Air Force-James Madison prediction: Armed Forces Bowl picks

The James Madison Dukes look to cap off a memorable 2023 season on Saturday when they play the Air Force Falcons in the 2023 Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl.

The Dukes got off to a historic 10-0 start to the season, even getting ESPN’s College GameDay to make an appearance on campus, before finally losing a game. This is only the secondary year of the Dukes' transition to Division I, one they've handled excellently. They weren’t supposed to be able to make a bowl game, but because not enough teams were bowl-eligible, James Madison was allowed to play in a bowl game, where it drew Air Force.

Similar to the Dukes, the Falcons were able to get off to a fast start this season as they came out of the gate 8-0. Unlike James Madison, though, Air Force couldn’t get back on a roll after its first loss. The Falcons ended the regular season with four consecutive losses. Despite the losing streak, Air Force proved it can hang in games with some of the best that the FBS has to offer.

Let’s take a closer look at the odds and trends:

Air Force (8-4) vs. James Madison (11-1)

Kickoff: Saturday, Dec. 23 at 2:30 p.m. (ABC/ESPN+)

Point spread (from Caesars): James Madison -1.5

Over/under: 40.5

Moneyline: James Madison -120, Air Force +100

Analysis:Like all of the other academy schools, the bread and butter of the Falcons’ offense is their ability to run the ball. Quarterback Zac Larrier threw for only 744 yards and six touchdowns on the year, but he rushed for 579 yards and five scores too.

The team rushed for a total of 3,309 yards on the season with fullback Emmanuel Michel leading the way with 747 yards and nine touchdowns. Suffice it to say Air Force doesn't throw the ball much as its leading receiver, Jared Roznos, tallied just 11 catches for 302 yards on 11 catches.

While Air Force is looking to run the ball, the Dukes are the complete opposite, as they are expected to air it out big time in the Armed Forces Bowl. Quarterback Jordan McCloud has been very good this year, as he finished the season with 3,400 passing yards and 32 touchdowns.

James Madison has two superstar wideouts in Elijah Sarratt (74 catches, 1,076 yards and eight touchdowns) and Reggie Brown (51 catches, 1,010 yards and nine touchdowns). Both of these guys are big-time playmakers, and they will challenge Air Force down the field — something the Falcons haven't faced often this season.