Aston Villa vs Arsenal tips: Premier League predictions

Aston Villa vs Arsenal betting tips

Aston Villa will play host to Arsenal in what promises to be a fascinating encounter on Saturday evening (5.30pm, Sky Sports Main Event and Sky Sports Premier League).

Both teams are in the top three of the Premier League table after the midweek round of fixtures and the two managers will be aiming to get one over on a direct rival.

Villa are on a magnificent run at home and they will be tough to beat, but Arsenal are the current Premier League leaders and can never be written off.

The Premier League odds have Mikel Arteta’s men down as favourites but this is a really tough match to call.

Villans can get result

To the surprise of no one, Unai Emery played down Aston Villa’s Premier League title chances after his side’s 1-0 victory over Manchester City on Wednesday night.

The Spaniard insisted there are “seven teams” who are better positioned to end the 2023/24 campaign on top of the table.

That may be true when we simply look at overall resources, but there are definitely not seven sides superior to Villa on the pitch right now and outright markets on football betting sites are starting to reflect that.

Indeed, only Arsenal and Liverpool have more points to their name after 15 gameweeks, the latest of which brought one of Villa’s greatest-ever Premier League performances.

It was remarkable to watch City be so comprehensively dismantled by Emery’s team. They landed 22 shots on the champions’ goal, while City mustered just two attempts in response. It was a record shot deficit in Guardiola’s managerial career.

Villa might not be able to dominate Arsenal to quite that extent, but they will be confident of at least avoiding defeat by Mikel Arteta’s men.

Villa have won 14 Premier League games in a row in front of their own supporters, while Arsenal only just squeezed past Luton Town at Kenilworth Road in midweek. Who knows, Arteta himself may not view a draw as a bad result in this one.

Betting apps have Villa as odds-on to avoid defeat and we're backing them to at least keep their undefeated streak at Villa Park alive with our first Aston Villa vs Arsenal prediction.

Attacks to get better of defences at Villa Park

Arsenal put their fans through the emotional ringer on Tuesday. After leading 1-0 and 2-1, the Gunners then found themselves trailing Luton by three goals to two.

Kai Havertz soon levelled things up but it looked like Arsenal were going to defy pre-match expectations on betting sites by dropping two points to one of the promoted teams.

But with just seconds of the match remaining, Declan Rice nodded the ball home in front of the travelling fans to give Arsenal a 4-3 victory.

It was a topsy-turvy game featuring numerous chances at both ends - and Saturday’s showdown at Villa Park will probably see attacks get the better of defences too.

Villa have an extraordinary scoring record on familiar territory. They are averaging 3.43 goals per home game in the Premier League, a better rate than any other team.

But Arsenal’s attack has looked likely in their two most recent outings against Wolverhampton Wanderers and Luton. 

Gabriel Jesus has never been a prolific scorer, but he is doing a fine job of connecting Arsenal’s play in the final third. Arteta’s side are beginning to get their football back and that will serve them well at Villa Park.

Watkins can make his mark against leaders

Ollie Watkins was outshone by Leon Bailey against Manchester City. The Jamaica international scored the only goal of the game and he was also Aston Villa’s biggest all-round threat.

But Watkins is undoubtedly Villa’s main man in attack and he can add to his goal tally for the season against Arsenal.

The England international has come on leaps and bounds under Emery’s guidance. His talent was always there, but Watkins has become a much more productive centre-forward since he began working with his current boss 13 months ago.

Only Erling Haaland, Mohamed Salah, Son Heung-min and Jarrod Bowen have scored more goals this season than Watkins, who also ranks joint-second in the division for assists.

Against an Arsenal team that conceded three times last time out, Watkins can make his mark.

A London-based football specialist, Greg Lea has written for multiple top publications including The Guardian and ESPN with coverage of the Premier League, Champions League and World Cup. He contributes football betting tips to The Independent.