2023 MLB playoffs: Diamondbacks vs. Brewers odds, line, Wild Card Series Game 1 picks, model predictions
The 2023 MLB playoffs begin in earnest on Tuesday. Four Wild Card Series 2023 games are scheduled across the league, including an evening tilt between the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Milwaukee Brewers. The NL rivals meet in Game 1 of a best-of-three series, with Milwaukee hosting the opener at American Family Field. Milwaukee finished 92-70 in the regular season and won the NL Central title, with Arizona posting an 84-78 record.
First pitch is at 7 p.m. ET in Milwaukee. For this game, SportsLine consensus lists Milwaukee as a -182 favorite (risk $182 to win $100) on the money line, while the over/under, or total number of runs Vegas thinks will be scored, is 8 in the latest Diamondbacks vs. Brewers odds. Before making any Brewers vs. Diamondbacks picks, be sure to .
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It went 331-285 on top-rated MLB money-line picks (+357) over the past two seasons. It entered the 2023 MLB playoffs 91-73 on all top-rated MLB picks this season and has excelled on top-rated run-line picks, going 18-6 (+766). Anybody following has seen big returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Brewers vs. Diamondbacks and just locked in its picks and MLB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several MLB betting lines and trends for Diamondbacks vs. Brewers:
- Diamondbacks vs. Brewers money line: Brewers -182, Diamondbacks +154
- Diamondbacks vs. Brewers over/under: 8 runs
- Diamondbacks vs. Brewers run line: Brewers -1.5 (+117)
- Arizona: The Diamondbacks are 41-40 in road games
- Milwaukee: The Brewers are 49-32 in home games
- Diamondbacks vs. Brewers picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why you should back the Diamondbacks
Arizona has tremendous team speed, headlined by top-two marks in triples (144) and stolen bases (166) among National League teams. The Diamondbacks also avoid strikeouts at an elite level, and Corbin Carroll is a breakout star. The 23-year-old became the first MLB rookie in history with at least 25 home runs and 50 stolen bases in a season, and Carroll led the National League with 10 triples.
While Arizona is facing a dynamic opposing pitcher in Corbin Burnes, Burnes allowed seven earned runs in his last outing against Arizona in June, and the Brewers are just 1-7 in their last eight playoff games. The Diamondbacks will hand the ball to Brandon Pfaadt in Game 1, and he recorded eight strikeouts in 5.2 scoreless innings in his last start on September 27. He will face a Milwaukee offense that ranked in the bottom five of the NL in hits, doubles, home runs, batting average and slugging percentage in 2023. See which team to back here.
Why you should back the Brewers
Milwaukee projects to have a tremendous pitching situation in Game 1. The Brewers will deploy Burnes to begin the game, and the three-time All-Star and 2021 NL Cy Young winner posted a 3.39 ERA this season. That ranked No. 6 in the NL among qualified pitchers, and Burnes led the league with a 1.069 WHIP. Burnes finished in the top 10 of the NL in innings pitched (193.2) and strikeouts (200), with opponents generating an ugly .200 batting average against him.
Burnes also ended the season well, allowing zero runs in three of his last four starts, and he has a 1.20 ERA in seven career postseason appearances. Behind Burnes, Milwaukee led the NL in bullpen ERA (3.40) with 9.21 strikeouts and only 3.50 walks per nine innings. The Brewers also posted a top-four ground ball rate (44.9%) among NL bullpens, and Milwaukee is facing an Arizona offense that was well below the league average in on-base percentage (.322) and slugging percentage (.408) this season. See which team to back here.
How to make Brewers vs. Diamondbacks picks
SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 8.7 combined runs. It also says one side of the money line has all of the value. You can only get the model's MLB picks at SportsLine.
