Aston Villa vs Man City predictions: Premier League tips
Aston Villa vs Manchester City betting tips
Manchester City’s title defence has hit a rough patch after a run of three successive draws, dropping them to third place and leaving them in danger of being overtaken by Wednesday’s opponents, Aston Villa (8.15pm, Prime Video).
The Villans are enjoying an excellent campaign, entering December fourth in the table, one point behind the Cityzens, thanks in part to a fantastic run of results at home.
Unai Emery’s team are on a run of 13 straight league wins at Villa Park, stretching back to last season, while they’ve won seven of their last 10 games anywhere in all competitions.
No side has scored more goals at home in the top flight than Villa and they look to have the tools needed to test a leaky City defence.
With the volume of questions relating to City’s form and fitness only increasing after Sunday's 3-3 draw with Tottenham, Pep Guardiola will want to see a response from his treble-winners, setting the stage nicely for another Premier League thriller.
After looking at football betting sites, here are our three Aston Villa vs Man City predictions.
Villa faithful getting value for money
Given Aston Villa’s recent home results, it’s a surprise to see them as big as 15/4 in the Premier League odds to chalk up a 14th straight top flight success at Villa Park.
On the flip side, City are no bigger than 8/11, suggesting betting sites expect their run of draws to come to an end on Wednesday evening.
That will be easier said than done though given they’ll be missing midfield lynchpin Rodri through suspension.
The Spaniard has already served a two-game ban this season with City losing both matches he missed against Arsenal and Wolves, and Rodri’s absence will be keenly felt.
Guardiola is hopeful John Stones could return to the starting line up for the first time since the start of November and play in midfield, but his lack of action raises concerns.
City hold no appeal at odds-on, especially given they’ve conceded eight goals across their last three league games and now face a free-scoring Villa side.
Villa’s price on betting apps is hard to ignore, but recent results have masked some underwhelming performances, and they were fortunate to secure a 2-2 draw from last Sunday’s trip to Bournemouth.
The grind of a Europa Conference League campaign and competing towards the top of the table could be starting to take a toll on the Villa squad, making the result of this encounter tough to call.
The potential for a back-and-forth, end-to-end contest further muddies the match market waters and a safer option may be to back plenty of goals between the league’s two highest scorers.
Villa’s home matches this season have all featured at least four goals, averaging 4.7 goals per game, with Emery’s team defensively a mid-table side, ranking ninth for expected goals against at 20.2, according to Fbref.
Even with City potentially missing Kevin de Bruyne, Jack Grealish and Jeremy Doku, there’s still enough talent surrounding the ever-deadly Erling Haaland to expect a goal or two from a side that’s scored 11 across the last four games in all competitions.
Trying to keep up with Haaland in the Golden Boot race is Ollie Watkins, who notched his eighth of the season in the league at Bournemouth.
Watkins has thrived under Emery, leading an attack that’s scored two or more in 11 of their 13 consecutive home victories.
With Watkins, Haaland and a strong supporting cast on show, we’re backing over 3.5 goals with our first Aston Villa vs Man City prediction.
City old boy could come back to haunt them
Watkins isn’t the only Villan to have elevated his game under Emery with Douglas Luiz having also come on since the Spaniard’s appointment last October.
Luiz, who was recently called up to the Brazil squad and has been linked with a big-money move away Villa Park, has become a bigger threat offensively, registering 10 goals and seven assists in 40 league games under Emery.
He’s unrecognisable from the player City let go without him registering a senior appearance for the Manchester outfit and we’re backing him to stand out against his old side by registering a goal or assist at 3/1 with bet365.
The 25-year-old has recorded 10 goal involvements (six goals, four assists) for Villa this season across all competitions and is fourth on the team in shots per game, according to WhoScored.com.
All six of Luiz’s goals have come at home, while the Brazilian is also on penalty and free kick-taking duties for Villa and looks a considerable threat.
City must be wary of Villa trap
One of the unique features of Emery’s Villa side is their ability to catch opponents offside. Since his appointment, Villa have caught the opposition offside 171 times in the Premier League.
That’s significantly more than anyone else in the top flight during that period with Liverpool next on the list with 97 offsides.
Wednesday’s game is a good test of Villa’s offside trap with City having only been caught offside 12 times this season.
Both managers prefer a high defensive line and in a game that promises to be open, City could do well to maintain their ability to stay onside.
These two defences have caught opponents offside a combined 94 times this season, averaging out at 6.8 offsides per game, according to Fbref.
With the offside line set at 4.5 by new betting sites, we’re backing the over for our last Aston Villa vs Man City prediction.
Chris is an experienced sports betting writer who has worked with most major bookmakers and national media outlets, such as Racing Post and ITN. He covers a wide range of sports with his favourites being NFL, rugby, football and Formula 1.
