UFC 293: Adesanya vs Strickland Picks and Predictions

Covers

06 October 2023

Israel Adesanya's mix of elite striking and footwork has the Middleweight champion due for another successful title defense on Saturday when he takes on Sean Strickland in Australia. Read more in our Adesanya vs. Strickland betting picks.

Israel Adesanya faces off against Sean Strickland in the main event for UFC 293 betting on Saturday. Adesanya is a two-time middleweight champ and is making his eighth title defense while Strickland has been working his way up the rankings ever since moving up to 185 pounds.

Bookmakers are expecting a lopsided fight this weekend, with UFC betting odds hitting the board with Adesanya as a -430 favorite and now sitting as high as -670.

Here are my best free UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland picks and predictions for September 9 from the Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia.

Adesanya vs Strickland fight odds

Adesanya vs Strickland method of victory odds

DraftKings
Adesanya to win (was -650, NOW +100)! Claim Now

Caesars
Adesanya to win in Round 1 BOOSTED to +600 (+was +550)! Bet Now

Unibet
20% profit boost on one UFC parlay! Claim Now

Adesanya vs Strickland picks

Fight prediction: Adesanya ML

This is MMA so anything can happen, but there's a reason this line is lopsided. Although Strickland is coming off an impressive victory, it came against an unranked fighter with just one UFC bout on his resume, and Strickland was only a -138 favorite.

Adesanya's only real weakness is his grappling but he has formidable takedown defense, and Strickland's offensive wrestling is nowhere near good enough to take advantage of that. Despite Strickland's recent knockout win, he also doesn't have enough power to catch the elusive Adesanya with a flash KO.

Strickland prefers to fight behind his jab and finds it much tougher to do that when he doesn't have a reach advantage. Not only does Adesanya have a four-inch reach advantage on Strickland, but he loves to utilize kicks which will hurt the boxing-heavy Strickland at range. In addition, Strickland tends to be heavy on his lead foot which makes him extremely vulnerable to Adesanya's leg kicks.

Adesanya's combination of his reach, striking arsenal, and footwork are simply too elite for Strickland to overcome here.

Prediction: Adesanya moneyline (-600 at bet365)

Fight best bet: Adesanya by KO/TKO

We're seeing a relatively close method-to-win line between Adesanya to win by KO/TKO (+110) and by decision (+145), so let's break down which outcome is more likely. Although Adesanya has been criticized in recent years for being a decision machine (six of his previous nine wins have been by points), this matchup makes a finish more likely.

Strickland generally displays good defense but he also fights with plenty of forward pressure and leaves his chin high when entering the pocket. That's a bad idea against Adesanya's crisp counter-striking, which we've seen him use to starch pressure fighters before.

In the past, Adesanya has shown a tendency to pick apart dangerous opponents at range while steering clear of their power shots (with the Yoel Romero and Jared Cannonier fights coming to mind), but he won't fear Strickland's power to the same extent. We should see Adesanya be more than willing to exchange shots in the pocket at some point during this 25-minute bout, ultimately coming away with a knockout win.

Pick: Adesanya by KO/TKO (+110 at FanDuel)

Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.

Adesanya vs Strickland betting preview

Israel "The Last Stylebender" Adesanya is coming off a second-round knockout win against Alex Pereira in April where he regained his middleweight championship. Adesanya had previously lost his belt when Pereira knocked him out last November to snap his streak of five consecutive title defenses.

Adesanya has racked up a 13-2 record in the UFC, with his only defeats coming against Pereira and in an unsuccessful title shot against Jan Blachowicz when he moved up to light heavyweight.

The 34-year-old is arguably the best technical striker in MMA and uses his length, quickness, kicking ability, and deceptive power to devastating effect.

Sean Strickland is the No. 5 ranked middleweight contender, but with Adesanya clearing out the division and Dricus du Plessis unwilling to fight on a relatively short break, he'll get a title shot. Strickland is on a two-fight win streak and most recently knocked out Abu Magomedov in July.

Strickland suffered a brutal motorcycle accident in 2018 and after a two-year layoff, he moved back to middleweight where he has surged up the rankings. He has boasted a record of 22-2 when fighting at 185 pounds (9-2 in the UFC), with his only defeats coming against Pereira and in a close split decision against No. 3 contender Jared Cannonier last year.

The 32-year-old is a high-volume striker with crisp boxing and an excellent gas tank. He lands 5.86 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.28, and his takedown defense sits at an impressive 84%.