49ers vs. Eagles prediction, pick: Expect a low-scoring NFC championship game in Philadelphia
Two explosive, top-five offenses led by young quarterbacks who are surrounded by a wealth of playmakers.
Two physical, opportunistic defenses that rank 1-2 in the NFL.
Two head coaches in their early 40s who already are among the league’s most respected sideline leaders.
Throw in near-identical records, and Sunday’s 49ers vs. Eagles NFC Championship Game has all the makings of a back-and-forth, down-to-the-wire, 60-minute war.
Even though San Francisco is riding an NFL-best 12-game winning streak, the NFC Championship Game betting market has been leaning Philadelphia’s direction all week.
We’re leaning the same way — just not with enough force to recommend laying points in what is setting up to be a last-team-with-the-ball-wins situation.
So our 49ers vs. Eagles prediction zeroes in on the total. In short, we expect the NFL’s two best defenses to dominate at Lincoln Financial Field.
Odds updated as of 1 p.m. ET on Jan. 27.
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49ers vs. Eagles Prediction: Pick
49ers vs. Eagles Prediction: Analysis
Let’s be clear: Both these offenses are more than capable of finding the end zone. We’ve seen it all season.
San Francisco has scored at least 24 points in 11 of 19 games (and won all 11). Philadelphia has scored at least 24 points in 13 of 18 games (and won 12).
Heck, just look at the names on the rosters: Jalen Hurts, Miles Sanders, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert on the Eagles’ side; Christian McCaffrey, Elijah Mitchell, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk and even upstart rookie Brock Purdy on the 49ers’ side.
Indeed, there’s a good reason why Philadelphia and San Francisco ranked third and sixth, respectively, in scoring offense, and third and fifth, respectively, in total offense.
But it’s important to put those rankings in context with each team’s schedule.
Obviously, with this being the first head-to-head meeting of the season, neither offense has faced a top-two defense (because San Francisco and Philly rank 1-2 in total defense).
In fact, only four of the Niners’ 19 games came against top 10 defenses in terms of yards allowed: Washington (3rd), New Orleans (5th), Denver (7th) and Tampa Bay (10th).
And when looking at points allowed, San Francisco faced just four teams that ranked in the top half of the league: Dallas (tied-5th), Washington (tied-7th), New Orleans (9th) and Tampa Bay (tied-13th).
Meanwhile, Philadelphia’s offense went up against two teams that ranked in the top 11 in total defense: Washington (twice) and New Orleans.
And it played six games against opponents that finished in the top half of the league in points allowed: Dallas twice, Washington twice, New Orleans and Tennessee (tied-13th).
The point: Neither offense faced a steady gauntlet of top-tier defenses this season. And in the case of San Francisco, it only faced one strong defense on the road all season: Way back in Week 3, the Niners went to Denver and lost 11-10.
On Sunday at The Linc? It’s going to be a totally different ballgame for Hurts, Purdy and all those playmakers. Because the 49ers’ and Eagles’ stop units are every bit as good as the numbers suggest.
Here are some highlights:
Only three teams have scored more than 20 points against San Francisco this season — the Falcons (28 in Week 6), Chiefs (44 in Week 7) and Raiders (34 in Week 17).
Since a 38-35 win at Detroit in Week 1, only three opponents have topped 22 points against Philadelphia — Washington (32 in Week 10), Green Bay (33 in Week 12) and Dallas (40 in Week 16).
The 49ers led the league in scoring defense (16.3 points per game) and total defense (300.6 yards per game), and were second in rushing defense (77.7 per game). They also tied for the league lead with 20 interceptions and were tied for third with 30 total takeaways.
The Eagles gave up 5 fewer passing yards per game (179.8) than any team in the league. They also led the NFL with 70 sacks (15 more than any other squad), and tied for fourth in both interceptions (17) and total takeaways (27).
Now, you know that both Kyle Shanahan and Nick Sirianni are aware of all these facts. And with a berth in Super Bowl LVII on the line, you have to think they will game plan accordingly.
That means low-risk playcalling, the kind designed to keep the chains moving, keep possession of the football and shorten the game. That, in turn, also keeps your stout defense fresh.
Honestly, the only way we see these teams scoring in the mid-20s is if multiple turnovers create short-field situations.
Could that happen? Of course. But it’s good to know that San Francisco had the third-fewest giveaways this season and Philadelphia was tied for fifth fewest. And in three total playoff games, the teams have a combined two turnovers (compared with five takeaways).
In the end, we see this long-awaited, highly-anticipated NFC Championship Game showdown trending more toward a 17-14 snoozefest than a 31-28 thriller.
Play the game Under at BetMGM. And if you’re feeling frisky, consider a first-half Under wager, too, as we expect both offenses to be conservative out of the gates.
Point spread: 49ers (+2.5, -105) @ Eagles (-2.5, -115)
Moneyline: 49ers (+125) @ Eagles (-150)
Total: 46.5 points
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