Angels vs Rangers Prediction, Picks, Odds
The Texas Rangers have been obliterating baseballs in 2023, and especially when facing a lefty. Our MLB betting picks detail why a high-scoring game is likely when the Rangers square off against struggling Los Angeles Angels southpaw Tyler Anderson.
The Texas Rangers are where the Los Angeles Angels want to be and have been trying to get there for seemingly forever: the top of the American League West.
The Rangers have slugged their way to a 41-23 record and are five games ahead of the Houston Astros in the division. Their plus-149 run differential is the best in the Big Leagues, even better than the consensus top club in baseball, the Tampa Bay Rays.
Those loud Rangers bats will keep making noise on Monday as the team digs in against Angels starter Tyler Anderson. He's still trying to earn his wings with his new team since coming over from the Dodgers in the offseason.
I break down the MLB odds and bring you my best bet plus a same-game parlay in our free MLB picks and predictions for Angels vs. Rangers.
Angels vs Rangers odds
Angels vs Rangers predictions
The Los Angeles Angels signed Tyler Anderson this offseason to help their seemingly never-ending struggles to find consistent starting pitching. But unfortunately, things haven’t worked out that way for the Halos’ southpaw.
Anderson earned his first career All-Star nod after pitching to a 3.10 expected ERA while limiting opponents to a .225 expected batting average in 2022. However, command issues are creating a problem for the left-hander in 2023.
His strikeout rate is way down, and opponents are hitting him much harder and more regularly. The lefty is pitching to a 5.05 xERA through 11 starts in 2023, and opponents are getting to him for a .270 xBA.
Now he now gets to face off against a Texas Rangers team that smacks around southpaws. The Rangers rank fifth in batting average and third in OPS and wRC+ when facing lefties.
Countering Anderson is Dane Dunning. The 28-year-old right-hander is sporting a sparkling 2.52 ERA, but the advanced numbers say some regression is coming.
Dunning’s xERA is more than two runs higher than his actual ERA, which sits at 4.70. He's also surrendering a .277 expected batting average to opponents while his strikeout rate is in the bottom 9% of MLB.
And while the Angels' lineup may not be as potent as the Rangers’ batting order, Los Angeles' offense is certainly doing its part. With a red-hot Shohei Ohtanileading the way, the Angels rank eighth in batting average, OPS, and wRC+, and they've hit the fourth most home runs when facing right-handed pitchers in 2023.
Additionally, this game features two bullpens that rank 20th (Angels) and 24th (Rangers) in xFIP.
The Angels average 4.9 runs per game on the road against right-handed pitching while the Rangers average a stunning 7.17 at home against lefties. That all adds up to plenty of scoring. I’m betting we see some fireworks Monday as this game cruises Over the total.
My best bet: Over 9.5 (-125 at bet365)
Angels vs Rangers same-game parlay
Over 9.5
Anderson Under 17.5 outs recorded
Seager Over 1.5 total bases
This same-game parlay comes with a theme, and it's picking on Anderson. He's struggling and will do his part to send this game Over the total, which is our starting point. He could also be in for a short outing.
Anderson is already averaging just under 5 1/3 innings per start in 2023. His outs-recorded prop is sitting at 17.5 for Monday’s matchup, a mark Anderson has gone under in seven of his 11 starts during 2023. That includes a five-inning performance against Texas on May 5, a start that featured plenty of walks.
And who will help contribute to his short outing? Why, Corey Seager of course.
The Rangers shortstop is on fire to start June and is now hitting .348 with a 1.005 OPS for the season. Lefties don’t bother him, as he's hitting .362 with a .963 OPS against them. And he's 8-for-21 (.381) with a triple and a home run during his career against Anderson. So round out the SGP with Seager going Over 1.5 total bases for a +320 return.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
Angels vs Rangers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
Obviously, I think there will be plenty of runs scored in this matchup, and I’m not the only one. Pinnacle has moved the total to an even 10 with the Over sitting at -101, so other books might not be far off from a move. The play isn’t as tempting at 10, so grab the 9.5 while it's available.
There's a history of high-scoring games between these teams, and this year has been no different. The clubs have combined to average 14.7 runs per game over three contests in 2023, with the Over going 2-1.
When it comes to the moneyline, the Rangers opened this matchup as approximately -150 home favorites. They've been getting the early money, driving them up to the -160 range. That’s a 61% win probability for the Rangers.
I just don’t hold the confidence to lay that kind of number with a guy like Dunning, as he's due for some regression against a solid Angels offense.
Everything in this game is much closer to a wash than meets the eye. I lean very slightly toward the Angels as road dogs in this matchup.
Best MLB bonuses
Looking to bet on some baseball action? Here are two of the best bonuses* available:
B) Get a profit boost up to 100% on one MLB SGP at DraftKings! Opt-in Now
best sportsbook promotions for 2023.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Trend to know
The Over is 9-1-2 in the last 12 meetings between these two AL West teams when the game is played in Texas. Find more MLB betting trends for Angels vs. Rangers
Angels vs Rangers game info
Starting pitchers
Tyler Anderson (3-1, 5.62 ERA): Anderson is still searching for the form that earned him his first All-Star selection last season. The left-hander is getting hit around, allowing five-plus knocks in all but one of his starts.
Dane Dunning (5-1, 2.52 ERA): The ERAs say this is a pitching mismatch. But Dunning has been pitching to a 4.07 FIP and surrendering a .260 batting average to opponents since returning to the Rangers' rotation at the beginning of May.
