many teamsdidn't have such a trio last year.

Otherwise, a healthy Brown is capable of producing 20 to 25 home runs. Ditto for Langeliers, and then there's the main source of speed in this lineup. Ruiz led the AL with 67 stolen bases even though he only posted a .309 OBP in 2023.

So you see, there are good reasons the A's don't occupy the top spot on this list. Heck, one might even call their lineup underrated.

Of course, there should be no mistaking it for a good lineup. The biggest issue here is the plethora of easy outs, as even Brown, Langeliers and Ruiz were among the top offenders as the A's posted a .298 OBP last year.

There's otherwise little to no hope of elevation evident here. Oakland's best position-player prospect is Jacob Wilson, and he only made it as far as Single-A Lansing after going to the A's with the No. 6 pick in the 2023 draft. He's likely still a year away from the majors.

Projected Lineup

1. DH Charlie Blackmon (L)
2. 1B Kris Bryant (R)
3. LF Nolan Jones (L)
4. 2B Brendan Rodgers (R)
5. 3B Ryan McMahon (L)
6. C Elias Díaz (R)
7. RF Sean Bouchard (R)
8. SS Ezequiel Tovar (R)
9. CF Brenton Doyle (R)

Average 2024 WAR: 9.5

The Rockies are going to score runs. Don't you worry about that. Or, more accurately, let Coors Field worry about that.

Even with Coors, however, the last two seasons have seen the Rockies score runs at two of the three lowest rates in their history. They also finished last year with the second-lowest OPS in their history, barely beating out their mark from 2022 by .002 points.

Nothing against Jones, of course. He was awesome as a rookie in 2023, posting a .931 OPS and 20 long balls in 106 games. But apart from him, there are slim pickings as far as hopes for above-average offense in 2024.

Maybe Blackmon and Bryant if they revert to younger versions of themselves, and Bouchard if he can stay healthy. The latter does have a .991 OPS as a big leaguer, but that's in just 48 games.

For their parts, Rodgers, McMahon, Díaz, Tovar and Doyle are more defensive standouts than offensive stalwarts. And while top prospects Adael Amador, Yanquiel Fernandez and Jordan Beck are waiting in the wings, each needs more seasoning at Double-A Hartford.

For what it's worth, the defensive component of this lineup is so solid that the Rockies actually figure to be one of the most effective fielding teams this year. But it's more so the bats we're looking at here, and that's where there's just not a lot to see.