Yankees vs Angels Prediction, Picks, Odds
Carlos Rodon is ramping back up and his strikeout stuff looks good in the early going. Squaring off opposite Chase Silseth, who has been shaky in the opportunities he's received for the Angels, our betting picks like the Yankees.
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The New York Yankees are lost offensively, and they enter Wednesday night seeking a much-needed win over the Los Angeles Angels. With Chase Silseth on the hill for L.A. and one of New York’s best getting the ball, can the Bronx Bombers turn things around?
Let’s break down Yankees vs. Angels in our MLB picks and predictions for Wednesday, July 19.
Yankees vs Angels odds
Yankees vs Angels predictions
Carlos Rodon looked far better in his second outing of the season than in the first. Yes, the left-hander did allow four earned runs to take the loss, but pitching in Coors Field is not an easy task. What was more impressive to me was his ability to get strikeouts.
Rodon punched out six Rockies in five innings of work and only allowed six baserunners in the process. Walks have been an issue early on; he’s issued a free pass to 9.3% of the batters he’s faced. Still, he’s generating swings and misses.
We will get into his strikeout props a little bit later, but Rodon’s slider is looking plenty good enough right now and his fastball velocity is where it was last season.
The Yankees offense is a big mystery here. They’ve had excellent matchups in recent games with the likes of Chase Anderson and Griffin Canning only to flounder at the plate.
I can’t trust them here, but I can trust Rodon. With that, I’m playing a fun prop bet. I like the Yankees to cover 1.5 runs in the first five innings with Rodon ideally holding L.A. to one or fewer runs. I’ll couple that with the Under, accounting for the skepticism surrounding this lineup.
My best bet: Yankees +1.5/Under 4.5 first five innings parlay (+120 at FanDuel)
Yankees vs Angels same-game parlay
First five innings Under 4.5 (-122)
Carlos Rodon 7+ strikeouts (-140)
Mike Moustakas to get a hit (-115)
I know I already gave out a parlay above as a pick, but let’s take one element of that and build it into a larger same-game parlay. The stronger element of this two-legger is surely the Under 4.5 runs, which I’ll piece in with a bet on Rodon.
I like Rodon to rack up at least seven punchouts. While the whiff rate on his fastball is down, his slider is generating 45.8% in the early going. That’s an incredibly high number, and it should be said that the Angels rank just 14th against sliders this year with a negative run value per 100 pitches.
While they’ve been poor against sliders, Mike Moustakas has a 3.09 run value per 100 sliders in his brief time up at the big-league level. He’s been picking it up at the plate lately with a .241 average over his last seven games, and an 0-fer on Tuesday snapped a six-game hitting streak. I love the value on this leg.
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Yankees vs Angels moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Angels have won just one of Chase Silseth’s last six starts. While it says something about him, considering he’s been pretty terrible with a 4.56 xERA, it says much more about the Angels bullpen. Silseth has yet to finish four innings in a start, and it’s been the bullpen that’s let the team down in these games.
So, in a quasi-bullpen game, I’m inclined to believe the Yankees are the right side on the moneyline. Rodon has been much better than his expected stats would indicate. His stuff is identical to what it was last year when he was arguably a top-five pitcher in baseball. His slider has been downright filthy with a .098 expected batting average.
The Angels are a better offensive team than the Yankees, which makes me a bit nervous, but you’d still bet on the guy who has Cy Young talent in this matchup, at this price, any day of the week. The fact that Rodon could spin seven scoreless and lose is why I’m ultimately siding with the Under as my best bet.
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Trend to know
The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 52 games (+6.70 Units / 12% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Angels
Yankees vs Angels game info
Starting pitchers
Carlos Rodon (0-2, 5.23 ERA): The lefty has now made two starts after missing most of the season with a nagging back injury. He’s pitched to a .250 xBA and a low 18.6% despite an encouraging whiff rate on his slider.
Chase Silseth (1-1, 5.30 ERA): Silseth has twice pitched 3 1/3 innings in a start this year, but he’s yet to pitch more than that. He’s allowed just four earned runs in his last four outings, spanning seven innings. He’s also walked seven.
