James Madison (JMU) vs. Air Force Prediction, Preview, and Odds
The Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl will see No. 24 James Madison taking on Air Force on Saturday. The Dukes (11-1 SU, 8-4 ATS) make their FBS bowl debut being the Sun Belt’s best team in the regular season. The Falcons (8-4 SU, 5-7 ATS) were red-hot through eight games before they faded down the stretch. Kickoff from Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas is scheduled for 3:30 EST.
James Madison fit for level
In just their second season at the FBS level the 24 ranked Dukes were outstanding, losing only once behind one of the top scoring offenses in the country. They averaged 35.2 points per game this season, 18 best in the nation. James Madison’s offense put up an average of 430.3 total yards per game, with 287.1 coming via the passing game, second best in the Sun Belt. Quarterback Jordan McCloud has thrown for 3,400 yards this season, 14 most in the country. The senior has thrown 32 touchdown passes with only nine interceptions/. Over the last four games of the regular season, McCloud averaged 344.3 yards passing and had a combined 14 TDs and just three interceptions.
On defense, James Madison has allowed just 18.5 points per game, second best scoring defense in the Sun Belt. Opponents have gained 328.6 total yards per game against the Dukes this season. However, JMU possesses the best rush defense in the country, allowing a mere 61.5 yards per game. Defensive lineman Jalen Green is a menace, with his 15.5 sacks the second most in the nation. He has also recorded 50 tackles and returned an interception for a touchdown this season.
The Dukes will benefit from being one of those lone teams that will see most if not all of their transfer listed players participate in the program’s biggest game. The head coach who got the team to their first ever FBS bowl game will not be at the helm, as Curt Cignetti has moved on to become head coach at Indiana.
Air Force stumbles down the stretch
The Falcons were cruising along, undefeated and ranked in both major polls after week 10. That would be the last time they tasted victory as they faltered over their final four games of the season, the defense allowing 27 points per game in that stretch. On the year, the Air Force defense yielded just 17.9 points per game, the best mark in the Mountain West and 15 best in the country. They are allowing only 277.3 total yards per game, with just 96.3 rushing yards per game. The Falcons have also picked off nine passes for interceptions and have recorded 26 sacks on the year. Linebackers P.J. Ramsey (7.5 sacks) and Bo Richter (7 sacks) have accounted for 56% of the QB sacks for Air Force this season.
The Air Force offense scored more than 20 points in just two of their last six games while they averaged 27.6 points per game for the entire season. They are gaining 364.1 total yards of offense per game, with an emphasis on the run where they average 275.8 yards per game, the second highest average in the land. Quarterback Zac Larrier has thrown for 744 yards and rushed for another 579, second most on the team, this season. Combined he has accounted for 11 touchdowns with only two interceptions and seven sacks against him.
The Falcons see eight players opt out of the team’s final game of the season due to entering the transfer portal. Most notable of the group is running back John Lee Eldridge III who was part of the team’s three-headed rush attack, rumbling for 521 yards, third on the team, and six touchdowns.
Tuesday's Top Plays
Today's Top Plays
Tim "Money" Michael - 7-1-1 NBA Run Grab Tim's Tuesday NBA Best Bet For Just $45 -
Will Rogers - 10-2 NBA Run - Snatch up Will's NBA Divisional Total Of The Year For Just $30 -
Tom Macrina - 17-8 CBB Run - Snag Tom's Tuesday Night CBB Best Bet For Just $29 -
Brick Haus Sports - 14-2 NHL Run - Grab Brick's Tuesday NHL 108 Best Bet For Just $29 -
Best Bets
Full-Game Side Bet
Rating:
This will be the first ever meeting between the schools on the gridiron. It is Air Force’s seventh trip to the Armed Forces, the most of any team. One common opponent between the two this season was Utah State, whom Air Force defeated, 39-21, in mid-September and the Dukes took down, 45-38, the following week. That game was probably too far back to shed a lot of light on this matchup. Again, James Madison gets a massive boost with the inclusion of all of those portal players. Air Force does not have that luxury and with losses on the offensive line, their bread-and-butter with the run is in jeopardy. They also now face the top run defense in the country, something they have not been up against this season. The Falcons when 0-4 ATS in their last four games and 2-5 ATS over their last seven.
Take the Dukes giving the points.
Prediction: James Madison -2.5
Full-Game Total Pick
Rating:
While both teams bring pretty solid defenses to the table, they also bring some big-time dynamic offenses that are capable of lighting up a scoreboard. The Dukes offense scored at least 31 points in nine games this season and cleared 40 points on five occasions, including three of their last four games. The Falcons were tripped up down the stretch, but still managed a combined 46 points over their final two games and scored at least 27 points in seven games this season. There has been plenty of time for both sides to get their wheels rested and polished for one last go at it.
Take the over.
Prediction: Over 41.5
A sportswriter for over a decade, Craig has covered everything from the little leagues to the big leagues. His work has been seen on MLB.com, ESPN.com and in the sports pages of the Boston Globe and Miami Herald, among others. Having had a front-row seat to all the action, he has been able to positively blend a little bit of the old and the new when it comes to analyzing the game and breaking it all down. Though longing for the days of the old football card that would be passed around in the halls of high school, Craig is happy to see the business flourishing and ready to put his own mark on things as he joins our team here at StatSalt and Winners & Whiners.
