68 Ventures Bowl Betting Odds, Spreads & Picks 2023

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21 December 2023

68 Ventures Bowl Betting Odds, Spreads & Picks 2023

Both Eastern Michigan and South Alabama will be facing heavy opt-outs on offense heading into the 68 Ventures Bowl — see which side our college football picks think can make the most of the leftovers.

The 68 Ventures Bowl takes over the bowl game odds focus Saturday at 7:00 p.m. when the South Alabama Jaguars of the Sun Belt Conference meet the Eastern Michigan Eagles of the Mid-American Conference (MAC).

As usual, the transfer portal and opt-outs are looming large, and the college football odds have South Alabama favored by 17 points. Still, Eastern has a stout defense and may have other ideas for the Jaguars on Saturday.

Join me as I break it down and give my best free college football picks for the 68 Ventures Bowl between South Alabama and Eastern Michigan on Saturday, December 23.

South Alabama vs Eastern Michigan best odds

South Alabama vs Eastern Michigan picks and predictions

The transfer portal and opt-outs have changed the dynamic of both teams. Both sides of the ball have been affected, complicating this handicap.

Some opt-outs could decide to suit up after all. We have a good idea of who will play, but we won’t worry about this and go with what we know.

South Alabama starting quarterback Carter Bradley, running back La’Damian Webb, and wideout Caullin Lacy may not suit up. Lacy is the most likely of the three to dress, but Webb wasn’t mentioned at all on the Jaguars game notes depth chart. Bradley is listed as the starter in the South Alabama game notes, but he’s been dealing with a knee injury.

Eastern Michigan boasts one of the best defenses nationally, but the starting group could also be missing some key personnel for Saturday’s game. Defensive lineman Alex Merritt has already been ruled out, while Eastern’s second-leading tackler Chris Kline was curiously omitted from the Eagles game notes depth chart.

Playing at home gives the Jaguars an edge, but are they really 17 points better than the Eagles?

The numbers suggest otherwise. South Alabama was 1-4-0 ATS over its last five with its best players on the field. Now we’re asking the Jags to cover 17 with a backup quarterback and reserve running backs, along with their top wideout likely out for this game.

The Eagles offense doesn’t score much anyway, so missing parts isn’t likely as big a deal to EMU as it is to the Jags. EMU is one of eight FBS teams with at least 10 games and less than 300 yards of offense, but the Eagles still managed to score 21+ in each of their last four, and they have a decent ground game that can make inroads against a Jags defense allowing 116 rushing yards per game.

Finally, Eastern will cover against South Alabama with its stout defense leading the way. The Jags had one less turnover than takeaway, and we should expect an EMU defense reliant on turnovers to gain one or two against less experienced ball carriers and signal callers. The Eastern defense is 21st nationally in red zone conversion rate, which should give EMU enough stops for head coach Chris Creighton to improve to 5-1-0 ATS in bowl games as coach of the Eagles.

My best bet: Eastern Michigan +17 (-110 at DraftKings)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

South Alabama vs Eastern Michigan same-game parlay

Eastern Michigan +17

South Alabama team total Under 30.5

Eastern Michigan team total Over 18.5

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This entire card revolves around the EMU defense and its ability to slow down the Jaguars' high-scoring offense on its home field. That will be a daunting task, but Eastern can pull this off. It forces turnovers, and the Jags had 20 of them at full strength. The Eagles defense will look for strips, and the Jaguars could accommodate them.

If Eastern can pull that off, it can hold South Alabama to Under 30 points. The Jaguars have been held to 30 points or fewer in seven of their 12 contests, and the Eagles' defense allows just 24.1 points per game.

Finally, Eastern has scored 18+ in nine of their 12 games this season. The Jags boast a stout defense of their own but have surrendered 18 or more in six of their 12 games, and with a little luck, Eastern can clear the DraftKings number and cash this ticket.

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South Alabama vs Eastern Michigan spread and Over/Under analysis

When this game opened, South Alabama was a double-digit home favorite. The oddsmakers hung an opener between 14 and 16 points, but bettors drove the number down to -15.5 before the number spiked earlier this week to -17 (-110) straight across U.S. sportsbooks.

I suppose the Jaguars having a home-field advantage may have something to do with the spike, but I believe the first line move to -15.5 might be the real number. South Alabama was 2-4-0 ATS as the home favorite, meeting an EMU program with a 4-2-0 ATS mark as the away side, along with Creighton being 4-1-0 ATS as head coach of EMU in bowl games, led me to play EMU +17 (-110).

The total opened anywhere from 47 to 48.5 points. That number has dipped to as low as 46 points and settled at 46.5 (-110) across U.S. sportsbooks. The Jags Over/Under record at home was 2-4-0 to the Under. Meanwhile, the O/U record for EMU as the away team was also 2-4-0 to the Under.

My lean for this game would be the Under, but I hope the public drives the number to 47.5 or higher. We have two of the nation's best red zone defenses featured Saturday evening, and with reserves playing key offensive roles for both programs, the Under might also be a good bet.

South Alabama vs Eastern Michigan betting trend to know

The Eagles are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a straight-up win. Find more college football betting trends for South Alabama vs Eastern Michigan.

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