Ally 400 Picks, Predictions, Odds 2023: Can Denny Hamlin Go from Worst to First?

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25 June 2023

Ally 400 Picks, Predictions, Odds 2023: Can Denny Hamlin Go from Worst to First?

The second half of the NASCAR Cup Series season kicks off on Sunday night at Nashville Superspeedway. Get all set for the Ally 400 with our NASCAR picks and predictions based on the top available odds from our best sports betting apps.

The NASCAR Cup Series returns to the track this weekend following the only bye week of the campaign. A race at the Nashville Superspeedway will kick off the NBC broadcast portion of the season schedule when it hosts the Ally 400 during prime time on Sunday night.

The 2023 race marks the third since NASCAR resumed coming to Nashville in 2021. A Hendrick Motorsports car has visited victory lane in each of the last two years, with Kyle Larson taking the checkered flag in 2021 and Chase Elliott winning in 2022.

A key difference for bettors to note between the races from the last two years and this weekend’s event is the evening start time. It will be interesting to see which teams tune the cars correctly to run well at night. Qualifying took place on Saturday afternoon, and it's reasonable to anticipate much cooler track temperatures for the race.

Here are our best bets and 2023 Ally 400 picks for Sunday night’s action at the Nashville Superspeedway (odds via our best sports betting sites; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Ally 400 picks

Outright winner: Denny Hamlin (+1000 via DraftKings) ⭐
Head-to-Head Matchup: Joey Logano (+120 via SuperBook) vs. Bubba Wallace ⭐⭐⭐
Top-10 finish: Daniel Suarez (+210 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐

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Ally 400 odds

Ally 400 predictions

Outright winner: Denny Hamlin (+1000 via DraftKings) ⭐

Can Denny Hamlin go from worst to first? After misjudging turn 11 and wrecking out at Sonoma two weeks ago, the No. 11 team will be looking to rebound in a big way during the Ally 400. Perhaps getting an extra week to let the frustration simmer was good. Hamlin put together a solid qualifying run and will line up eighth as a result.

Hamlin has recorded finishes of 21st and sixth during the two races held at Nashville Superspeedway. While his average finish of 13.5 is modest at best, it's hardly indicative of how well he ran in those two starts. Hamlin’s average driver rating of 111.0 is more telling, as he ranks second among all drivers only to Kyle Larson.

Although Hamlin has logged two DNFs over the last three races, he's still been one of the top-performing drivers in the Cup Series throughout the season. His drives at Nashville Superspeedway the last two years were much better than his average finish suggests. A ticked-off Hamlin can be very dangerous, and he'll no doubt be out for some redemption after the mishap at Sonoma.

Another aspect that makes this outright selection so compelling is the value being offered at DraftKings. Hamlin’s odds to win the Ally 400 are listed no higher than +850 elsewhere in the market, with a low point of +750. The +1000 price offers a considerably greater return.

Head-to-Head matchup: Joey Logano (+120 via SuperBook) vs. Bubba Wallace ⭐⭐⭐

One of the more peculiar lines on the NASCAR betting board this week is a head-to-head matchup pitting Team Penske’s Joey Logano against 23XI Racing’s Bubba Wallace. This prop can be found at three of our best live betting sites, and Wallace is priced as a favorite at each one.

While Wallace has been running about as well as any driver in the Cup Series lately, it’s tough to pencil him in as a favorite of any kind during a head-to-head matchup against the defending series champ.

Logano was a top-10 finisher during each of the races held at Nashville Superspeedway. Meanwhile, Wallace failed to crack the top 10 on either occasion, with finishes of 20th and 12th. Logano will also enjoy the better starting spot of the two when the field takes the green on Sunday night. Both drivers qualified well, but the No. 22 will line up fourth while Wallace will go off ninth.

Despite Wallace’s recent success and surge up the points standings, the opportunity to take Logano at a plus-money price in this matchup cannot be ignored. He also comes into Nashville with momentum after back-to-back third-place finishes before the week off.

Bettors should aim to make this wager at SuperBook, which is dangling a +120 price on Logano as the underdog. Although both DraftKings (+110) and FanDuel (+116) are also listing Logano listed at plus-money odds, the return isn't as great.

Top-10 finish: Daniel Suarez (+210 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐

After taking the NASCAR Cup Series world by storm a year ago, Trackhouse Racing hasn’t achieved the same caliber of success thus far in 2023. Ross Chastain was the points leader for several weeks, but he's now been struggling. Meanwhile, Daniel Suarez has been hit-and-miss all season.

Suarez is sitting 17th in points after registering only five top-10 finishes in 2023 entering the Ally 400. So, why back him for a top-10 showing this weekend?

Trackhouse has been strong as an organization in each of the previous two races at Nashville. Suarez scored finishes of seventh and 15th, while Chastain came home fifth during his lone race with the team in 2022.

And if Saturday’s qualifying session was any indication, Trackhouse Racing could be on its way to a very fruitful weekend. Chastain was the only driver to turn in a sub-30-second lap, and he earned the pole position as a result. Suarez wasn’t too shabby himself and will line up 10th.

Although he failed to replicate his win at Sonoma from 2022 in the race directly preceding the bye week, Suarez notably finished seventh in the most recent oval affair at Gateway three weeks ago.

With a solid starting spot and perhaps some momentum on their side, the No. 99 team could exceed many people’s expectations on Sunday night. FanDuel’s +210 listing on Suarez to be among the top-10 finishers could certainly yield a decent return.