Arlington Million fair odds: Finally Set Piece's time

You could excuse the Arlington Million if it's suffered an identity crisis the past three years.

In 2021, America's first-ever million-dollar race was offered as the $600,000 Mr. D. Stakes at the track rebuilt by Richard Duchossois, the former chairman of Churchill Downs Inc., which brought the track from the veteran magnate in the early 21st century.

In 2022, the race returned to being known as the Million but was held at Churchill Downs in Louisville at  1 1/8 miles instead of the traditional 1 1/4-mile distance.

This year, the race has its third home in as many years, but many of the other traditions that make the Million great have returned, primarily a competitive, well-stocked field ready to do battle for $1 million at 1 1/4 miles on the turf, albeit now at Colonial Downs in Virginia.

And as someone involved in the making of both the morning and fair-odds lines, I can personally attest to its competitiveness. We ultimately landed on Atone as the 7-2 favorite but there are strong arguments that either no. 3 Set Piece or no. 8 Catnip could end up favored. They're the third and fifth, choices respectively, so I'm eager to see how the money actually shakes out.

No. 5 Rockemperor is the 5-1 morning line second choice. His "numbers" (e.g. speed ratings) are stout and the trainer-jockey combo of Chad Brown and John Velazquez is sure to attract some money, but it was hard to think a horse with a 2: 0-0-0 line this year who had not taken much money would be favored against this group.

So that is a thought on odds, but what about value? 

I do see Set Piece as the most likely winner, and if Atone is indeed the favorite, then given the 11-horse field that is competitive top to bottom, we'll get our price on Set Piece. He was last year's Million favorite, but that was a totally different style race than this one, which should have plenty of pace. Atone is dangerous as the one I expect to get first run on contenders such as Set Piece and Rockemperor, but I think dynamics are in Set Piece's favor.

Speaking of last year's Million, its winner, Santin, is also in here, but things have not gone his way lately. Name recognition counts for some dollars, so I expect that one to be an underlay.

From a wagering perspective, this is such a competitive race, I'm eager to let the board do the betting for me. Just compare the odds going to the gate with my fair odds and bet the overlays. I expect Set Piece to offer the most value, but if bettors end up making him the favorite then that just means the value ended up somewhere else. Regardless, I do think both Set Piece and Rockemperor will be worth playing in the trifecta with any horse in the bottom half of the field that is offering value. Let's gamble a little bit that one of the longshots can crash the party. In an 11-horse field that's almost always a better play than over-leaning on chalk where we've already said how competitive the group is.