Blue Jays vs Angels Prediction, Picks, Odds

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08 April 2023

Blue Jays vs Angels Prediction, Picks, Odds

Jose Berrios got pummeled in his 2023 debut, giving up eight runs on nine hits over 5 2/3 innings. Our free MLB picks aren't expecting a repeat of that stat line tonight against the Angels, except for maybe one of those statistics...

The Toronto Blue Jays will play their second of a three-game set vs. the Los Angeles Angels tonight at Angel Stadium with Jose Berrios facing lefty Tyler Anderson.

MLB odds have Toronto as a slight underdog with the total at 9.

Berrios is coming off a trainwreck of an opening start but the Jays have enough offense to support the high-ERA pitcher. With Chris Bassitt eating some innings last night, Berrios’ leash could certainly be shorter than his last outing which is giving some MLB player prop value to his total outs market.

Find out where my best bets lie in my free MLB picks for Blue Jays vs. Angels tonight.

Blue Jays vs Angels odds

Blue Jays vs Angels predictions

Jose Berrios got annihilated in his last start vs. a weak Kansas City offense that currently sits dead last in average and slugging. The Royals smashed the Toronto Blue Jays righty for eight runs on nine hits and did it all without a home run.

Berrios also allowed a hard-hit ball (95+ mph) on 61% of his balls in play.

I wouldn't call that outing an outlier either, as the right-hander posted a 5.23 ERA a season ago and finished as one of the hardest-hit pitchers with a hard-hit rate of 43.4%. His ERA ballooned to 6.34 ERA on the road — and the big bats of the Los Angeles Angels historically have tattooed the righty as well.

Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout have seen Berrios 21 times and have combined for nine hits and three home runs. This is not a very deep Angels lineup, especially with Anthony Rendon out, but the No. 2 and No. 3 hitters can do enough damage on their own and with a total outs market of 17.5, the duo will get to see the Toronto starter three times — and the last ABs could be the last batters that Berrios sees.

In his opening outing, Berrios had to eat some innings because the bullpen was taxed after Alek Manoah and Chris Bassitt had abbreviated starts. If Berrios struggles again tonight, the hook could be quicker after Bassitt went six innings last night and the middle relief is in better shape heading.

THE BAT is projecting just 15.09 total outs, giving plenty of value to his Under 17.5 line.

My best bet: Jose Berrios Under 17.5 outs (-106 at Pinnacle)

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Blue Jays vs Angels moneyline analysis

The Blue Jays didn't have the starting pitching advantage yesterday in the opener and closed as +125 dogs in their 4-3 victory. Toronto was sitting around +110, but the Angels’ moneyline got hit once the Jays released a weaker starting lineup, which we likely won’t see today.

I put today’s pitching matchup as roughly the same advantage as last night, as the difference between Chris Bassit and early-season Jose Berrios isn’t much and the change from lefty Patrick Sandoval to fellow southpaw Tyler Anderson is also even. It’s a similar open price from yesterday when the Angels opened as slight -115 faves.

However, with Toronto rolling out a better lineup today, having a bullpen advantage, and facing an LA lineup that went 0-for-22 yesterday outside of Trout and Ohtani, the starting pitching matchup isn’t enough to scare me off the Blue Jays moneyline at -110 or better.

Ohtani and Trout have little support in the lineup, as when you have Trout and Ohtani bookended by unproven (and/or unreliable) names like Taylor Ward and Hunter Renfroe, you’re not exactly rolling out an intimidating lineup one through nine. Even if Berrios gets roughed up, this is a good enough Toronto offense to overcome a multi-run deficit as it did last night.

Anderson goes from the A’s in his 2023 debut to the Jays, which is as big a jump as you’ll have this year. The former Dodger had a 25% called strikes + whiffs rate in that game and as a pitcher who relies on contact — but owns a sub-40% groundball rate over his career — facing a team that is second in the league in barrels/PA and third in sweet spot % isn’t the greatest matchup.

The starting pitching is in favor of the home side, but with the better bats and stronger arms in the pen, Toronto can make up for a Berrios dud. If, however, the right-hander does navigate this LA lineup and minimizes the damage vs. Trout and Ohtani, the Jays could go wire-to-wire.

Blue Jays vs Angels Over/Under analysis

This total opened at 9 but has started to hit 9.5 at some sharper books as of 3:00 p.m. ET this afternoon.

The Over is the play here, without a doubt, at the 9: Both starting pitchers could certainly hit the Over 2.5 earned runs, as THE BAT is projecting Berrios at 3.03 earned runs over 15 total outs and Anderson at 2.95 earned runs at 16 total outs.

Berrios gave up eight runs by himself in his last start over 5 2/3 innings of work and although the Angels’ lineup doesn’t have much depth, Ohtani and Trout are a combined 9-for-21 (.429) with three homers vs. him. If those two come up with runners on, we could see some crooked numbers before the Jays go to the bullpen, which has pitched a lot to begin the season and some arms might not be available.

Anderson doesn’t miss many bats and with how hard the Jays are hitting the ball (Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Matt Chapman rank in the Top 10 in average exit velocity), there could be a lot of balls in play.

There are solid defenders on both sides but even Toronto’s ground balls have been getting hit hard, at an average of 87.4 mph (third-hardest in baseball). They’re barrelling at the second-highest rate and if they can elevate vs. Anderson, we could see some long balls today in a park that’s a little warmer tonight with double-digit winds blowing straight out.

I wouldn’t play this at the 9.5, but at 9, it’s a play for sure.

Blue Jays vs Angels game info

Blue Jays vs Angels betting preview

Starting pitchers

Jose Berrios (0-1, 12.71 ERA): Berrios didn’t start the season with his best stuff as the light-hitting Royals tagged him for eight runs on nine hits over 5 2/3 innings of work. Berrios struggled last year on the road with a 6.36 ERA and despite some weak hitters in this LA lineup, the middle of the order has hurt him in the past.

Tyler Anderson (1-0, 0.00 ERA): Anderson was scoreless in his opening start, tossing six innings of four-hit ball vs. the A’s, but has a tougher matchup tonight against a loaded Toronto lineup. He gives up very few hits, although he pitches to contact, and he’s out to prove last season wasn’t a fluke.