AC Milan vs PSG prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for Champions League group stage match

It's top against bottom in Champions League Group F play as PSG travel to Italy to take on AC Milan at the San Siro on Tuesday.

The French side sit at the summit of this season's Group of Death, having collected six points from their first three matches. Now embarking on the second half of the group schedule, Kylian Mbappe can put one foot in the knockout stage by reprising their 3-0 home win over Milan with a victory in this reverse fixture.

Milan, meanwhile, have struggled mightily to score goals both domestically and abroad this season, relying on a smothering defensive structure. They played to a pair of scoreless draws to start group stage play, but fell heavily in Paris last time out, leaving them in the basement of the standings on just two points and yet to score a single goal.

Despite that, all four teams remain firmly in the mix, and depending on how the Dortmund versus Newcastle match plays out in Germany in one of the day's early kickoffs, the standings could look a whole lot different at the end of these 90 minutes.

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AC Milan vs PSG match facts

• Date: Tuesday, November 7, 2023
• Kickoff Time: 8 p.m. local (3 p.m. ET / 12 p.m. PT)
• Location: San Siro (Milan, Italy)
• Official: Jesus Gil Manzano (Spain)
• Last meeting: PSG 3-0 AC Milan (Oct. 25, 2023 | UEFA Champions League)

AC Milan vs PSG prediction, odds

• Moneyline lean: PSG (+130)
• Score prediction: AC Milan 0-2 PSG

Despite the fact that AC Milan have yet to score through a full 270 minutes of Champions League action this season, and were blanked by Udinese over the weekend in Serie A, the betting market still seems to expect goals to flow in this match.

That's just senseless, as Rafael Leao is in terrible form, trying to play hero ball and failing to link up effectively with teammates. It's forcing the rest of his team to feed on scraps up front, and the result is a measly 0.4 xG and 0.7 xA for Leao through three Champions League games.

PSG, meanwhile, cannot stop scoring right now, and it's hard to see any other outcome besides a Parisian victory in Milan.

AC Milan vs PSG: best bet

• Pick: Under 2.5 goals
• Odds: +105 (DraftKings)

AC Milan played to two scoreless draws prior to the 3-0 defeat in Paris last time out, and while they have defensive injury issues galore, they are still well-coached and well structured to keep opponents at bay. PSG are a threat to hit the over on their own at times, but here at the San Siro, one or two goals should be enough to win the game.

Even in the match two weeks ago at PSG, the hosts scored their three goals on just 1.33 xG, able to put seven of their 13 shots on frame and finish well with 2.36 xGOT, but Milan could still count themselves a bit unlucky. The chances will be few and far between in this match.

AC Milan vs PSG prop bet

• Pick: Kylian Mbappe anytime goal scorer
• Odds: +115 (DraftKings)

Getting Kylian Mbappe at plus odds to score in a big game feels like daylight robbery. The French star has scored in two of three Champions League matches this season, and he remains in fine domestic form as well. He was poor in the weekend win over Montpellier, but he bagged a brace against Brest the game prior, including an 89th minute winner.

There are few players in the world game more clutch than the Frenchman, and in a match where we expect goals to be at a premium, Mbappe will be one of the most influential figures across the 90 minutes. He is sure to have a hand in the game's eventual outcome.