College Football Free Picks: Weekly Mid-Major Report and Predictions for Armed Forces Bowl featuring James Madison vs. Air Force
Welcome to Doc's Sports Mid-Major Report covering the James Madison University Dukes as they roll through the Sun Belt Conference in just their second year at the FBS level.
In the world of Joey, my non-stop advocating for James Madison's bowl appearance is what led the 11-1 Dukes to receive an invitation to the Armed Forces Bowl to take on Air Force. In reality, the lack of qualified teams allowed the NCAA to waive the restrictions placed upon newly promoted teams to the FBS level. However it happened, JMU has been afforded the opportunity to go bowling for the first time in school history.
Their foe in the Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl is the Air Force Academy out of the Mountain West Conference, with a record of 8-4. The game will be played at Amon G Carter Stadium, the home of the TCU Frogs, in Fort Worth, Texas, and is scheduled for a 3:30 pm kickoff with coverage on ABC and ESPN+.
There probably isn't a better correlation this bowl season between a sponsor and a team than Lockheed Martin, makers of some of the most iconic planes flown by our military and Air Force. Lockheed Martin is responsible for making the U-2 and SR-71, the F-16 Falcon, the F-117A Nighthawk, and the F-22 Raptor, to name a few.
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Air Force Offense
If you think that the Air Force Academy's football team would be an aerial force, you would be mistaken. The Falcons' wings are clipped, and they rely almost exclusively on their rushing attack, like every other service academy. Even though this year's edition of the run game is the lowest in 10 seasons (275.8 yards per game), it is still good enough for the 2nd-highest in the NCAA. Air Force's head coach Troy Calhoun, a former Falcon quarterback, has run the same offense for the past 17 seasons that he ran under his former coach Fisher DeBerry, the "Flex-Bone" offense. This offense, primarily a rush-first attack, lulls the defense into expecting the run, and long aerial attacks are often very successful. The leader in the NCAA for passing yards per attempt was the Heisman Trophy winner from LSU, QB Jayden Daniels, who has 11.7 yards. Air Force's QB Zach Larrier averages 12.5 yards per attempt but doesn't come close to the needed attempts per game to qualify. So, even though they only complete approximately four passes a game, those completions go for more than 20 yards a pop.
The Falcons have five different ball carriers over 400 yards rushing and, as a team, average 5.0 yards per carry. Overall, they have the 64th-best scoring offense, averaging 27.6 points a game. Their losses in the portal are minimal: TE Caleb Rillos, 3rd on the team in catches with seven, and a backup offensive tackle.
Air Force Defense
A stout defense has been a hallmark of Air Force over the past five seasons, with an average ranking of 10th in scoring defense, allowing 17 points per game. This year's edition was no different, 14th in scoring with 17.9 points a contest. They're 6th in the country in total yards allowed, giving up 263.7 yards a game, with 96.2 yards coming on the ground. As you can expect from a service academy, the Falcons are a disciplined group, averaging a scant three penalties a game for 26 yards. Uncharacteristically of a military team, they have a minus-four turnover ratio.
James Madison Analysis
In my last article, I predicted the Dukes' game against Coastal Carolina could be the last one for head coach Curt Cignetti. A few weeks after that resounding victory, Cignetti left for the vacant position at Indiana University in the Big Ten. The Hoosiers initially agreed to let Cignetti coach JMU in their first bowl game, but it was decided that a clean split was in everybody's best interest. While the Dukes moved quickly, hiring Bob Chesney from FCS Holy Cross, offensive line coach Damian Wroblewski will call the plays Saturday in Fort Worth.
While numerous JMU players have entered the transfer portal, only two have opted out of the bowl game. One of those players, however, is edge rusher Mikail Kamara, who had 53 tackles, 18.5 TFLs, and 7.5 sacks. Coupled with the loss of DT Jalen Green three games ago to a knee injury, a weakened defense loses more power.
One of the players in the portal but staying to play in the bowl game is QB Jordan McCloud. It speaks volumes to the Dukes' atmosphere that so many of their transferring players have elected to stay for one more game.
Signs like this are excellent indicators of healthy growth when you're trying to build and improve a program.
Betting Angles and Wager
The line for this game opened initially at JMU -4.5 and a total of 42.5, but as the news broke that Cignetti was leaving for Indiana, the line moved down to the current James Madison -1, and the total receded to 40.5.
It is quite refreshing to have a game with relative stability to handicap. Yes, the Dukes are losing their head coach, but Wroblewski has been in Harrisonburg since the 2019 season. Keeping the skill players around for one more game is huge for JMU's chances against their Mountain West foe.
These teams have one common opponent: Utah State, James Madison's fourth foe, is in the Mountain West and played Air Force. Each team beat the Aggies, with JMU winning by a touchdown 45-38 and Air Force winning a bit more comfortably, 39-21.
Vegas has this being a low-scoring affair, but I see it playing out differently. Air Force didn't suffer their first loss of the season until November 4th, in an upset to Army. That loss, however, sent them into a tailspin they could not recover from, and they haven't won a game since, going 0-4 in the last month of the season. During that 4-game losing streak, they allowed their opponents 27 points a game. James Madison has the 18th-best scoring offense in the nation, putting 35.2 points a game up on the scoreboard. I expect McCloud to have a great game as an audition for a future suitor.
We climbed out of the hole quite nicely in the last game we wagered on, hitting our 2-team parlay with three units on it. After subtracting the slight hole we were in, we are up, plus eight units on the season. I want to leave us with at least some profit for the campaign, so I'm making two wagers. The first one will be James Madison -1 for 4 units. This game will be one more statement victory for the up-and-coming James Madison program. The second wager will be a 2-leg parlay of JMU -1 and the over 41 for two units. In the worst-case scenario, we still have a two-unit profit over the season. The best case puts us up over 13 units for the campaign. Either way, we end in the black.
The Wager
JMU -1 4 units
A 2-team parlay of JMU -1/OVER 41.0 2 units
Season Total
9-8 50.0%
+8 units (+$800)
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