49ers vs Eagles Odds, Picks & Predictions

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27 January 2023

49ers vs Eagles Odds, Picks & Predictions

The San Francisco 49ers and the Philadelphia Eagles were the NFC's two best teams in the regular season, and now they'll duke it out for the right to represent their conference in Super Bowl LVII. Our NFL picks think the Eagles will fly away with this one.

A ticket to Arizona is up for grabs when the Philadelphia Eagles host the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship Game.

The NFL betting odds for Sunday’s title game paint a close contest between the two top seeds in the conference. Philadelphia is giving just less than a field goal at home to San Francisco after thumping the rival New York Giants in the Divisional Round. The 49ers fought off the Dallas Cowboys to inch closer to representing the NFC in Super Bowl LVII.

I break down the spread and total for the NFC Championship Game and give my best NFL picks and predictions for 49ers at Eagles on Sunday, January 29.

49ers vs Eagles best odds

49ers vs Eagles picks and predictions

It was the first bet I made on Sunday night when the odds for the NFC Championship hit the board. With the spread bouncing between Eagles -1.5 and -2.5, I passed on the point spread and went to the outrights, betting Philadelphia -130 on the moneyline.

Since then, the market consensus has taken this spread to -2.5, and the moneyline price on the Eagles sits between -140 and -150. Considering just how tight these two teams match up, a one-point finish is a very real possibility. Philadelphia -2.5 is asking you to lay as much as -118 right now, so I’ll pay a little extra to keep things simple and sweat less on Championship Sunday.

That’s not to say the Eagles can’t come out and win this thing by a field goal or more, especially when you consider a couple factors that I believe will have a huge say in how this NFC title game shakes down.

Philly is the No. 1 seed in the conference, which means hosting this gateway to the Super Bowl. The Eagles have been fantastic in front of the Philly faithful this season, boasting an average margin of +10.4 on home turf while ranking out particularly strong on defense inside the Linc.

Facing a fearsome crowd is something San Francisco hasn’t had to deal with much over the past three months. In a scheduling quirk, the 49ers played only three true road games in the final 11 regular season contests (with a neutral site squash of the Arizona Cardinals in Mexico City in Week 11). Two of those stints as visitors came in L.A. and Las Vegas, where San Fran fans overran the venue and made for a de facto home atmosphere.

In fact, true road tests were so few and far between for the 49ers, that we forget where this team struggled the most – on the road. The Niners were 10-2 ATS at home/neutral site, but just 3-4 ATS on the road, with three of their four losses coming away from Santa Clara.

That shock to the scheduling system is basically the difference in this game, considering the spread, and San Francisco will need to get acclimated to life in enemy territory quickly if it wants to avoid a slow start to the NFC Championship – something you just can’t do against the Eagles.

Philadelphia comes out firing, and is the best offense out of the blocks in the NFC. The Eagles sit second overall in EPA per play in first quarters and first halves behind only the Kansas City Chiefs. The Eagles pile on the points quickly at home, averaging a league-high 19.1 points in the opening 30 minutes as hosts – much like they did to New York, jumping out to a 28-0 halftime lead.

The 49ers defense has been a little softer in the first half in their two playoff appearances. They allowed the Seahawks to rally for 17 points in the second quarter of the Wild Card Round, and trailed Dallas 12-9 at the break with the Cowboys leaving points on the table due to a red zone interception on fourth down.

An early lead for Philly could spell doom for the 49ers in the second half. San Francisco’s pace would have to pick up, and that urgency is amplified on the road. It very much falls into the plans of the Eagles, who tee off against quarterbacks in passing positions with this nasty front four while limiting big plays on defense.

That would have San Francisco getting away from the run-heavy playbook and putting the pressure on Brock Purdy – a rookie passer making his first road playoff start and only his second “real” road start, considering the cushy crowds in L.A. and Vegas. Purdy was hot-and-cold vs the Cowboys, but felt the heat and barely avoided some crucial mistakes on a few near INTs in the Divisional Round.

In the end, the fate of these franchises lands in the hands of the quarterbacks. One is an unproven passer – protected by a system offense – playing in one of the fieriest environments in football. The other is an MVP candidate in Jalen Hurts, who can make even the stingiest defenses look silly by making plays with his arm or his legs.

I know where my money is.

My best bet: Eagles moneyline (-143 at BetRivers)

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49ers vs Eagles spread analysis

Following San Francisco’s win over Dallas in the Divisional Round on Sunday night, oddsmakers opened Philadelphia between -1.5 and -2.5 favorites for the NFC title game. The market consensus settled in at Eagles -2.5, where it has sat since early Monday morning.

According to mainstream operators, the majority of early action is on the home team, with books like DraftKings reporting 77% of ticket count and money wagered riding on Philadelphia. That has most books dealing an expensive -2.5 on the Eagles, with the increase in juice indicating a potential move to a field goal spread.

