Arsenal falling short of Premier League title would not be a disaster
Even after all this time, it’s sometimes still unclear whether we are watching Roy Keane, uncompromising pundit who tells it like it is and means what he says, or the character of Roy Keane being played by a man also named Roy Keane, who says increasingly cartoonish ‘Roy Keane-y’ things on TV.
His latest polemical declaration came on Sunday after Arsenal had drawn 2-2 with West Ham United. Keane — along with the usually more moderate voice of Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink — was of the opinion that it would be a “disaster” if Arsenal fail to win the title this season. Gary Neville made a brave attempt to introduce a little nuance into the conversation, but he was broadly shouted down.
You could write this off as Keane being Keane, just someone trying to be provocative on TV, but should Mikel Arteta’s team fail to win the title, it will be an opinion you will hear a fair bit.
On the face of things, you can see why people might say that. Arsenal were eight points clear a few weeks ago (albeit Manchester City with having a game in hand) and have been top of the table for most of the season. The gap is now down to four, City still have that game in hand and the meeting between the two is looming large, huge, colossal on April 26.
Pep Guardiola’s team have won six league games on the spin and it would have been nine in a row were it not for a freakish draw against Nottingham Forest in February. They have that ominous look in their collective eye, chasing down Arsenal like a covetous alien in an apocalyptic sci-fi film. Despite being four points back, they are favourites for the title with any bookie you care to place a wager with.
But if City do haul Arsenal in, it would be absurd to call it a “disaster”, or write off this season as a failure.
Arsenal are on course to get 91 points, which would be their highest Premier League total, surpassing their unbeaten ‘Invincible’ 2003-04 season.
Across their history, it wouldn’t be their highest total if you adjusted records for the two-points-for-a-win seasons — if they got that extra point for each victory in 1930-31 and 1970-71, they would have racked up 94. But then again, those were 42-game seasons, so if you adjust those totals for 38 games (using points per game), the tallies would be 85.
They have already won more games than in 21 of their previous Premier League seasons. They have won the same number of league games (23) as when they were champions in 1998. If they win just four of their remaining fixtures, they will have more victories than in the Invincibles season. They have already scored more goals than in that historic campaign.
Arsenal's last six PL seasons
Those are the facts. But consider the intangibles, too.
They have got to this point with a vibrant, attacking, mostly young and mostly extremely likeable team, the sort fans can identify with and really take to their hearts. Aaron Ramsdale would be England’s No 1 on this season’s club performances, William Saliba has blossomed, Ben White’s reinvention as a right-back is a revelation, Oleksandr Zinchenko has been superb, Martin Odegaard is a burgeoning genius and Bukayo Saka is as beloved as he is brilliant.
Arteta’s side have given their fans countless moments of joy, from the relatively straightforward appreciation of what they are watching every week to the explosive ecstasy of the late winners against Manchester United, Aston Villa and Bournemouth. For years, the reputation of the Emirates as a prime venue if you wanted a little peace and quiet was justified. This season, the stadium has fizzed with excitement every game.
But more than any of that, there is the opposition. Any team who has managed to even keep pace with Guardiola’s City at this stage of the season, never mind actually being ahead of them, can never be considered a failure.
Theirs has been an era of historic dominance, unhealthy state wealth and this generation’s greatest manager combining to make City a graceful juggernaut that has won four of the last five titles, averaging — averaging! — 94 points in those championship-winning seasons. Guardiola hasn’t shown any signs that he’s getting itchy and the money isn’t going anywhere, so it’s a dominance that will probably continue for a while yet.
It requires something exceptional to get anywhere near them. Liverpool kept it up for a few seasons, which required another modern managerial great and for them to essentially get every single recruitment decision exactly right. And now look at them: they seem exhausted, utterly spent and fading away like Luke Skywalker after he used all his powers to repel Kylo Ren.
City’s rapidly quickening footsteps behind them shouldn’t excuse Arsenal’s last couple of games. Sure, the pressure their relentlessness puts on any challengers might be a factor, but it was arguably complacency that was more important against Liverpool and West Ham.
But City’s dominance is so overwhelming that it has warped our perception of competition. There was a time when even a title-challenging team was allowed some margin of error, but not anymore. The relentless need to win at an unprecedented pace makes it easy to paint a couple of draws as a bottle job when these moments of fragility are just what happens to normal football teams. Even Manchester United used to drop the odd point.
It’s far, far too early to write off Arsenal. They could still win their first title in 19 years. But if they don’t, they won’t be failures, and it certainly won’t be a disaster.
