Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers odds and predictions
The Arizona Diamondbacks (43-29) and the Milwaukee Brewers (37-34) kick off a 3-game series at American Family Field in Milwaukee on Monday in a battle of division leaders. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Brewers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Diamondbacks lead 2-1 after winning 2022 series 4-3
The Diamondbacks took 2 of 3 games from the visiting Cleveland Guardians over the weekend to wrap up a 7-game homestand with a 3-4 record. Arizona has actually been better on the road recently, winning 5 straight away from home, while going 9-1 across the past 10 road outings.
The Brewers swept the division-rival Pittsburgh Pirates at AFF over the weekend in 3 games, and Milwaukee remains a half-game clear of the Cincinnati Reds for 1st place in the NL Central Division.
Arizona took 2 of 3 games from Milwaukee in the desert from April 10-12, but the teams each scored a total of 10 runs in the series.
Diamondbacks at Brewers projected starters
RHP Merrill Kelly vs. RHP Corbin Burnes
Kelly (8-3, 3.04 ERA) makes his 15th start. He has a 1.11 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 in 83 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 4 BB, 7 K in a 4-3 home loss in 10 innings vs. the Philadelphia Phillies Wednesday
- 2023 road splits: 5-0, 2.12 ERA (34 IP, 8 ER – 2 HR) with a .224 opponent batting average (OBA) in 6 starts
- 2023 vs. Brewers: Loss, 6 IP, 3 ER, 1 H, 4 BB, 7 K in a 7-1 home loss April 11
Burnes (5-4, 3.44 ERA) makes his 15th start. He has a 1.10 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 in 83 2/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 8 K in a 7-5 road loss vs. the Minnesota Twins last Tuesday
- 2023 home splits: 3-1, 3.27 ERA (41 1/3 IP, 15 ER – 6 HR) with a .213 OBA in 6 starts
- 2023 vs. D-backs: Win, 8 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 8 K in a 7-1 road win April 11
Diamondbacks at Brewers odds
BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 7:31 a.m. ET.
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Diamondbacks at Brewers picks and predictions
Prediction
Brewers 4, Diamondbacks 3
The BREWERS (-135) are worth a look in the series opener. While Milwaukee is a dismal 3-7 in the past 10 series openers, it won Friday’s series opener against the Pirates, and it is 4-1 in the past 5 games at home against winning teams.
In addition, Burnes twirled 8 scoreless frames in Arizona in a battle against Kelly back on April 11.
The Diamondbacks (+110) have won 6 straight series openers, but they’re also just 5-17 in the past 22 trips to Milwaukee.
The Diamondbacks +1.5 (-190) are a little too expensive for my liking if you want/need some insurance, and can’t bring yourself to playing Arizona straight up.
PASS, and pick the Snakes on the moneyline if you really like them.
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Take the UNDER 7.5 (-105), as we have 2 solid pitchers squaring off in the series opener.
Kelly has been unbeatable on the road, literally, going 5-0 with a minuscule 2.12 ERA. And Burnes posted donuts in 8 straight innings in the first meeting with the D-backs.
The Under is 4-1 in the past 5 for Arizona against teams with a winning record, while going 12-5 in the past 17 meetings in Milwaukee. For the Brewers, the Under has cashed at a 7-3-2 clip in the past 12 against winning sides.
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