Illinois vs. Penn State odds, score prediction: 2024 college basketball picks for Feb. 21 by proven model

The 12th-ranked Illinois Fighting Illini will face a stiff test when they take on the Penn State Nittany Lions in the 6,846-seat Rec Hall in University Park, Pa., on Wednesday. The Fighting Illini (19-6, 10-4 Big Ten), who trail first-place Purdue by just one game in the loss column, have won two in a row and five of six. The Nittany Lions (12-14, 6-9 Big Ten), who have dropped three in a row, will be playing at Rec Hall for the first time since December 2015. The Nittany Lions had played their home games in the arena from 1929 to 1996, before moving into the 15,261 seat Bryce Jordan Center. The Nittany Lions are 514-183 (.737) all-time at Rec Hall.

Tipoff is set for 6:30 p.m. ET. Illinois leads the all-time series 32-22, but Penn State has won the last three meetings, including a 79-76 win in Chicago during the Big Ten Tournament. The Fighting Illini are 7.5-point favorites in the latest Illinois vs. Penn State odds from SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 157. Before making any Penn State vs. Illinois picks, be sure to see the college basketball predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. It enters Week 16 of the 2023-24 season on a 136-89 roll on all top-rated college basketball picks dating back to last season, returning nearly $2,500 for $100 players. It is also off to a sizzling 25-13 start on top-rated spread picks this season. Anyone following has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Illinois vs. Penn State and revealed its CBB picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several college basketball odds and trends for Penn State vs. Illinois:

• Illinois vs. Penn State spread: Illinois -7.5
• Illinois vs. Penn State over/under: 157 points
• Illinois vs. Penn State money line: Illinois -343, Penn State +268
• ILL: The Fighting Illini have hit the game total over in 21 of their last 32 games (+8.90 units)
• PSU: The Nittany Lions have won 17 of their last 32 games (+7.90 units on ML)
• Illinois vs. Penn State picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why Illinois can cover

Fifth-year senior guard Terrence Shannon Jr. has been on a roll the past three games, including two on the road. In an 88-80 loss at Michigan State on Feb. 10, he poured in 28 points, while adding seven rebounds. He scored 31 points, dished out three assists and grabbed three boards in a 97-68 win over Michigan on Tuesday, while adding 27 points and four blocks in an 85-80 win at Maryland on Saturday. 

Also helping power the Fighting Illini is senior forward Marcus Domask, who played his first four years at Southern Illinois. In 25 games, all starts, Domask is averaging 15.6 points, 4.8 rebounds and 3.4 assists in 33.8 minutes of action. He registered a double-double in Saturday's win with 19 points and 12 rebounds. That was his third double-double of the season, and first since scoring 16 points and grabbing 10 rebounds in a 70-62 win over Indiana on Jan. 27. See which team to pick here. 

Why Penn State can cover

With leading scorer Kanye Clary dismissed from the team, look for senior guard Ace Baldwin Jr. to take over some of the scoring duties. Baldwin scored 10 points, made five steals and grabbed three rebounds in Saturday's loss at Nebraska. He is in his first season with the team after playing three years at VCU. In 26 games, including 24 starts, Baldwin is averaging 14 points, 5.3 assists and 2.2 rebounds in 34.9 minutes of action.

Another VCU transfer the Nittany Lions will lean on is junior guard Nick Kern Jr. In 25 games, including 16 starts, Kern is averaging 8.2 points, four rebounds, 1.5 assists and one steal in 24.1 minutes. He played 33 minutes in the loss at Nebraska, scoring seven points and grabbing five rebounds. He had 18 points and seven boards in a 68-63 loss at Northwestern on Feb. 11. See which team to pick here. 

How to make Penn State vs. Illinois picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Under on the total, projecting 149 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits nearly 60% of the time. You can see the picks at SportsLine.