Air Force vs. Navy prediction: College football picks, odds

Before we get into this Saturday’s column, we must give a respectful nod to the Arkansas Razorbacks for fighting back against Alabama to give us a relatively sweat-free cover last weekend. Woo Pig Sooie.

Now onto this week’s Ugly Underdog.

Headlined by Ohio State vs. Penn State, there are a number of massive games for bettors to feast on this weekend including Florida State vs. Duke, Utah vs. USC and Tennessee at Alabama.

Every one of those contests has massive implications for their respective conferences and the College Football Playoff picture, but there’s another matchup that features an undefeated team taking on a bitter rival that has caught my eye.

I’m talking about No. 22 Air Force vs. Navy in Annapolis. The undefeated Falcons are 10.5-point favorites on the road. 

Not only is Air Force one of just 11 undefeated teams left in college football, but it has won five of its six games by 10+ points with only Wyoming keeping the Falcons within one score in a 34-27 thriller last weekend.

The Falcons fought back from a 14-0 deficit and got over the line thanks to a 58-yard touchdown run by John Lee Eldridge with just over two minutes left on the clock.

Air Force has a couple of tricky games left on its schedule, but the Falcons have as good a chance as any of the remaining undefeated teams of running the table.

Navy, which has won two in a row to get to 3-3, would love nothing more than to stop its fellow service academy in its tracks.

One of the great things about handicapping college football is that every team is different and there are extreme outliers when it comes to offensive schemes.

Air Force, for example, leads the country with 2,005 rushing yards in 2023. The Falcons average 334.5 yards on the ground per game.

That is 60 more yards per game than Liberty, which ranks second in that category, and 88 more than third-place UCF. Navy, by the way, ranks fifth at 235.7 yards per game.

The other side of that coin is that Air Force ranks dead last in passing yards per game with 78, which is 21 yards per game worse than the second-worst passing attack in the country, which belongs to — you guessed it — Navy.

This isn’t a groundbreaking revelation, service academies have run the triple-option for decades and that has made betting the under in contests between Army, Navy and Air Force one of the great traditions in college football handicapping, and it also helps us in our quest to find betting value in this game.

Betting on College Football?

It is pretty clear that Air Force is the better team in this matchup and is deserving of its status as a road favorite, but covering an 11-point spread in this kind of game environment is really tough.

First, the Over/Under is quite low at 34.5 points, which tells you points will be at a premium.

Second, both of these sides want nothing more than to just run the ball down your throat, which will keep the clock moving throughout the afternoon.

And don’t forget that both of these defenses are experts at stopping the triple-option, since both programs have run it forever.

Navy’s defense may struggle against the pass, but it’ll be just fine trying to stop a team that runs the same scheme it does. 

Not only do I like Navy with the points, but I think the Falcons are on upset alert on what looks like a rainy, windy day in Annapolis on Saturday.