Purdue vs. Illinois odds, score prediction, time: 2024 college basketball picks for March 5 by proven model

The 12th-ranked Illinois Fighting Illini will look to keep their slim Big Ten Conference regular-season title hopes alive when they face the third-ranked Purdue Boilermakers on Tuesday. A win by Purdue will clinch the outright title, while an Illinois win will trim the Boilermakers' (26-3, 15-3 Big Ten) lead in the conference to one game with one left to play. Purdue, which has won three in a row, is coming off an 80-74 win over Michigan State on Saturday. The Fighting Illini (22-7, 13-5 Big Ten), who are looking for their fourth win in a row, defeated Wisconsin 91-83 on Saturday.

The game will tip off at 7 p.m. ET at State Farm Center in Champaign, Ill. Purdue is averaging 84.7 points per game, while Illinois averages 84.8. The Fighting Illini are 2-point favorites in the latest Purdue vs. Illinois odds from SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 165. Before making any Illinois vs. Purdue picks, you need to see the college basketball predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. It enters Week 18 of the 2023-24 season on a 141-100 roll on all top-rated college basketball picks dating back to last season, returning more than $1,700 for $100 players. It is also off to a sizzling 26-17 start on top-rated spread picks this season. Anyone following has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Illinois vs. Purdue and revealed its CBB picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several college basketball odds and trends for Purdue vs. Illinois:

• Purdue vs. Illinois spread: Illinois -2
• Purdue vs. Illinois over/under: 165 points
• Purdue vs. Illinois money line: Purdue +119, Illinois -141
• PUR: The Boilermakers have won 25 of their last 28 games (+15.75 units on ML)
• ILL: The Fighting Illini have hit the game total over in 23 of their last 32 games (+13.10 units)
• Purdue vs. Illinois picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why Illinois can cover

Senior forward Coleman Hawkins has been red hot of late. In a 95-85 win over Iowa on Feb. 24, he poured in 30 points, while dishing out five assists and adding five steals. He had 20 points, three assists and two rebounds in a 105-97 win over Minnesota on Wednesday. Hawkins scored 13 points, grabbed seven rebounds and had two blocks in Saturday's win at Wisconsin. In 26 games, all starts, he is averaging 13.3 points, 5.8 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.7 steals and 1.1 blocks.

Senior forward Quincy Guerrier, who is in his first year with the Fighting Illini, played the last two seasons at Oregon. In 29 games, all starts, he is averaging 10.2 points and 6.7 rebounds in 25 minutes. He has scored 10 or more points 16 times and has registered eight double-doubles. The last time was a 15-point and 11-rebound effort in a 96-91 overtime loss at Northwestern on Jan. 24.  See which team to pick here. 

Why Purdue can cover

The Boilermakers are led by senior center Zach Edey, who is averaging 24 points, 11.8 rebounds, 2.2 blocks and 1.9 assists per game. He is connecting on 62.6% of his field goals, including 1 of 2 from 3-point range, and 71.8% of his free throws. He is coming off a 32-point and 11-rebound effort against Michigan State on Saturday. He had 35 points and 15 rebounds in an 84-76 win at Michigan on Feb. 25.

Sophomore guard Braden Smith is also coming off a strong performance in the win over Michigan State. In 40 minutes of action, he poured in 23 points, grabbed nine rebounds and added three assists. He nearly had a triple-double in the win at Michigan. He scored 11 points and dished out 11 assists, while grabbing eight rebounds. In 29 games, all starts, Smith is averaging 13.1 points, 7.1 assists, 5.9 rebounds and 1.7 steals in 30.3 minutes. See which team to pick here. 

How to make Purdue vs. Illinois picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Under on the total, projecting 154 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread is the better value. You can see the picks at SportsLine.