Andy Cruz vs Juan Carlos Burgos Betting Analysis and Prediction

On the undercard of Baumgardner-Linardatou in Detroit, we have an anticipated debut of reigning Olympic gold medalist Andy Cruz as he takes on veteran Juan Carlos Burgos in a 10-round fight. 

Read further for betting analysis and the official Cruz vs Burgos prediction ahead of betting on boxing matches this weekend.

Andy Cruz vs Juan Carlos Burgos

Location: Masonic Temple, Detroit, United States

Date and Time: July 15, 2023. 10 PM ET est. ring walk

How to Watch: DAZN

Cruz is making his professional debut. While Burgos is coming off a loss to a tough prospect in Keyshawn Davis via unanimous decision. 

Cruz is a Cuban boxer that has one of the most decorated amateur careers in recent history. He has a total of 7 gold medals representing Cuba in world championship level tournaments, including his most recent in the 2020 Olympics. 

The Cuban champion has an amateur record of 140-9 and signed with the massive promotion Matchroom Boxing. This is a huge step up going 10-round in a debut, which is pretty much unheard of. The 5’6” orthodox boxer is looking to continue his success and be pushed up the lightweight rankings quickly.

Burgos is a 35-year-old Mexican boxer with a professional record of 35-7-3 with 21 KOs. He has fought in three world title fights, with his most notable fight being a historically terrible decision ten years ago to Roman Martinez. He has now made a career of fighting all the top prospects in the lightweight division. 

If you look at Burgos’ career record, his only losses have been in world title fights or against undefeated top prospects. He will also have a three-inch height and reach advantage over the Olympic champion this weekend.

There are no injuries reported to Matchroom Boxing. 

As we work towards the best pick to make for the Cruz vs Burgos prediction, let’s see what the betting lines look like for this one. According to boxing odds, Cruz is a massive -3000 betting favorite over the +1360 long shot.

These odds are very interesting because Cruz is making his professional debut, and Burgos is a seasoned veteran with tons of high-level experience. The oddsmakers are probably going off of how Burgos lost to Davis last year, which was someone that Cruz beat in amateur boxing.

The over/under is set at 8.5 rounds, but the over is going at -375 odds. The narrative going into Cruz’s career is that he has no punching power. He has been training with Boots Ennis and company, and they have said he is learning how to sit down on his punches.

On the technical side of things, the speed and youth of Cruz is going to be a big advantage over Burgos. Cruz has a very good rhythm and footwork and seems to be getting better every time he steps into the ring. This will be a perfect baseline test to see if he’s even ready to fight elite opponents any time soon.

Making boxing predictions can be difficult, but with a favorite like this, it’s tough to bet against Cruz. There is no value in his money line, so we have to find another pick to make. After breaking down all the available boxing odds, we have one.

The official Cruz vs Burgos prediction is that Cruz wins a unanimous decision, probably a score of 98-92, and shows a lot of upside. The best bet is going to be this fight going to a decision at -200.

Cruz doesn’t quite have the knockout power, and Burgos is very durable, even at age 35. Make sure to keep your eyes on any of the betting lines this fight week as we get closer to fight night to see if there are better odds somewhere.

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