Arkansas vs. Illinois prediction, odds, time: 2023 NCAA Tournament picks, March Madness best bets by top model
The No. 8 seed Arkansas Razorbacks will battle the No. 9 seed Illinois Fighting Illini in a March Madness West Region matchup in the 2023 NCAA Tournament on Thursday. The winner will most likely face No. 1 seed Kansas in the second round. The Razorbacks (20-13, 8-10 SEC), who tied for ninth in the SEC standings, have lost four of five. The Fighting Illini (20-12, 11-9 Big Ten), who tied for fifth in the Big Ten, have dropped three of four. This is Illinois' 33rd NCAA Tournament appearance, while Arkansas is making its 35th appearance. Illinois leads the all-time series 5-0, including a 4-0 edge on neutral courts.
Tipoff from the Wells Fargo Arena in Des Moines, Iowa, is set for 4:30 p.m. ET. The Razorbacks are 2-point favorites in the latest Illinois vs. Arkansas odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is set at 143.5. Before making any Arkansas vs. Illinois picks, be sure to .
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. The model enters the 2023 NCAA Tournament 79-53 on all-top rated college basketball picks this season, returning nearly $1,300 for $100 players. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Illinois vs. Arkansas and just locked in its picks and CBB predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are the college basketball lines and trends for Arkansas vs. Illinois:
- Illinois vs. Arkansas spread: Arkansas -2
- Illinois vs. Arkansas over/under: 144.5 points
- Illinois vs. Arkansas money line: Illinois +115, Arkansas -135
- ILL: The Fighting Illini are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven games against a team with a winning % above .600
- ARK: The Razorbacks are 4-1 ATS in their last five neutral-site games
- Illinois vs. Arkansas picks: See picks here
Why Arkansas can cover
Junior guard Ricky Council IV helps power the Razorbacks. In 33 games, including 26 starts, he is averaging 15.9 points, 3.4 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 1.2 steals. He is connecting on 44.5% of his field goals and 77.4% of his free throws. Entering the SEC Tournament, he had reached double-figure scoring in five consecutive games, including 22 points in a 97-65 win over Georgia on Feb. 21. He scored a season-high 27 points in a 74-61 win over Troy on Nov. 28.
Freshman guard Nick Smith Jr. has started 11 of his 14 games for Arkansas. He has reached double figures in seven consecutive games, including 26 points against Georgia on Feb. 21, and 25 in an 88-79 loss to Kentucky on March 4. He is coming off a 16-point, four-assist performance in a 67-61 loss to Texas A&M in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals. For the year, he is averaging 14 points, two assists and 1.8 rebounds per game.
Why Illinois can cover
Senior guard Terrence Shannon Jr. helps power the Fighting Illini. In 30 games, including 29 starts, the Texas Tech transfer has been a force, averaging 17.1 points, 4.7 rebounds, 2.9 assists and 1.3 steals. He is connecting on 44% of his field goals and 79.2% of his free throws. In the Big Ten Tournament second-round loss to Penn State, Shannon scored 19 points, grabbed five rebounds and dished out four assists.
Senior forward Matthew Mayer, a transfer from Baylor, has started all 32 games for the Fighting Illini. In 26.7 minutes, he is averaging 12.8 points, 5.5 rebounds, 1.3 blocks and 1.2 assists per game. He has reached double-figure scoring in seven of the last eight games, including 24 points in a 91-87 double-overtime win over Michigan on March 2. He has recorded one double-double, a 19-point and 10-rebound effort in a 78-60 win at Minnesota on Jan. 16.
How to make Illinois vs. Arkansas picks
SportsLine's model is leaning Under on the point total. In fact, it says Illinois' Terrence Shannon Jr. and Arkansas' Ricky Council IV will score two fewer points than their season averages. It has also generated an against-the-spread pick that cashes in over 60% of simulations. You can only get the model's pick at SportsLine.
