Adesanya vs Strickland Prediction, Picks, Odds & Props for UFC 293

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05 September 2023

Adesanya vs Strickland Prediction, Picks, Odds & Props for UFC 293

UFC 293 airs from a land down under this weekend as today’s top MMA stars invade Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia on Saturday. The pay-per-view event is headlined by a massive middleweight championship meeting between Israel Adesanya and Sean Strickland.

Adesanya heads into Sydney looking to make the first successful defense of his second UFC Middleweight Championship reign. Meanwhile, this fight is Strickland’s first shot at gold, leaving time to tell if he has what it takes to capitalize on the opportunity.

For those looking to get in on the Adesanya vs Strickland betting action, Betting News has everything covered. Keep reading for the latest UFC 293 main event odds, as well as my prediction and best bets for the upcoming bout.

UFC 293: Adesenya vs Strickland Odds

Moneyline

Israel Adesanya (-650)
Sean Strickland (+475)

Will the Fight Go the Distance?

Round Total

Over 4.5 Rounds (-110)
Under 4.5 Rounds (-120)

Adesanya vs Strickland Tale of the Tape

Israel Adesanya — Sean Strickland

Record: 24-2 — 27-5
Height: 6’4” — 6’1”
Reach: 80” — 76”
Weight: 185 lbs — 185 lbs
Age: 34 — 32
Fighting Stance: Switch — Orthodox
Knockouts: 16 — 11

Adesanya vs Strickland UFC 293 Preview

While some UFC 293 fights could go either way, oddsmakers don’t see that being the case here. Adesanya’s -650 moneyline odds on BetOnline carry an implied win probability of 86.7%.

It isn’t shocking to see Adesanya as the heavy favorite due to his being one of the most dominant fighters that the UFC has ever seen. He’s dominated and destroyed some of the top middleweights that the sport has to offer without breaking much of a sweat.

After a 23-1 start to his career, the “Last Stylebender” suffered a brief setback when he lost the middleweight championship to Alex Pereira back in November. Much to his delight, it only took Adesanya five months to get back on track, regaining the title by KO’ing Pereira in the first round of their bout at UFC 287.

He hasn’t fought since then, though, making it interesting to see if this is the start of another lengthy reign or not.

At the same time, Strickland has done well when it comes to making a name for himself in recent years.

An ex-KOTC Middleweight Champion, Strickland has amassed a 14-5 record since making his UFC debut. While he’s flirted with success and winning streaks throughout his run, this weekend’s main event is the biggest bout of his career by far.

Things looked grim for the 32-year-old when he suffered back-to-back losses to Alex Pereira and Jared Cannonier last year, but he’s since gotten back on track with victories over Nassourdine Imavov (via unanimous decision) and Abusupiyan Magomedov (via KO).

Strickland does face some uphill challenges, though. For starters, Adesanya is taller by three inches while also boasting a four-inch reach advantage. That’s not even to mention how the defending champion has superior cardio.

On top of that, Adesanya also has better cardio while also having the edge when it comes to striking accuracy (49% vs. 41%) and significant strikes absorbed per minute (2.88 vs. 4.28).

UFC 293: Adesanya vs Strickland Betting Trends and Markets

For those looking to bet on more than the Adesanya vs Strickland moneyline, BetOnline has you covered with a wide variety of markets ahead of the UFC 293 main event.

One interesting bet that sticks out is that BetOnline is favoring that the fight won’t go the distance at -140 odds. What makes this interesting is that seven of Adesanya’s last 11 fights went the distance while five of Strickland’s seven previous outings did the same.

At the same time, the sportsbook is equally favoring Adesanya to win either by points or KO/TKO at +115 odds apiece. Although his most recent win was by way of knockout, six of the champion’s last nine victories were earned via decision.

If Strickland, somehow, pulls off an upset, his likeliest victory method is a KO/TKO win (+850). Although “Tarzan” has earned 11 of his 27 career victories (40.7%) by knockout, it’s important to remember that Adesanya has only been KO’d once.

A first-round KO/TKO victory for Adesanya (+475) is another intriguing betting option at UFC 293. Seven of his 16 all-time knockout wins occurred in the opening frame and while Strickland has only been KO’d twice, each loss happened in Round 1.

Adesanya vs Strickland Prediction & Picks for UFC 293

Upsets are a part of the sporting experience, but I don’t see one happening in the UFC 293 main event. Adesanya is destined for more greatness and has all the tools to handle someone like Strickland, who’s barely had much time to recover after fighting on July 1.

As for the best Adesanya vs Strickland bet, I’m taking the champion to retain via KO/TKO (+115). Adesanya is a tremendous striker with a 66.7% finish rate and most recently knocked out Pereira, whom Strickland couldn’t even last one round against last December.

Expect a similar result as Adesanya retains before even reaching the fifth round.