Angels vs. Dodgers prediction and odds for Friday, July 7 (How to bet on total)
The Angels are in the mix for the playoffs in the American League, but the team is laboring coming into the break. Not only did they lose Mike Trout to a broken hamate bone, but the team has lost three straight and seven of its last 10 games.
Meanwhile, the Dodgers are surging in the NL West standings, pulling to just half a game back of the Arizona Diamondbacks for the division lead. It feels inevitable that Los Angeles will win the division, given all the talent on the roster.
On Friday night, the Dodgers have righty Tony Gonsolin (4-3, 3.69 ERA) on the mound. He’s looking to atone for a poor outing on July 2 when he was chased after just 3.2 innings of work.
He takes on Angels righty Griffin Canning (6-3, 4.29 ERA). Canning had a solid June, pitching to a 3.41 ERA in five starts. Can he bring that into July?
Here are the latest odds and my best bet for Friday night’s showdown:
At first glance, this may seem like a solid pitching matchup, but the advanced numbers tell us different.
Gonsolin has a Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) of 4.49 on the season, and he’s regressed over his last three starts, allowing 15 earned runs in 14.1 innings (9.42 ERA). His ERA has gone from 1.93 to 3.69 over that stretch.
Canning has his concerns as well, as the Angels starter ranks in just the ninth percentile in average exit velocity against this season. That means he’s been getting hit hard, even though his ERA is solid in the low 4s.
Because of the concerns I have with these starters, I’m going to back the OVER in this game.
Gonsolin has made 12 starts on the season and eight of those have seen nine or more runs scored in them. Not only that, but he’s a perfect 3-for-3 on OVERs in his last three outings.
These two offenses – even without Trout out – are elite in 2023, ranking fourth and fifth in OPS on the season.
That, plus the fact that neither bullpen has been great (Angels have a 3.90 bullpen ERA, Dodgers sit at 4.43), leads me to believe that we could see a high-scoring matchup on Friday night.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
