NBA Best Bets for Thursday: 76ers vs. Heat odds, picks, predictions, & props
With the 2022-23 NBA regular season racing toward the finish line, the third-seeded 76ers host the seventh-seeded Heat this evening in an Eastern Conference tilt with plenty of playoff implications (7:30 p.m. ET, TNT). Miami (42-37) sits 1.5 games behind Brooklyn (44-36) for the sixth seed, the last seed safe from the play-in tournament. The Sixers (52-27) sit a little more comfortably at the three seed, leading Cleveland by 2.5 games. Let's look at the odds for this late-season showdown and tell you which way you should consider betting it.
The Heat come into tonight's battle riding a two-game winning streak and six wins in its past 10 games. Philly, meanwhile, is just coasting to the finish line with a 5-5 record over its past 10. The Sixers just barely got past Boston at home on Tuesday, struggling to eke out a 103-101 win despite Jaylen Brown being sidelined for the Celtics. MVP favorite Joel Embiid poured in 52 points to go along with 13 rebounds, six assists, and two blocks. Sixers coach Doc Rivers said after the game "the MVP race is over."
The race for Eastern Conference seeding is far from over, and Miami will be much more invested in winning this evening's game than Philly. Winning at the Wells Fargo Center might be a tall task for Erik Spoelstra's squad. The Sixers are 29-11 at home, and Embiid seems focused on locking up his first-ever MVP award now that Nikola Jokic has missed a handful of games.
One of the Achilles' heels for this Miami squad has been playing on the road. The Heat are just 16-23 away from South Beach, easily one of the worst road records among postseason-bound teams. Making matters worse, Heat All-Star big man Bam Adebayo (quad) and point guard Kyle Lowry (knee) started the afternoon as "questionable" to play this evening. Adebayo has since been upgraded to "probable," while the veteran Lowry remains a game-time decision.
Will Embiid, James Harden, and the 76ers hold court and win the regular season head-to-head series against Miami 2-1, or will former Sixer Jimmy Butler put his foot on the gas and tag-team with Tyler Herro to mount the big road upset? Let's dive into the 76ers-Heat odds, uncover some stats and betting trends, and make our best bets and predictions for this nationally televised battle.
76ers vs. Heat odds, picks, predictions
Not surprisingly, oddsmakers have listed the steady Sixers as modestly healthy -3.5 home favorites at open and shifted them down to -2.5 since Adebayo was declared "probable." Philly has gone 45-33-1 against the spread this season, and 24-15-1 ATS at home. The Heat rank dead last in the NBA with a 36.8-percent cover rate (28-48-3), weighed down heavily by a 14-23-1 ATS road record. Considering these cover rates, not to mention the relative health of top Philly catalysts Embiid, Harden, Tyrese Maxey, and Tobias Harris, -2.5 seems almost modest.
A motivated Miami squad with Butler always has a chance, as the two-way stud always seems to step up his game at this time of year. Jimmy Buckets barely shot the ball through three quarters against the Pistons on Tuesday, then exploded for 18 points in the fourth quarter on 7-of-7 shooting and 4-of-4 from the line. The four-time All-NBA selection finished with 28 points, eight rebounds, and eight assists.
However, the question remains whether Miami has enough offensive firepower outside of Butler. Adebayo has proven himself to be a stud interior banger with a soft touch from around the lane, but he's nowhere near as dominant an offensive force as other playoff bigs like Embiid, Giannis, and Jokic. Tyler Herro, last year's Sixth Man of the Year, remains a microwave when he's plugged in but hasn't been nearly as strong as a starter as we have come to expect from him. Lowry has been a shell of his former All-Star self, and midseason acquisition Kevin Love is clearly on the downslope of his career.
A team entrusting any kind of offensive rotational roles to Max Strus, Gabe Vincent, and Caleb Martin seems like a team that will get leveled by the likes of Eastern Conference superpowers like Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Boston, and perhaps even Cleveland and the New York teams. But right now, the sole objective for Spoelstra's guys is to avoid the extra game or two that would come with a play-in seed.
We simply must prepare ourselves for the possibility that Embiid or Harden may sit out tonight. As we said, Philadelphia has less riding on this game than Miami, but we think that JoJo will keep gunning through the last few games so he locks up MVP once and for all. Embiid plays better with Harden on the floor, so consider them a package effort this evening and consider Philadelphia the best bet to take down this home tilt against an inferior Miami team.
Best Bets: 76ers (-145). You can also go Philly -1.5 at -120.
76ers vs. Heat best player prop bet: Joel Embiid OVER 41.5 points + rebounds
Embiid might have secured the MVP race in Rivers' eyes with his 52-point effort in a big late-season win over the Celtics, but in JoJo's eyes, the Sixers should have defeated a Jayson Tatum-less Boston squad by double-digits. We can see The Process making it a point of going off against former teammate Butler and the Heat, who the Sixers have split the regular season series with 1-1. Undisputed MVPs get it done right until the finish line, and we expect no less from Embiid on Thursday night. We have him pegged for 32-plus points and 12-plus rebounds, and we think he will once again dominate the nightly headlines after dominating the marquee nationally televised game.
