2024 Daytona 500 odds, predictions, start time: Advanced model reveals surprising NASCAR picks, leaderboard
Bubba Wallace has been a strong superspeedway driver during his career, finishing second in the Daytona 500 on two occasions. Wallace also won at Talladega and is coming off one of his best seasons with 23XI, advancing to the Round of 12. He will try to build on that momentum when he opens the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series schedule at the 2024 Daytona 500 on Sunday at 2:30 p.m. ET. Wallace is a 20-1 longshot in the 2024 Daytona 500 odds, while Brad Keselowski is the 19-2 favorite.
Kyle Busch (10-1), Denny Hamlin (10-1) and Ryan Blaney (11-1) are other top 2024 Daytona 500 contenders according to oddsmakers. Which drivers should you include in your 2024 Daytona 500 bets? Before scouring the 2024 Daytona 500 starting lineup and making any 2024 NASCAR at Daytona predictions, be sure to see the latest 2024 Daytona 500 picks from SportsLine's proven projection model.
Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.
McClure's model was red-hot in 2023, nailing Martin Truex Jr.'s Clash win (20-1) as well as his win in New Hampshire (11-2), Joey Logano's Duel win (8-1), Kyle Busch's Fontana victory (10-1), Denny Hamlin's triumph in Kansas (6-1) and Kyle Larson's wins at Martinsville (6-1) and the NASCAR All-Star Race (13-2). The model correctly predicted winners in two of the playoff races as well, with Ryan Blaney scoring a 12-1 payout at Talladega and Larson winning at 9-2 in Las Vegas. It also impressively nailed five of Larson's wins during his historic season in 2021.
All told, the model has nailed a whopping 15 winners since 2021 and nine last year alone. Anyone who followed its lead on those NASCAR picks saw huge returns.
Top 2024 Daytona 500 predictions
For the 2024 Daytona 500, we can tell you the model is high on Ross Chastain, even though he's a 28-1 longshot in the latest 2024 NASCAR at Daytona odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Chastain stunned the NASCAR world with a win at Phoenix in the final race of the 2023 season, giving him four victories in the last two seasons. He won two of the first 10 races in 2022, including a superspeedway win at Talladega.
Chastain has a pair of top-10 finishes in his last three Daytona 500 appearances and has five at the track overall. The 31-year-old is not considered a legitimate contender by fans or the betting market, but he has proven the NASCAR community wrong throughout his career. Underdogs have been winning at Daytona consistently over the past few years, and the model expects Chastain to make a strong run at the title on Sunday.
Another massive shocker: Chris Buescher, one of the Vegas favorites, stumbles big-time and barely cracks the top 10. There are far better values in the 2024 Daytona 500 starting lineup. A rogue winner at Pocono in 2016, Buescher broke back through for his second victory at Bristol in 2022 and then had a three-win season in 2023 where he finished seventh in the NASCAR standings.
That included a win at the 2023 Coke Zero Sugar 400 but he only led two laps in that race and he's failed to finish seven of his 16 career starts at Daytona. He's also managed five top-five finishes at Daytona but he'll be treated differently in the NASCAR Cup Series now that he's established himself as a title contender and the model is fading his co-favorite status. See which other drivers to avoid and the rest of the projected NASCAR leaderboard at SportsLine.
How to make 2024 NASCAR at Daytona picks
The model is also targeting two other drivers with 2024 NASCAR Daytona odds of 15-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.
2024 Daytona 500 odds, drivers, lineup
Brad Keselowski 19-2Kyle Busch 10-1Denny Hamlin 10-1Ryan Blaney 11-1Joey Logano 12-1Chase Elliott 14-1Chris Buescher 15-1Kyle Larson 15-1William Byron 16-1Bubba Wallace 20-1Christopher Bell 22-1Ty Gibbs 25-1Martin Truex Jr. 25-1Ross Chastain 28-1Austin Cindric 28-1Austin Dillon 28-1Erik Jones 28-1Alex Bowman 30-1Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 30-1Tyler Reddick 30-1Chase Briscoe 35-1Michael McDowell 40-1Josh Berry 40-1Ryan Preece 45-1Daniel Suarez 50-1Harrison Burton 60-1Justin Haley 60-1Corey Lajoie 60-1Jimmie Johnson 60-1Noah Gragson 60-1John Hunter Nemechek 60-1Carson Hocevar 65-1AJ Allmendinger 65-1Todd Gilliland 70-1David Ragan 75-1Zane Smith 75-1Riley Herbst 85-1Daniel Hemric 90-1Anthony Alfredo 150-1Kaz Grala 150-1
