Army vs. Air Force Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 10

sportsbookreview.com

02 November 2023

The Black Knights face the 25th-ranked Falcons in Week 10, and we present our best Army vs. Air Force prediction based on the top college football odds.

Army has encountered substantial offensive struggles over the last three weeks, scoring just 14 points in their latest game against UMass and failing to register any points in their two preceding matchups. This offensive slump has coincided with a troubling five-game losing streak for the Black Knights.

Meanwhile, the Falcons are in the initial College Football Playoff Top 25 after an 8-0 start. They’ve scored 30-plus in six of their eight games, and all their wins have been by seven or more. Air Force topped Navy 17-6 in its previous service academy game this year.

To accompany all of our college football predictions for Week 10 and our college football best bets, here is our best Army vs. Air Force prediction and our college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Army vs. Air Force prediction: Week 10

Army Under 6.5 Points (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

Seven of the last nine games between these two teams have produced a final score of 31 or fewer points. However, the Falcons have a very good offense, and they can hit the over of 31.5 by themselves. However, after what we saw against the Midshipmen, it’s clear that when two armed forces teams play each other, all previous offensive stats can go out the window.

Instead of selecting a side for the game total, let's take the Black Knights to score Under 6.5 points. While it would be preferable to secure a full seven points since the Falcons have allowed a touchdown in all but two games this season, there's plenty of reason to be confident in this wager.

The Black Knights are averaging 2.7 giveaways per game this season, the worst mark in college football. They’ve turned the ball over at least three times in each of their last three games. In a game where possessions will be hard to come by, the Black Knights’ track record at taking care of the ball makes it hard to trust them to score.

The Falcons’ defense is one of the better units the Black Knights will face this season. In addition, the defense will have an advantage in defending the Black Knights’ attack since they see it all the time in practice. We haven’t seen “Air Force to win in a shutout” listed anywhere, but it could be worth taking that prop if the price is +150 or better.

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Army vs. Air Force best odds

Only two of our best sports betting apps are offering this prop at the moment. FanDuel is offering a very inflated price of -130, which makes bet365 the easy choice for where to wager.

We like the price at bet365, but we think you can wait to see what the other best sports betting sites offer ahead of Saturday. You may get Under 7 for -130 or better, which would be worth a play. Or you could get a sportsbook that comes out with -6.5 at -110 or better. We don’t envision bet365’s price ever getting worse than -120, which is a number we would still play.

Army vs. Air Force odds

The Falcons opened as 19.5-point favorites, and despite 75% of wagers backing them, the spread has dropped to 18.5 points. Perhaps the reason for this drop is because of the incredibly low expected total for this game. The weather won’t be a factor on Saturday, so if you think the Falcons can score 24 in this game, we’d recommend taking -18.5 before it goes back up to 19.

The total is sitting at 31.5 points at four of our best sportsbooks. Currently, 71% of bettors are backing the Under, which could be why DraftKings dropped the total to 31 already. We saw the Falcons struggle to score against the Navy Midshipmen earlier this season, and armed forces games always seem to go under, but we don’t imagine this number dropping to 30 or lower.