Some books dabbled with a 3-point spread early Tuesday and instantly took bets on the Niners +3. That stop lasted only 10 minutes before bookies went back to Eagles -2.5. Given that appetite for the underdog at +3, operators will likely stay at Philly -2.5 and flirt with -3 whenever liability on the home side gets scary.

That slim spread is essentially saying these two teams would around a “pick’em” spread on a neutral field, and that assumption is warranted. Both the Eagles and 49ers were darlings in the advanced metrics this season, with San Francisco and Philadelphia sitting No. 2 and No. 3, respectively, in overall DVOA at Football Outsiders, and ranking out neck-and-neck in EPA measurements.

Philadelphia does have a sizable edge at quarterback, especially as Hurts recovers from a late-season shoulder sprain that likely cost him a run at NFL MVP. Hurts looked solid under center in the Divisional Round, and gives Philly an offensive edge over 49ers rookie signal caller Purdy.

Purdy has played well above expectations as this year’s “Mr. Irrelevant” (last player selected in the draft). He hasn’t been asked to carry the team by any means, working within Kyle Shanahan’s short-hitting system, but has stepped up to make tough throws when called upon. He had an up-and-down day vs Dallas in the Divisional Round, and faces another dangerous defense in the NFC Championship Game.

San Francisco’s advantage is the relentless rushing game, which goes deep with plenty of potential ball carriers. The Niners have imposed their will on opponents with a methodical attack anchored in the ground game, allowing them to wear down foes and dominate possession to the tune of an average TOP of 31:57 – second highest in the NFL.

Philadelphia’s defense does well to protect against the big play, but is susceptible to the ground-and-pound approach. The Eagles – who sit 21st in Run Defense DVOA – allowed the 10th highest EPA per handoff and 4.7 yards per carry on the year. However, Philly has been able to hide this soft spot due to the quick starts from their offense forcing many foes to play from behind and abandon their rushing game. They did just that vs the Giants last Saturday.

San Francisco enters Championship Sunday at 13-6 ATS on the year, but is just 3-4 ATS in true road games. Philadelphia owns a 9-9 ATS mark, including a 7-3 ATS count inside Lincoln Financial Field.

49ers vs Eagles Over/Under analysis

This Over/Under opened at 46 points on Sunday evening, and early money showed up on the Under, sliding this total to 45.5 points.

That number stayed put until midweek, but money came in on the Over and pushed this total past the opener of 46 points to as high as 46.5. According to operators, ticket count is still high on the Under, but the handle has balanced more with bigger bets coming in on the Over in recent days.

The shorter Over/Under is expected considering the defensive prowess of these two teams and the makeup of their offenses.

Philadelphia’s stop unit uses deep zone coverage in the secondary to protect against big plays, and relies on a strong defensive line to get pressure without depending on the blitz. The Eagles own the second highest pressure rate per dropback, which has led to an NFL-best 70 sacks, while boasting a lower blitz rate of 22%.

The 49ers aren’t far off in their approach, with their front seven among the best in the league. San Francisco can get to the quarterback with just the defensive line and causes plenty of chaos, which has led to 30 takeaways on the year (four in the playoffs so far).

The Niners have shown a weakness to deep strikes when rival passers have time to let those plays develop, as we saw against Seattle and Dallas in the postseason. Hurts’ shoulder looked strong last weekend, and he has two top targets in A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith who can hit those home runs downfield.

Offensively, this is very much a contrast in pace. San Francisco runs the slowest offense in the land in terms of seconds per play. The 49ers average less than 62 offensive plays per game, which is 21st in the league, despite the Niners’ ranking second in TOP.

The Eagles roll out a relentless attack that gets to the line quick, calling a play every 27.11 seconds, which is the seventh-fastest tempo. Philadelphia averages 66.3 plays per game – fifth most – and is No. 3 in EPA per play with a Top 3 success rate of 47.9%.

As for Over/Under results, the 49ers are 10-9 O/U with a 3-4 O/U count on the road. Philly is 10-8 O/U on the year with a 6-4 O/U mark as hosts. These teams did meet in September of last season, with San Francisco winning 17-11, and that final score playing well below the closing total of 49 points.

49ers vs Eagles same-game parlay

Eagles moneyline

Jalen Hurts Anytime Touchdown

Jalen Hurts Rushing Attempts Over 9.5

We’re taking the home team outright against a rookie quarterback and a visitor that hasn’t been tested in a true road game in a long, long time. Hurts will see his number called on to rush more, and will likely need to tuck and run on some pass plays against a strong 49ers’ pass rush. Hurts will also find paydirt as the ultimate goal-line weapon.

SGP odds: +350 at bet365