Arlington Million 2023 predictions, odds, contenders, lineup: Horse racing expert reveals surprising picks

One of the country's most storied turf races will run at Colonial Downs for the first time when the starting gate opens in the 2023 Arlington Million on Saturday. The $1 million race was run at Arlington Park from its inception in 1981 to 2021 before moving to Churchill Downs last year. This year, the historic race has been moved again and returns to its traditional distance of 1¼ miles. The Mike Maker-trained Atone is the 7-2 favorite in the 2023 Arlington Million odds. Rockemperor, who is trained by Chad Brown, is the 5-1 second choice in the 11-horse 2023 Arlington Million field. Never Explain (6-1) and Set Piece (6-1) round out the top four 2023 Arlington Million horses.

Post time is 6:40 p.m. ET. With an accomplished and evenly matched field set to enter the starting gate on Saturday, you'll want to see what SportsLine writer Gene Menez has to say before making any 2023 Arlington Million picks.

A former reporter and editor at Sports Illustrated, Menez covered an array of sports, including horse racing, for the magazine and its website for almost 14 years. Between 2010 and 2012, he served as SI's handicapper for the Triple Crown races and correctly predicted Super Saver to win the Kentucky Derby in 2010. In 2015, while writing for Sports on Earth, Menez accurately gave out the Kentucky Derby superfecta (American Pharoah, Firing Line, Dortmund and Frosted), which paid $1,268.20 for $2. Then in 2017, he tweeted out his Kentucky Derby picks, including Always Dreaming to win, and hit the Pick 4, which paid almost $6,900 on a $1 bet.

On Dec. 26 of last year, Menez hit the Pick 5 at Santa Anita Park for $798.70. Then in a span of seven races earlier this year he cashed the winner of the Lecomte Stakes ($172.50), the exacta in the Southwest Stakes ($468), the winner of the Holy Bull Stakes ($180), the winner of the Sam F. Davis Stakes ($228), the place horse of the Rebel Stakes ($102.50) and the trifecta in the Jenny Wiley Stakes ($255.50). And in May he nailed the winner of the Preakness Stakes ($234).

Now, he has handicapped the 2023 Arlington Million lineup, made his picks and constructed his bets. Head to SportsLine to see them. 

Top 2023 Arlington Million predictions

One surprise: Menez is completely tossing the 7-2 morning-line favorite, Atone. A six-year-old gelding, Atone has seven wins, four seconds and four thirds in 25 career starts. He enters the race off a 12-week layoff, not having raced since May 20.

Atone's recent results have been underwhelming. Two starts ago, he was the last of nine in the Muniz Memorial at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans. In his last start, he finished fifth in the Dinner Party Stakes on the Preakness Stakes undercard. "Atone needs to get back to his form early in the year, and there's no guarantee that will happen," Menez told SportsLine. Menez is not using Atone in any of his 2023 Arlington Million bets. See who else to fade at SportsLine.

Another curveball: Menez is high on the chances of Catnip, even though he's an 8-1 longshot. Trained by Michael Stidham, Catnip has four wins, one second and one third in eight career starts. He is coming off a second place finish in the Grade 1 United Nations on July 22.

In that race, he forged to the lead at the top of the stretch but couldn't hold off the impressive Therapist. Menez thinks the cutback in distance on Saturday could benefit Catnip. "With his tactical speed, he could get a cozy spot right behind Strong Quality and Atone and get the jump on the rest of the field," Menez told SportsLine. Menez is using Catnip prominently in his 2023 Arlington Million betting strategy. See who else to back at SportsLine.

How to make 2023 Arlington Million picks

Menez's top pick is a horse who is in "career-best form." He also is high on double-digit longshot who is a "legitimate threat." Menez is including these horses in his wagers, and so should you. He's sharing which horses to back only at SportsLine.

So who wins the Arlington Million 2023? What double-digit longshot has a big chance? And how has Menez constructed his wagers? Check out the latest Arlington Millionodds below, then visit SportsLine to see Menez's picks for the Arlington Million, and find out.