Nationals 2024 season preview: Projected lineup, rotation and whose development matters most to rebuild

The Nationals closed last decade with a World Series championship, a culmination of five playoff trips in an eight-year span. Things have completely fallen off the proverbial rails since with four last-place finishes. Last season's Nats were a big improvement, though, winning 71 games, which was 16 more than their 2022 output. They actually crept up within a shot of contention in late August. After a win on Aug. 26, the Nats were only seven games out of the last wild-card spot. 

Alas, the true talent level won out and the Nationals went 10-22 down the stretch. 

Still, overall, the 2023 ballclub was a far cry from the embarrassing 107-loss outfit in 2022. If they could continue the progress, there's a real shot at contention in 2024. The question is if they can keep moving in that direction. 

Win total projection, odds

• 2023 record: 71-91 (last place in NL East)
• 2024 SportsLine over/under win total: 66.5

Projected lineup

Infielder Carter Kieboom and utility man Ildemaro Vargas will also get plenty of playing time, at least to start the year. Lefty-swinging Jesse Winker is a non-roster invite to camp, but it's been a bit since he was productive.

Projected rotation

Veteran righty Zach Davies will figure in here somewhere. Also, 6-foot-8 right-hander Jackson Rutledge, a former first-round pick, made four starts in his MLB debut last season and will likely get another look. 

Projected bullpen

Righty Dylan Floro is dealing with a shoulder issue in spring training, but he'll be back and will figure prominently. 

Continued growth from young core

The Nationals saw good signs last season from what could emerge as the nucleus of the team for years to come. 

• Keibert Ruiz heads to his age-25 season. Last year, he topped 500 plate appearances at the MLB level for the first time. He hit .260 with 24 doubles and 18 homers. He could stand to up the on-base percentage (.308), but he has the makings of a quality offensive catcher. 
• CJ Abrams was a regular for the first time last year at age 22. He hit .245/.300/.412 (95 OPS+), but flashed a nice power-speed combo with 28 doubles, six triples, 18 home runs and 47 stolen bases. He also played great defense at short. There's something to work with here.
• Josiah Gray spent his second full season in a rotation and lowered his ERA from 5.02 to 3.91 (110 ERA+). Walks are still an issue, but he got his home run rate under control and struck out 143 in 159 innings. There's a good skill set in there. 
• MacKenzie Gore spent his first full season in a rotation, pitching to a 4.42 ERA across 136 1/3 innings. He walked too many and could stand to trim down on the home runs allowed. He also struck out 151 in 136 1/3 innings, flashing the kind of upside that one time made him a top-10 prospect. He's still only 25 years old. 

That's two position players and two starting pitchers. Teams can build around that foundation. Perhaps Luis García Jr., who is 24 this season, can join the fray. 

Let's also keep our eyes on Dylan Crews. The LSU superstar (and national champion) was the second overall pick in the draft last July. He's 22 and reached Double-A last season, so it feels like a decent shot we see him in the bigs this season. 

Crews isn't the only high-upside Nationals outfielder we could see break into the majors this season, either, as James Wood is also knocking on the door. For more on Crews and Wood, CBS Sports prospect guru R.J. Anderson has you covered.

Was the Thomas breakout real?

Let's say that Ruiz and Abrams make further positive strides this season while Crews and Wood debut and look the part almost immediately, such as the way Juan Soto did for the Nats when he was 19. That would be pretty exciting. 

And what if the Lane Thomas breakout season from 2023 carried over into a sensational encore? 

Thomas was a fifth-round pick out of high school who debuted with the Cardinals at age 23. In parts of three seasons with St. Louis, he got 142 plate appearances and hit .172/.289/.336 (71 OPS+) with 0.0 WAR. He showed some growth after the Nats grabbed him in 2021 and then, again, showed a little growth in 2022 with close to full-time action for the first time in his MLB career. 

In 156 games last season, Thomas hit .268/.315/.468 (114 OPS+) with 36 doubles, three triples, 28 homers, 86 RBI, 101 runs and 20 stolen bases. 

Is there more in there? Even if there's not and he keeps playing like last season, that's a quality everyday player. He's 28 years old and under team control through 2025. He might be open to an extension, too. He definitely isn't too old to play his way into a part of the Nationals' future core, even if it is as the elder statesman.  

What would make for a successful season?

If the Nats made another big leap forward, they'd be a playoff contender, but moving from 55 to 71 wins is exponentially easier than moving from 71 up into the 80s. Most projection sites have the Nationals as one of the worst teams in baseball and within shouting range of the worst playoff odds. 

That means, realistically, we aren't looking at something like making the postseason or even having a winning record making a successful season. They are still in the process of building toward a winner instead of actually being a potential winner. 

Success in 2024 looks like positive gains from the aforementioned young core, Thomas proving last season was no fluke and the young outfielder duo of Crews and Wood making highlight-reel magic in the majors. 

Ideally, the Nationals would then be in position to think about Wood and Crews being the stars of the team starting in 2025 with Ruiz, Abrams and Thomas as solid supporting cast types. Gore and Gray would look like sturdy, mid-rotation starters (if not more) and then the Nationals could go shopping in free agency for an ace with Corbin's money finally coming off the books. 

Finally, I do think there's merit to getting out of last place. I know that, ultimately, the season can be a success for the franchise as a whole without it showing up in the W-L columns, but snapping that last-place streak would be nice, too.