AFC Ajax Amsterdam vs Aston Villa betting preview: Best odds from Dean Etheridge
AFC Ajax Amsterdam hosts Aston Villa in the Europa Conference League Round of 16 this Thursday.
The legendary Dutch side are enduring a torrid season in the Eredivisie. Aston Villa are having an outstanding season in the Premier League and are also the favourites to win the Europa Conference League.
- Over 9.5 match shots on target - 5/6 with bet365
- Ollie Watkins to score anytime - 11/10 with bet365
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Ajax have had a dreadful season in the Eredivisie. They currently sit in fifth place, four points outside of the top four, and in real danger of not even qualifying for the Europa Conference League next season.
It might seem hard to believe, but they have improved in recent weeks. After spending a considerable period in the bottom three, the Amsterdam club sacked Maurice Steijn and replaced him with John Van’t Schip. The former Ajax midfielder has steadied the ship, and the team has now finally started to resemble something like a cohesive unit.
But despite this, Ajax are still far too loose at the back. They have conceded in 16 of their last 17 matches, and against an in-form Aston Villa team, look there for the taking.
Aston Villa boss Unai Emery has seen his team climb back into the top four in the Premier League in recent weeks. Saturday’s 3-2 win away at Luton means they have only lost once on the road in their last ten outings (in all competitions).
Emery is a specialist in winning European trophies. But he does have a bit of a dilemma ahead of the Ajax match, as his Villa side take on fifth in the table Spurs on Sunday.
Unless Emery picks a weakened side with one eye on Sunday’s showdown with Spurs, we can only see a win for the visitors.
- The two teams have only ever played once before in a UEFA Europa League match. On that occasion in 2008, Villa won 2-1 at home with goals from Martin Laursen and Gareth Barry.
- Villa boss Unai Emery has won the Europa League four times as a manager - three with Sevilla and one with Villarreal.
- In their last seven matches, Ajax have won two, lost two, and drawn three. In the Europa League playoffs against Bodo Glimt last month, they needed extra time to see off the Norwegians 4-3 on aggregate.
- Aston Villa topped their Europa League Conference group with 13 points from their six matches.
- Five of Aston Villa’s last seven matches have seen over 3.5 goals scored. The other two matches had over 2.5 goals.
- Villa have scored an average of three goals a match away from home in Europe this season.
Find our best bets for Ajax vs Aston Villa below. Odds for the bets are provided by the best sportsbooks per our expert reviews. Odds in the betting tips are subject to change.
Both teams have been either scoring or shipping goals by the truckload in recent weeks. Okay, Ajax kept a clean sheet last weekend. But they conceded in their previous 16 matches before their 2-0 win over Utrecht on Sunday.
One clean sheet doesn’t mean they’ve stopped the rot. And they will need considerable improvement if they are to keep Villa out on Thursday.
As for Aston Villa, they have kept only one clean sheet in their last seven outings. The shutout came against a completely toothless Sheffield United. And Villa even needed a VAR offside by a toenail decision to keep their clean sheet in that match.
Ajax had eight shots on target against Utrecht at the weekend. Aston Villa also recorded eight on target against Luton Town.
Both sides like to attack and are creating plenty of chances at the moment. So with plenty of goalmouth action expected, over 9.5 match shots on target looks a good bet.
The Aston Villa striker is in sensational form and looks certain to be in Gareth Southgate’s EURO 2024 squad.
Watkins notched his 15 and 16th goals of the season against Luton Town on Saturday. But proving just what a team player he is, Watkins also has ten assists to his name this season.
With a match against Spurs on the horizon, the striker might not play the full 90 minutes. But Unai Emery loves a European trophy, so we would expect the Spaniard to leave Watkins on the pitch for as long as he is required.
- Location: Johan Cruyff Arena, Amsterdam, Netherlands
- Time: 17:45 GMT on Thursday, March 7th
- Where to watch: TNT Sports 3
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