ALCS Game 2: Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros
On Sunday, the Texas Rangers won their first-ever postseason meeting with the Houston Astros in Game 1 of the ALCS, earning a 2-0 victory in a tense pitching duel between Justin Verlander and Jordan Montgomery. The Rangers improved to 6-0 in the playoffs, while the Astros were shut out for the first time since early September.
Will Houston bounce back to even the series in Game 2 on Monday? Or will Texas win again and take a commanding 2-0 series lead back to Arlington?
Game Details
- Matchup: Texas Rangers at Houston Astros
- Date: Monday, Oct. 16
- Time: 3:37 p.m. CST / 4:37 p.m. EST
- Location: Minute Maid Park (Houston, TX)
Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Rangers +105, Astros -125
- Runline: Rangers +1.5 (-195), Astros -1.5 (+162)
- Total: Over/Under 8.5 (-105/-115)
Odds from Caesars Sportsbook. Subject to change.
Last Time Out
Sunday’s highly anticipated division rivalry matchup between the Astros and Rangers lived up to the hype as both teams fought until the final strike. Verlander and Montgomery were in top form and dueled into the seventh inning, but Texas scratched out a pair of runs against Verlander and ultimately held on to win.
Houston failed to give its ace any run support and was largely quiet on offense, managing just five hits (all singles) and a pair of walks. The Rangers weren’t much better with six hits, but one was a Leody Taveras solo home run that gave Texas some breathing room in the fifth.
Both bullpens were lights-out after the starting pitchers departed, closing out the game without allowing additional hits.
Moneyline
Despite getting blanked in Game 1, the Astros are still priced as slight home moneyline favorites for Game 2.
However, those odds don’t align with the pitching matchup, which favors the Rangers on paper. Texas will turn to postseason hero Nate Eovaldi, who has dominated in both of his playoff starts. The 2023 All-Star has given up just one run in each outing (both wins) while posting a 15:0 K/BB ratio.
The same cannot be said for Houston lefty and fellow All-Star Framber Valdez. Valdez was rocked in his lone postseason appearance thus far, giving up five runs on seven hits and three walks over 4 ⅓ innings during the Astros’ Game 2 loss to the Minnesota Twins in the ALDS.
Valdez has been shaky for Houston lately, with 15 runs allowed (14 earned) in 13 ⅔ innings over his last three starts. He also has a 4.93 ERA in 15 starts since the All-Star Break, making him tough to trust in this spot against the highest-scoring offense in the American League.
Eovaldi, on the other hand, has been a playoff warrior throughout his career and exudes confidence on the mound in big games. He’s 6-3 with a 2.70 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP across 56 ⅔ postseason innings.
As Verlander saw, Valdez won’t have much margin for error in this game. He’s already surrendered 12 runs (eight earned) in 16 ⅔ innings against Texas this year and could be in for another rough outing, making the Rangers an attractive play to win outright at plus-odds.
Pick: Rangers +105
Runline
If Texas takes advantage of the pitching mismatch and wins Game 2, it will also cover the +1.5 runline.
The Rangers are a perfect 6-0 against the runline in the playoffs thus far after covering again in Game 1. Unless Valdez suddenly finds his pre-July form, it’s hard to see that trend changing in Game 2.
It’s concerning for the Astros that they failed to score in Game 1, given their success against left-handed pitching this season. Their predominantly right-handed lineup will no longer have the platoon advantage in Game 2, which could mean another quiet game for Houston’s bats. Keep in mind that the Astros’ OPS was 58 points lower against righties during the regular season.
Meanwhile, Texas will be a tough matchup for Valdez. The Rangers were one of the best teams in baseball against southpaws this year, ranking fifth in wRC+ (115) and fourth in wOBA (.341). Right-handed sluggers like Marcus Semien, Adolis Garcia and Mitch Garver will pounce on Valdez early and often if he’s not hitting his spots and changing speeds effectively.
In that sense, it’s easy to see Texas jumping out to an early lead against Valdez while Eovaldi keeps Houston at bay, resulting in another cover for the Rangers.
Pick: Rangers +1.5 (-175)
Over/Under
With only two total runs in Game 1, the Under hit with ease.
Game 2 should feature more offense from both sides, however, now that both teams are back in the swing of things after several days off before Game 1.
Valdez should give up his fair share of runs, and the Astros are highly unlikely to get shut out again. They’ve only been blanked seven times in 167 games this year, and their only instance of back-to-back shutouts occurred in May.
Eovaldi should be more effective than Valdez, but he won’t be perfect against Houston. The Astros pounded him for four runs on five hits in 1 ⅓ innings the last time he faced them in September, so they’ve had some recent success against him.
Both bullpens are unlikely to be spotless again after using some of their top relievers during a close Game 1, giving enemy hitters a look at them.
Overall, this game should feature more offense than Game 1 and has a better chance of hitting the Over.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-105)
Photo by Chris Leduc/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
