Rangers vs. Astros prediction: Pick, odds for Game 2 of ALCS in 2023 MLB playoffs

After silencing the Houston Astros on Sunday night, the Texas Rangers look to take a commanding 2-0 lead in this best-of-seven series as these two in-state rivals get together for Game 2 on Monday. First pitch from Minute Maid Park is set for 4:37 p.m. ET, and the game will be broadcast on FOX. Nathan Eovaldi (12-5, 3.63 ERA) will get the ball for the visitors looking to continue his sensational postseason turnaround, while Houston turn to lefty Framber Valdez (12-11, 3.45) to help them get back on track.

The Astros enter as -120 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Rangers at +100. The run total is set at 8.5.

Rangers vs. Astros ALCS Game 2 picks: Monday, October 16

Injury report

Rangers

N/A

N/A

Starting pitchers

Nathan Eovaldi vs. Framber Valdez

What a roller coaster it’s been for Eovaldi this year. The righty spent much of the 2023 season as a Cy Young candidate, holding a 2.69 ERA at the end of July, and ripping off a remarkable stretch of nine quality starts in 11 outings from late April to early June. And then a forearm injury nearly derailed everything: Eovaldi missed nearly a month and a half on the IL and wasn’t the same pitcher when he returned in September, posting an ugly 9.30 ERA for the month with significantly diminished fastball velocity. Everything was trending in the wrong direction, and it seemed like Texas wouldn’t be able to count on him on October — so, naturally, he’s been brilliant across his last two starts. The righty’s fastball is back up at 95-96 mph, and he dominated both the Rays (6.2 innings, one run, eight Ks) and Orioles (seven innings, one run, seven Ks) in a pair of victories. Eovaldi has faced the Astros twice this year, and much like his season as a whole, it was a tale of two outings: He dominated Houston over seven shutout frames on July 1, then got shelled for four runs in just one inning of work in his first start back from the IL in early September. That Eovaldi, however, is much different than the one we’ve seen so far in the playoffs.

Speaking of roller coasters: Valdez, too, looked like a Cy Young candidate earlier in the year, but his second half was wildly inconsistent. The highs were astronomical — a no-hitter against the Guardians to start August, seven one-run innings against the Rangers to start September — but he also allowed four or more runs in five of 14 starts post-All-Star break. His first postseason start was more the latter than the former, giving up five runs on seven hits and three walks in just 4.1 innings of work in a loss to the Twins in Game 2 of the ALDS. The problem largely lies with the lefty’s sinker, which got hit pretty hard all year and got left up in the zone far too much against Minnesota. Valdez struggled in his first two starts against Texas in the regular season, giving up five runs (albeit just one earned) in April and a whopping six runs in late July, but he rebounded for seven innings of one-run ball against them in September.

Over/Under pick

Valdez’s recent form does make me a bit nervous here, but after a 2-0 final on Sunday, I’m backing the under once again. Even in that Game 2 loss to the Twins, we saw just eight runs scored, and given how well Eovaldi is throwing right now — and how good he looked against the Astros in the one start in which he was actually healthy — I think this number is a bit too high. Of course, there’s a ton of offensive firepower on display in this series, and Texas in particular has hit lefty pitching very well all season. But Houston has a rested bullpen in a must-win spot here, and I think they’ll have a quick leash with Valdez if things get out of hand given the off day on Tuesday.

Pick: Under 8.5

Moneyline pick

It’s hard to imagine Houston going down 2-0, but I’ll take Texas as road ‘dogs again here. The Rangers had the league’s fourth-highest OPS against left-handed pitching during the regular season and swung the bats well against Valdez more often than not; if Eovaldi has his pinpoint command once again, I think Texas has the edge here, which makes them more than worth the risk at plus odds.