Premier League Betting Power Rankings

NBC Sports

03 November 2023

Week 11 of the Premier League features a handful of intriguing matchups in terms of the Table, but there is intrigue within every game for sports bettors.

Will Manchester United show something after last weekend’s drubbing at Old Trafford in the Manchester Derby? The Red Devils have been average at best all season. Saturday they may feel like they are looking in the mirror as they take to the pitch at Craven Cottage.

Will Aston Villa continue their surprising pursuit of a spot in the Top 4? Forest will need to reverse the tide in what has been a disappointing start at City Ground if they are to slow the Villains.

The match of the weekend is at St. James’ Park on Sunday with Newcastle hosting Arsenal. Can Newcastle stifle the Gunners’ attack?

Matchweek 11 concludes Monday with Top of the Table Tottenham hosting Chelsea. The Blues uncanny inability to finish must find a way if they are to take any points from a Spurs’ team who is a perfect 4-0-0 at home on the season.

Here’s a bet for each side of every match for Week 11 in the Premier League.

If you’re looking for traditional Premier League Power Rankings, .

Wolverhampton

Have the Wolves ever sat atop any PL rankings before this list? Regardless, Wolverhampton is a much better team in the second half of matches this season averaging one goal after intermission. Saturday, they visit Sheffield United who have allowed 10 goals in 5 home matches. Wolves to score OVER 1.5second half goals (+270) will be a true sweat but the value is too great to not play.

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Brentford

The Bees have won their last 13 London Derbies. West Ham is coming off an emotional and hard-fought win over Arsenal in the Carabao Cup earlier this week. Here’s betting they have little left in the tank for Brentford. Bees to win at home (+110).

Aston Villa

The Villains average 6.1 corners/game. Forest concedes 6.7 corners/game. The bet is Aston Villa OVER 5.5 corners (-120).

Liverpool

OVER 2.5 Total Goals is hitting at 80% during Reds’ matches on the road. They visit an overmatched Luton Town poised to clear that number by themselves.

Tottenham

Spurs a perfect 4-0 at home. Chelsea brings its imperfect offense to Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Monday. Spurs ML (+110) and OVER 1.5 goals (-110) are solid looks.

Manchester United

The Red Devils are a mediocre club right now. They visit Fulham, another mediocre club. The only consistency with these teams is their inconsistency. Each struggles in the first 45'. A scoreless first half (+195) is reasonable.

Sheffield United

OVER 2.5 goals (-125) in Sheffield matches is hitting 80%. If you believe in the Wolves’ bet laid out earlier, the logic follows.

Luton Town

The Hatters have been held to three goals in four games at Kenilworth Road. In fact, they have yet to score more than a single goal in any of those four. Luton Town to score UNDER 0.5 goals (+105).

Manchester City

Can always run confidently with Erling Haaland to score the first goal (+170) against a Bournemouth team that has trouble in their own end on the road (2.75GA). City OVER 1.5 goals in the first half (+115) is a fair look.

Arsenal

The Gunners’ offense travels but this week they visit St. James’ Park where Newcastle has yielded just three goals in five matches. Two plays worth considering are Arsenal UNDER 0.5 first half goals (+100) and the more sweaty UNDER 4.5 corners (+115).

Chelsea

Lets continue to sweat the corners market with the Blues. They bring their anemic offense to Tottenham Hotspur stadium where the Spurs dominate the time of possession (63%). Chelsea UNDER 4.5 corners (-105).

Brighton

They may be 2-0-2 on the road, but its not due to a lack of goals in the second half. Brighton has scored seven goals in the second half in just four games away from Goldstone Ground. They visit Everton Saturday. Goodison Park has seen the home club score just once in the second half in five games. Brighton to win the second half (+138).

Nottingham Forest

City Ground has been anything but kind to the Reds who have just one home win in four tries. That said, BTTS (-150) has hit in all four of those games.

Burnley

The Clarets have played at Turf Moor five times this year. Their opponents in those five include Spurs, Aston Villa, and Man City. They take a step down in class this weekend when Palace (1G in last 6GP) takes to the pitch at Turf Moor. UNDER 2.5 Total Goals (-160) is worth a sprinkle.

Newcastle

Few clubs lock it down in their own end on their home turf like Newcastle. The Magpies have conceded just three goals at home. Arsenal will test that defense which in turn means less time on offense for Newcastle. UNDER 2.5 Total Goals (-120) is an odd play in an Arsenal match but applicable here.

Bournemouth

The Cherries have been a disappointment this season. On the road, Bournemouth have allowed 11 goals. As a result, OVER 3.5 Total Goals is cashing at 75%. Enter Man City led by Erling Haaland whom we bet earlier. Lets go with OVER 3.5 Total Goals (-130) and hope City stays motivated to score for the better part of the full 90 minutes.

Crystal Palace

Its been a tale of two halves for the Eagles this season. They are 2-1-2 scoring four goals and conceding eight. Three of the four goals scored have happened after intermission. Burnley is a slow starter as well as we have documented. We put a sprinkle on UNDER 2.5 Total Goals. Lets double down and play UNDER 0.5 First Half Total Goals (+150).

Everton

Goodison Park has not seen much offense in second halves this season. The Toffees have scored one game in their five home games. As mentioned earlier, Brighton’s offense has traveled this season scoring an average of nearly two goals in the second half of road contests. We have already bet Brighton to win the second half but expect it to be tight. UNDER 1.5 goals (+100) in the second half is appropriate.

Fulham

The Cottagers, like their opponent Man United, have been underwhelming. The Red Devils get more headlines for their mediocrity. Each club is 1-4-5 in the first half and 4-2-4 in the second half. Fulham has labored to score at home. In fact, they have yet to score in the first half at Craven Cottage. Man United have scored just one goal in the second half of their four road games. Hold your nose and consider UNDER 2.5 Total Goals (-110).

West Ham United

Assuming West Ham is worn out or at least fatigued after taking out the Gunners earlier this week and starts slow, would not be a surprise if The Hammers get blanked in the first half (-165). Not a ton of value, but it makes sense.

Enjoy Matchweek 11 and enjoy the sweat.