Angels vs Red Sox Prediction, Picks, Odds

Covers

14 April 2023

Angels vs Red Sox Prediction, Picks, Odds

Patrick Sandoval is coming off a career year in 2022 for the Halos and will look to inflict the same damage when he takes the mound at Fenway Park this evening. Read more in our Angels vs. Red Sox betting picks.

The Boston Red Sox will try to rebound from a four-game sweep at the hands of the Tampa Bay Rays when they host the Los Angeles Angels at Fenway Park on Friday.

The Angels (7-5) are tied for first place in the AL West after winning their last two at home against the Washington Nationals. The Red Sox (5-8) are now at the bottom of the AL East standings after getting swept by Tampa Bay.

Friday’s game features a solid pitching matchup, though one of the starters has found an unusual route to success so far this season. We’ll break it all down in our MLB picks and predictions for Angels vs. Red Sox on April 14.

Angels vs Red Sox odds

Angels vs Red Sox predictions

Patrick Sandoval is off to an excellent start for the Angels in 2023. In two starts, he’s 1-0 with a 1.64 ERA and has given up just eight hits over 11 innings. It’s the kind of start that gives Los Angeles hope that the 26-year-old Sandoval can continue to improve on his 2022 campaign (career-best ERA of 2.91 and FIP of 3.09).

But there’s been something strange about these first two starts. Sandoval has never been an elite strikeout pitcher by the standards of today’s game, but he has struck out almost exactly a strikeout per inning for his career. This season, he has only recorded four strikeouts in his first 11 innings of work — a rate of 3.3 punchouts per nine innings.

There doesn’t seem to be anything wrong with Sandoval that might be causing this. He recorded eight strikeouts in 7.1 innings while pitching for Mexico in the World Baseball Classic, and he’s getting results right now, if not in the way we’d normally expect.

More likely than not, this is simply a matter of a very small sample size producing some unusual numbers. Last season, Sandoval struck out at least five batters in 17 of his 27 starts. It wasn’t about going longer in games, either, as 12 of those 5+ strikeout performances came in six innings or less of work. I fully expect Sandoval to return to his typical numbers sooner rather than later.

That could start on Friday against the Red Sox, as Boston is an average team when it comes to striking out at the plate. The Red Sox have struck out 105 times in 497 plate appearances. That’s 21.1% of plate appearances, just a tad under the MLB average of 22.8%. The Sox have been striking out even more against southpaws, doing so at a 25.7% rate, though that could be an artifact of small sample sizes as well.

Sandoval may be able to take advantage of that on Friday, but even if that’s not a real trend, the Red Sox aren’t a particularly hard team to get strikeouts against. I also expect the Angels starter to revert to the mean here, and pitch more as we’ve seen throughout his career. That means we should expect about six strikeouts in a six-inning appearance.

Right now, the total on Sandoval’s strikeout prop is just 4.5. That’s a number that might still attract some Under attention because of his first two starts, but a longer look back shows it’s a bit too low for him.

I’m betting the Over on Sandoval’s strikeouts tonight.

My best bet: Patrick Sandoval Over 4.5 strikeouts (-125)

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Angels vs Red Sox moneyline analysis

The Red Sox opened this game as the slightest of favorites, with many books starting the game with Boston -115 on the moneyline. Since then, the script has flipped, and you will now find the Angels listed at -115 on most sites. You can still get as good as -110 on Los Angeles, however, and some sportsbooks are offering as much as +104 on Boston.

Most teams have come up short for bettors on the moneyline so far this year, though Boston has been particularly brutal over its first 13 games. Of course, getting swept by the unbeatable Tampa Bay Rays played a large part in that.

One pitcher who has gotten results for the Red Sox has been Tanner Houck. The 27-year-old is 2-0 with a 4.50 ERA on the season, posting two effective — if not particularly impressive starts. One of those outings came against the Detroit Tigers, who have been the worst offensive team in the league this year.

However, I like Houck to find more success in this matchup. The Angels are hitting just .216 with a .682 OPS against right-handed pitching so far this year while being far more effective against southpaws.

Houck has been a fine option for Boston both on the mound and out of the bullpen over the past three seasons, and while he won’t go deep into the game, he should give the Sox five or six strong innings. I’m leaning towards the Red Sox on the moneyline at plus odds.

Angels vs Red Sox Over/Under analysis

The total on tonight’s game opened at 9.5 runs. That has come down a bit, and as of noon on Friday, the current Over/Under is a flat nine. Most books are shading towards a higher-scoring game, with the Over listed at -115 and the Under coming in at -105.

There are good reasons for both the initial high total and the push to move it lower. These have been two of the more successful lineups in the majors so far this year. The Red Sox have scored 5.46 runs per game, with the Angels only slightly behind, averaging 5.42 runs. While the Angels are pitching well, the Red Sox are currently giving up 5.62 runs per game.

Even with a solid starting pitching matchup, those numbers would suggest a fair amount of runs tonight. However, I think the Red Sox will get a good start out of Houck, as he matches up well against a Los Angeles lineup that likes to punish lefties and isn’t nearly as effective against right-handed pitching. Sandoval should also do a good job keeping the Boston bats quiet for the Angels.

The pitching matchup has been leaning towards the Under here, and that’s especially true if you can get generous odds on the current number. If Under 9 gets to +100 or better anywhere, I think it’s worth a play.

Angels vs Red Sox game info

Angels vs Red Sox betting preview

Starting pitchers

Patrick Sandoval (1-0, 1.64 ERA): Sandoval is off to a strong start after two starts in 2023. He held the Oakland A's to just one run on two hits over five innings in his first appearance, then went six innings against the Toronto Blue Jays last Friday, again allowing just one run. While Sandoval isn’t getting strikeouts so far, he’s holding opponents to a WHIP of exactly 1.00 and has allowed only a single home run on the season.

Tanner Houck (2-0, 4.50 ERA): Houck has been one of the few bright spots for the Red Sox pitching staff in the early part of the season. He went five innings in each start, giving up five runs in total. His 5.09 FIP is concerning, though the number is only that high because he gave up two homers to the Orioles in his first start. Houck has pitched to a 3.12 ERA for his career and should continue to give the Red Sox solid outings going forward.